Member Info for Theborn

I've been caught out by Mano before and have bought in throughout the journey so I do have sympathy with price frustrations. However, I do believe on this occasion there is a positive outlook and story here and given the share cap the market might have missed it. Let's not forget this was a £6 share pre covid and on the past 6 months (following return to non-pandemic life) the figures indicate there is upside beyond even pre pandemic. This also excludes any upside on the BBL opportunity which I believe will be significant once they are confident to announce in full.

Take from that what you will but my feel is if share is trading at more than double current value in 3 months time that wouldn't surprise me. Then onwards to 3x and beyond after another year of positive normalised, non-pandemic business. Then add on another ?x multiple when BBL opportunity can be quantified in full.

I'm optimistic.

Did you not read the trading update last month?
They specifically said they'd issue a further update this month confirming figures once they'd completed their March year end. They've done exactly that and it's completely in line with what they said last month. Where is the problem?
This is clearly positive news again for future outlook and valuation so no idea why you'd look to put a negative spin on it.

I've loaded more this week following the cartel ruling. I think most holders are oblivious to things that really impact mano business.

Expecting bouncing between 250 and 300 until we run towards the march result announcement when hopefully some excitement will lush us towards 400 and the results themselves (and BBL update) will push back into normal 450-600 range

FTSE250 down 1.37%.....PFG down 7%. Again, any market dip and we are down at 5x the rate.

When FTSE250 up 1.4% last week, PFG flat.

This is part of the reason PFG ends up trading at a huge discount as this process forever repeats.

I also highly doubt Mano will have gone to the trouble of bringing onboard such a name (nor would Lord A have joined) if they weren't certain of the Bounce Back Loan partnership being highly successful to date and a huge revenue generating opportunity. I'm looking forward to the update in the Spring as my expectation (and hope) is then we'll see standard business volumes back above pre-covid, plus the bolt on of BBL. Shares were trading at £6 pre covid so combine this and I would hope to see >£6 in the near future.

Come to think of it, Peel Hunt said on 26th after TU that PFG was trading cheaply and gave a solid view. Weird how in a week they become more pessimistic. Pretty sure PH used to be an advisor to PFG but got kicked off the role. Maybe this is some sour grapes

I see Peel Hunt have stuck the knife in today. They have no idea what they are talking about. PFG have supposedly reigned in risk and already have significant provisioning in place. They've had minimal growth in the year and Peel Hunt talking like they've trebled their loan book. Bore off guys.

...and there we have it, the glory of holding PFG. Market up 3% yesterday, PFG flat. Market down today 0.7%, PFG down 4%.

These days kill me with PFG. FTSE250 up over 3%. PFG up 1%.
Look back to days when FTSE250 drops 2 or 3% - PFG drops 7-10%.
The recent rise was part market and part results expectation. But today just shows how annoyingly uncorrelated PFG is with market.
Should have been touching 270p throughout today.

I saw this in IC.
Thought it was very lazy journalism, as most stories that reference PFG are. Despite acknowledging PFG are no longer a doorstep lender, or even a sub-prime lender, he author want'ed to write about UK sub-prime debt and used PFG as a post to nail it to.
Hopefully once the VANQ name change does go ahead it might stop lazy journos Goolging 'sub prime UK lenders' and picking PFG as the subject even if completely none applicable.

Looks like 17Feb is next cut off, with new index members announced 21Feb. With a fair wind for next 3 weeks we might eek in.

This is helpful for the Vanquis rebrand: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PROVIDENT-FINANCIAL-PLC-9590111/news/Provident-Financial-PFG-named-European-Climate-Leader-AND-one-of-the-World-s-Most-Socially-Respons-42853414/

Needs market cap increase to get back into FTSE250 so then gets better broker coverage and trading interest. Pfg used to get 4 or 5 brokers / banks covering after every update. Now only seems like ShoreCap who act for PFG so can't share guidance regardless of how good their guidance is (and in this sector they are v good) and then a sporadic one from Barclays. Then whenever PFG gets momentum Canaccord (acting for NSF in failed takeover, I believe) always pop up and try to shoot PFG in the knees with a sell.

Haven't looked recently but suspect share price needs another 25% to be north of £3 to get back in 250.

Meanwhile us enduring shareholders wander on into the wilderness in the hope of finding the mythical promised land of a Capital Markets Day.

Folklore has it that many moons ago, when PFG promised a CMD they'd actually arrange one. We can but dream.

I noted the * to FINALLY acknowledge what 'management expectations' are. They must have read this forum.

I see all as very positive. Not overly sure on second charge mortgages going into a property value decline but depends on LTV and customer resilience. Let's see.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-affirms-oban-cards-2021-1-plc-24-01-2023

I see Vanquis have successfully structured their first securitisation whch should help reduce their cost of capital.

Seems Fitch have applied a good credit rating to the vehicle, in spite of increasing rates and inflation likely to impact customers. This is because PFG apparently already have prudent provisions in place if this were to happen. As we've mentioned previously, I suspect if anything PFG are over-provisioned at present which means upside to P&L once they are released. Management holding some back in the tank (allowing them to purchase shares at low value).

Fitch comment:
Fitch has a deteriorating asset performance outlook for unsecured ABS. Rising interest rates and high inflation will squeeze borrower affordability and lead to greater defaults in this sector. However, increases in defaults are already largely anticipated at the transaction level by the existing conservative base case.

Schroders topping up.
Hopefully they know something from management we don't.

Posted today on their website. Would hope for a guide on dividend too.

FY results published 31 March 2023.

Would hope for a TU next week. Last year it was 13 Jan. Although this year 13th is a Friday so would happily wait until the Monday otherwise the headlines write themselves....

and still awaiting the mythical Capital Markets Day....

Good investor presentation earlier. There is more than some material upside in the relatively short term on Mano.

Article from IC which I expect will turn much more bullish end of Q1 once BBL pilot expands, adverse case (hopefully!!) overtturned at COA and HSBC terms closed off. I topped up more first thing on the dip.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/11/10/manolete-falls-into-loss/