Member Info for Theborn

Seems a sector dip today. Hopefully can close 430p. To be honest I wouldn't mind a short term dip ahead of Thursday as I'll be looking to immediately reinvest the dividends.

Not sure if you guys have been tracking but in the background PFG have been announcing a couple of positive non-financial pressure articles in the last two weeks. Last week was about helping set up and fund a charity to help young kids from poor backgrounds get a step up. Then today: https://www.providentfinancial.com/media/newsroom/2019/2019-dow-jones-sustainability-indices-results-announced/

Concerted effort from management I think

I think some of Invesco's funds are facing some redemption issues (not on the Woodford scale), but they still hold >18% stake. Given Invesco thought NSF takeover was a good idea I'm not going to worry myself why they have sold a tiny portion of their holding yesterday.....I'll just embrace it.

The more I've read on Woody the more it seems he's re-positioning his funds to undervalued, listed investments. PFG is listed and on a fundamentals basis, probably the most undervalued of all his holdings. So I can't see him selling any of the PFG stake until the funds reopen for redemption in December and there will likely be a big run on it then (particularly if SJP pull their backing). This is when I see him dumping another large holding. The irony is, when Woody has finished the re-positioning he will have well diversified and liquid mix of stocks, many of which are undervalued due to the effect he's had on them / Brexit / China-v-US. If investors just hold their nerve when it reopens then they would probably be better placed leaving their funds with him as they'll probably do better than putting with another manager. Still, I won't sleep easy until Woodford is <10% holder in this.

So it was the Deputy and not the Sheriff who sold.
Even though it’s not Woody, Invesco selling down is still a positive. Each sell moves us further away from ever finding ourselves in an awful forced takeover scenario again as minority shareholders.

£6.5m sell trade just after lunch. My guess Invesco or Woodford. Price has held which is positive.

Grippa- whilst I appreciate having a camaraderie with other investors in pfg, I would never in a million years invest in a stock based on info and opinions from people on a chat room. My method is to educate myself as much as possible based on the past few years of company financials, investor buys, director buys and sector sentiment. If something comes in as undervalued then I’ll consider investing in good amount comfortable in the knowledge if it goes bad I only have myself to blame! I’m a big holder in pfg which I’ve built up over 6-9 months so my views are clearly going to support that so always spend time doing your own readership bud.

My honest view is this will be back £20+ in that time horizon. In 12 months home credit will be back in profit and delivering £50m+ in midterm; vanquis move from sub-prime to near-prime completed so profits increasing there to £220m+; and provided no blow-out in the auto industry then moneybarn £50m+. Earnings per share back in the £1.50 range should see the SP comfortably north of £20. Earnings £2+ then should be looking at £30 range. Entirely feasible if management continue the progress and keep regulator on side. Particularly as all PFG competitiors will be in line for a shake down from the FCA and some like NSF might even go pop (they can’t pay out dividends from capital and keep making losses for even.....the road ends somewhere)

So turns out it was Invesco selling down more - I suspect we'll see another RNS later seeing Coltrane or another large investor increasing by a similar amount.

Great news as far as I'm concerned. Could only be trumped if it was Woodford himself selling down. Let's wait and see.

We'll probably be back below £4 by close of play today so have another chance to load up then.
This thing just cant hold any sort of consistent gain. All well and good spiking 5% intraday but get zero momentum when closing flat. FTSE up 1% today so no excuse for PFG not to be 5%+ up by close. If I had to bet I'd say 410p close possible but 405p or less more likely.

It’s outrageous that at present NSF is trading at 80% of its price pre-PFG bid.

And PFG is only trading at 75% of its price pre-bid. Despite clearly being a much better investment than NSF.

Keep saying it but this is a £6+ share trading at sub-£4. If I’m honest I hope the price stays low until end of the month as will be reinvesting the dividend immediately on 27th along with a further top up if we are still sub-£4 at that time.

It supports the argument share prices strongly rebound when he sells out. Can interpret it either way:
1) Woodford is selling out of shares but holding onto those he sees as the most undervalued. PurpleBricks and NSF are both losing cash and in my view in risk of going belly up. So Woodford selling down implies he thinks similar. The fact he is holding PFG is a positive in the longer term as clearly he want to hold PFG until the last given it’s so undervalued and still has chance to give him some dividend income and upside in share price (particularly post Brexit)

2) Short term that’s bad news for us as the market senses he’ll ultimately have to sell, whether it’s before Xmas or next year, so price will be depressed until that happens.

I mentioned previously if I was Schroders I’d be talking to Coltrane and Blackrock about offering to take out all of Woodford’s holding perhaps at a 15% premium on today’s price at around £4.50. If they did this then they are still getting a bargain I’d in doing so I imagine the share price would almost instantly shoot higher than the purchase price perhaps into the £6-7 range which is where it should be priced now in my honest opinion of the fundamentals.

384 now. Down >5%.
Farce.

Back into 380s now. FTSE up 1.5%. PFG down 4%+.

I pray for the day when I don’t look at this share and just think ‘you are dog****’.

....didn’t even need Baz to curse it this time. Friday’s 3.5% gain completely wiped out in morning trading.

Hopefully this is a steady upward trend this time.....not to be reversed on Monday as we had on Wednesday.

150,000 by touching 390

Nerves are always the same with PFG....!

I’d be careful referring to information received from employees of the company on here, regardless of how vague or obvious it may be, just in case it’s deemed as sharing insider info....

Guarantor lending has been a target for the FCA for a few months now and they’ve made it known in the press. Speaking of FCA, it would be good to have the final announcement that the PFG settlement is complete and confirmation of how much upside can be released on the provision.

Agree. I think realistically the final dividend will be 11p.....so 20p overall as a worst case hopefully.

Did you see the Amigo news today? - their share price has been hammered 50%, and even though the articles are about the FCA turning focus to guarantor lending (which PFG does not do, but smaller competitors do), PFG is still being referenced in the articles in a negative light. It's becoming slightly boring now - classic lazy journalism where they don't even research the companies they are commenting on, but just pick a common name to stick the boot in.

I'd feel far better about life if this was >£4, even with the Woodford / Brexit affect. Being in the £3s just feels extremely unfair.

The news on Prothena just announced is interesting. Woodford sold his 22% stake for £50m and the shares instantly rallied 26% following the removal of the overhang risk. Granted his holding in PFG is 18% and valued closer to £170m, but supports the argument that if he was to sell PFG should be well North of £5 per share. Problem is I think PFG is even more undervalued than most of his other holdings so will cling on to it until the bitter end. Shame Schroders, SJP and Blackrock can’t do a deal to take 6% each and get him out completely for the benefit of everyone. £60m to each of them is relatively small fry.

There have been a number of offbook buys today in the even 5,000 - 10,000 share range. Just a hunch but wouldn't be surprised if Directors might be buying...but won't know until tomorrow if that's the case.