Member Info for Theborn

Big 729,000 share buy just before close which got the SP back to 440p. The earlier sells could have been selling from the woodford mandate and repurchasing in another name which again is positive. Shame the UT trade brought it down slightly as would have liked a second day of gains even if fractional. Let's see how tomorrow trades given there was another Director buy today at £4.38....again, another big tick in any case.

Very non-committal from Fitch as usual - unsurprisingly saying if the improvement in performance continues then we can expect an upgrade, but if improvement falls off then can expect a downgrade. Using lots of words to effectively say nothing at all. They are right that H2 will be important. On the call yesterday the management let a useful nugget of info slip - they said the area they are trialing the enhanced performance collection measures in CCD was previously the worst performing region in the UK, but after a few weeks of the new model it has gone from worst performing to best performing region in collections performance. Which bodes well for their plans to expand across other regions and nobody has picked up on in the media coverage (probably because most commentators don't bother to listen in to the result presentation).

Looking at trades today there were 3 big sell orders earlier for around 600,000 shares (so £2.5m) which may have been Woodford (I think its unlikely to be anyone else at that level other than him or Invesco), we'll find out later this week on RNS if so. There has also been a 100,000 buy.

Rockmill - I'm with you and I've suffered with PFG over the past few months and plan to do so in the longer term. My mandate is value investing but sometimes you have to wait longer than expected for others in the market to realize the value even if all the price indicators are screaming something is at bargain price. It's unbelievably frustrating though when it was trading at £5-£6.50 range on worse actual trading performance 12 months ago and here we are finally showing a true turnaround and we are still close to all time low pricing! I mean, Petra Diamonds was up 25% yesterday just from the CEO issuing a note to say he didn't agree with the current share price! PFG issue better than expected actual trading figures and we are up a couple of percent and dribbling back down.

6ssk - I'm sure there is still a bit of Woodford effect looming over, with MMs knowing if the price does hit a certain level they need to be prepared to price a large sell order for him and match off with buyers. There is also still some Brexit uncertainty weighing on the sector. But even factoring all this in we still have to be looking at a >£5 share price.

Thanks fellas - its good to be able to vent! Let's hope for some positive broker guides from the big boys (JP, Barclays, Goldman) in the next few weeks with price target in the £7 range. Just anything to give it a kick. Saying all this, I'd rather a return to slow upward trending rather than long term downward trend with upward spikes. I do think those results and some continued positive press will support than over the next 6-18 months.

I genuinely despair at the market reaction to this share. It’s shed 25% if it’s value in a little over a month on the back of an unfounded broker note, published robust results ahead of all analyst expectations amd with a raft of positive media coverage for the first time in 3 years and here we stand about 2% up from pre results close at £4.25. It’s an utter joke. I’m just very angry the value isn’t being reflected and it’s going to be another 3 months before we get chance of another boost. Would not surprise me if MMs dribbled it back below £4 in due course. Utter utter farce.

Not sure if anyone listened into the PFG call earlier, but they are very clear re Vanquis:
- profit in second half of year will be higher so broadly inline with 2018 on the FY2019,
-FY2020 will still remain broadly flat, then increase thereafter (5-10% pa mentioned).

This is not a result of the business deteriorating, but quite the opposite. They are balancing the business as they move out of higher returning / higher risk loans to lower returning / lower risk loans. So returns will be more stable and less at risk in the event of a severe downturn. So during this time while profit is flatlining, customers and quality of loans will be increasing still. Then you also have CCD and Moneybarn offsetting this flatlining.

I would guess H2 divi of 11p, so overall 20p. This hsould still be trading closer to 14x PE, but it might not hit that level until CCD is back in the black next year. Postive update and well presented.

Peel Hunt upgrades from Hold to Buy this am. Hopefully others follow.

Would like to see back over £5 this week. But all in all, positive numbers and no nasty surprises. This is always a longer term play and the positive messaging and press reporting this morning is far improved vs 12-18 months ago.

Need some positive broker reiterations now (I bet Canaccord won't play ball as usual).

7am. Interims.

A small dip before results is not a cause for concern. Given that nobody with inside information on the results is allowed to trade the shares and the extremely minimal volume traded so far today, I suspect this is more the market makers dipping the price a little to try and create some extra volume. Look at Metro as an example 6 months ago....share price went up 30%+ in the weeks leading to results and a further 10% on the day of results, then after results has crashed 90%. So a rise coming into results does not imply anything about the results.

I was more pleased to see Schroders further increasing their holding on both Wednesday and Thursday last week.

I'm not necessarily saying good news - but guessing inline / broadly positive. But not bad (hopefully).

But my view is this share is currently priced based on a potential capital shortfall from the unfounded Canaccord note, so results that show broadly inline profitability along with a capital buffer should see it return to >£5 where it was before the Canaccord note.

Schroders increased their holding on Wednesday (that was likely the price spike). Very positive news right before interims.

Not sure I’m smoking what your are smoking Nightingale. I was in on this a few months back and sold out at a loss. Until PE come closer to 12x, or sub £3 I wouldn’t be touching with a barge pole. Share price is more volatile than Roy Keane in acid.

Even on a normal multiple of 11x, based on this years EPS alone then £6 today would not be overvalued.
Let's see what happens next week.

Again, to caveat, this is just my view, but I mentioned a week or so ago there are probably a number of investors sat on the sidelines who have noted the share price is a bargain but were just holding out to see if it the price went any lower and waiting for as close to interims as possible. As there has been no updates pre interims (i.e. if PFG were issuing a negative update on trading forecast or on capital they'd have had to tell the market by now) then we'll hopefully see a continued rally up to 29th June as more people buy in now to avoid missing the boat.

Then, ideally, I further immediate jump if the results are inline / positive. Here's hoping we are looking at 450p by 29th and 550-600p by close of play 30th.

At the ex-div date, which should be announced in the results next week. If they are targeting payment in early Sept then would expect ex-div to be early August as ex-div date is usually a month before the payment date.

I suspect (and from a personal perspective hope) that by announcing the dividend in the results next week we'd see a positive reaction on the share price. So the value on buying in is probably now (or at least this week), but in the same breath you are taking a risk on the results being inline with expectation. So on today's share price your divi yield is close to 7%, but if it recovers again to >£5 where it was a month ago then yield falls to more like 5%. Ifs and buts, I know.

Just my opinion, dyor etc etc.

10p final dividend has recently been paid in respect of the 2018 year.

Current year (2019, which we are awaiting half-year results for next week) is targeting c.54p earnings per share. The company aim to pay out roughly half the EPS as dividend split across interim and full year divi. So if 55p is the target, you'd expect 27p in dividends split roughly 12p interim and 15p final. Interim dividend would be paid in September I believe.

Going forwards they'll continue to look to pay interim and final dividends and will be based on the EPS formula above. So you'd expect in future years the EPS to continue to grow and therefore so will the interim and final divis

I gather their target is to halve the HC loss this year (so down from c.£37m last year to c.£18m FY19), then FY20 break even, then profitable from there on.

Think they already highlighted the job losses / cost saving in the previous update.

Keep the faith. If there were any proper nasties in there then they'd have had to notify the market by now. So given the market is pricing this as if the company is going to publish nightmare results, even average performance should give a big kick to the SP.

Was thinking the same. I’m guessing with results next week and slow summer trading in general maybe volume is just low

£800k buy just gone thru.
I do think the closer we get to 30th more and more large investors will stop sitting on their hands and start buying in to avoid missing the boat.