Member Info for Theborn

I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the UT trades personally. We hit 390+ this morning and with buys nearly doubling sells consistently all day we see the price fall over 6% from 9am to market close.

Like I say, this share just gets abused. Utter dog.

Approaching ex-div the price should be increasing, not decreasing.

The problem we have with PFG is, nearly all the trades that go on each day are algo driven, with automated orders being spat out my systematic trading systems. On the systematic trading books, PFG will be ranked in a financial services basket, which means automatic algo trading will push it down each time the general global economy is having a bad time, and chances of recession increase.....so a bad day for Wall St is exactly that. Unfortunately PFG is also now a smaller cap and has exposure to some non-prime, so on a bad day where an RBS might go down 0.5%, we see PFG down 4%.

However, the real real problem is that when the market bounces, PFG doesn't bounce with the same delta on which it falls. For example, the FTSE is back to where it was in Jun-18.....PFG was trading at 650p then. Yes they didn't knock the lights out later that year but there is no doubt the business is in a better position now that it was 12 months ago, yet its apparently now worth nearly 50% less than it was then!

If the positive results, the Director buy and constant days of buys outnumbering sells is still doing nothing to stop the price falling, then we won't see any upside on this for at least 6 months until Brexit is resolved and they full year financials are out. The only minor miracle might be if we heard Woodford has agreed to sell all his holding to another institution which would remove the overhang risk. If that happened then I think we'd see a very significant bounce - possible back to 650p levels. I'm sure this will happen eventually, but with Brexit looming and the share price falling consistently, why would an institution step in now when they might be able to buy him out at 250p in 6 months time. Equally, Woodford appears to think PFG is his most undervalued stock which is why he holding onto it to the bitter end. And with his fund not set to reopen for redemptions this side of Xmas, I can't see Woodford looking to sell this year at what he (and all of us on this chat) deem stupidly cheap levels.

I'm not selling as sod's law will dictate the moment I do we have the bounce, so will sit here and watch my paper wealth dwindle away for the foreseeable future!

I forget who asked previously but I'm not linked to PFG in any way, just a moderately sophisticated investor who aims to value invest and takes it very personally when undervalued companies continue to lose value without any real rationale...

This really is such a **** show of a share. An absolute dog.

Down 4% today to all time lows despite the good results and director buys. I don’t know why I bother checking each day. It’ll be below £3 by the time Q3 trading update and Brexit date roll around.

Minimal trading but still way more buys than sells.
I can't even try to justify it anymore.
Director bought another £50k on Friday at £3.80.
I just have to laugh and let nature take its course. I really wouldn't be amazed to see this at £3.50 this week.

RNS is no big deal. Schroders did the same last week. Reduced holding slightly then next day it was back to where it was before. I think they just juggle cfd positions.

Re nose bleed.....the face we are celebrating a 2p rise says it all....we’ll be back down close to 350p by market close, you watch. The rest of the volatile share market has surged today - Metro, Manolete, Petra. PFG - no chance. Same old sh’t!

364p now....timberrrrrrr

Buys 2x sells again. Remembering to keep laughing fellas. This is utter madness.

Each day hitting new lows. 366 gone now. This will close sub 360 today and 350 by weekend. Might be a 350 bounce but not holding my breath. It’s just getting unfairly killed.

Metro is up 10% today!! Which is far worst performing. Based on no news. Yet we get Eccles every time

This is heading for £3 fellas.
If day after day buys out weight sells, positive results, upgrading of price targets from brokers won’t stop in then nothing will. I darent share my paper loss at present but let’s say it’s a large multiple of the numbers below. Not selling as I still trust my initial assessment and target valuation. I’m just devastated I couldn’t have bought in now rather than averaging at 450p. But who the hell coild have predicted a 30% fall in the past week on the back of positive news. Sometimes you just have to accept it as bad luck.

Agree this won’t change unless something significant happens. Next update is 31 October, or Brexit day. So even if they shoot the lights or with their trading up date, knowing our luck Brexit will smash it thru the floor again. I’ve taken to laughing at the situation now rather than rage.

Good luck fellas. 2-5 years we’ll be back £15+. Much love

And that came out this morning. And you can read that either way. I haven't seen if they reiterated their price target of 500p from last week but I'd guess so.

Analysts are a creature unto their own. PFG is at 380p, and if you strip out the 9p dividend and factor in one more poor trading session and the share price is as 350p, which is asset value. Now, its fine analysts giving price targets of 500p, 550p or 650p+, but why issue a HOLD with it? Surely if you think a share is worth 500p like Shore do, and its trading at 25-30% discount to that value, then surely that would make it a BUY?!? Particularly when the company isn't a tech co burning cash where there is a lot of risk, but a company that has been around for 150 years doing this business that is cash generative, had a major fvck up but has returned to profit for the past 18 months.

Also, my view on Brexit / Trump / global downturn is that in the near prime sector in the UK.....it doesn't really impact. Many people on PFG's books will be in the same position if the economy is flying or in the doldrums. It's just whether they are earning from a pay cheque or a giro. Particularly now the business is moving away from sub-prime to near-prime / prime then their overall loan book will be fairly sticky after then next 12 months of churn to bring the bad debts from the old book in line. Look, Vanquis is a great business they built from small sandcastles fairly recently. And it was there to steady the ship when the move from self employed to employed agents on the home credit business blew up spectacularly. Money barn is flying along. This is a three pronged business. And a business that in the next 2-5 years when performing (and keep in mind the new management are competent and performing and proved that in their last results) should be delivering: £1+ EPS from Vanquis; 30-50p EPS from Home Credit (And growing); and 25-50p EPS from Moneybarn. Conservative basis £1 EPS per annum, but realistically in the mid term £1.80+......with half paid out as dividends. And here we are, hitting 370p today (same equity value as the Balance Sheet). And thats why at the moment train tracks look so appealing to me!

Good luck all.

I might duck out of the chat for a few weeks just for my own wellbeing.....but hopefully I duck back in at £6+.

I'm literally suicidal now with this share. No negative news out, way more buying than selling again today, but they've plunged it again for no reason.

Fvcking disaster. It needs to go up 25% just to get back to where it hit after the results announcement last week...and nearly 40% to get back over £5.

Where is the nearest train track....

They had a couple of positive ones on PFG recently.
Really need a positive broker note / upgrade from Numis, Barclays, Berenberg or JPM (Canaccrod can do one).
Two other irons in the fire which should / may produce positive news: 1) settlement of the FCA inquiry into Moneybarn. Its settled but they won't confirm the provision release until the final letter, but will be upside to P&L; ans 2) PFG applied for funding to expand its lending to small businesses / sole traders (its on their website recent news). If that is approved it would be a big boost and effectively free money form the government.

Now at 390. Nearly 20% down from the price it hit last week after interims. Down over double the rest of the market. I can see this just continually heading south towards 350. I bought more yesterday but it’s trying my patience now. If goes below 350 will consider buying more. I might just avoid looking at the price on this for 12 months and avoid ruining my day each day...

That’s just the usual end of day Uncrossing Trade. Happens each day at 16:35. Wouldn’t pay too much attention to the volume of it, more the price.

So another day begins:
- Hand steel toe boots to the market
- Open legs wide and close eyes
- And there we go, another direct kick in the nuts.

Taking out He dividend we hit 6 year low earlier today. Unreal. Kick kick kick. Nuts nuts nuts!!

I agree global events are adding a lot to this - it seems like at any point in the past couple of years PFG publish positive news a major negative macro event hits, then when it passes other stocks recover and this languishes.

My main concern is the ftse is down 2% yet PFG is down 5% today. Smae on Friday, ftse down 2%, PFG down 3%. There are much ****tier, operationally cash losing business, which are far more exposed that PFG which are performing better than PFG over the past week - Dixons; PurpleBricks; Metro......yet PFG always takes the brunt of it.

Very low volumes today but buys strongly outweighing sells consistently all day, yet the price has plunged in troughs. Its not like a big sell went thru at 410 causing the drop to 400......its just the bookies have kept it going south.

No doubt we'll get a bounce in the markets later this month but PFG won't rebound with the same correlation it does when heading south.

I'm here long term too fellas having averaged in at £4.50ish. Infuriates me the market can't see what I'm seeing here.

I'm starting to struggle. I appreciate the ftse has also been smashed this past week but we are back down at 407p, so pricing in the dividend we are back below 400p.
Each day is one kick in the nuts after another with this.
Interims couldn't have been much better all things considered yet price does everything possible to shaft us. I'm in for long term but please just give me a glimmer of light and get back over £5 ffs.

My sentiments exactly.

However, someone needs to tell the share price....just hit 416p, now below where it was before results announced. Results should have added 20%+ to the SP yet here we are 2% down. It's just utterly insane.

Its on today's RNS - If you scroll down to the section where it says position following notification. So has gone from just under 21% to just over 21%.

Looks like the big trades on wed were invesco buying shares from schroders. Surprised invesco are buying more.

Share price is currently where is was pre results. What a complete farce.

There is no question the FCA have targeted the biggest in the industry to make a point and pfg now have what looks like a very good relationship with the regulator. Next on the FCA list will be pfg competitors and guarantor loan providers.

Pfg have such sh*t luck with timings. They’ve announced their best results in a week when the FTSE is probably down the most it’s been in a single week for the year so far, and the shares are being dragged down. I mean, their q3 update is due out on Brexit day! Give me a break.

I’m not selling either but it’s soul destroying to see it dribble back each day when the company has clearly crossed a turning point.

And so it continues, the slow, senseless dribble back to £4. I give up!