Member Info for the_shareminator

"If Allied Gold IPOs at the mooted $1.2 billion valuation, that would equate to around $18.6m of shares for CAPD, i.e more than 10% of CAPD's m/cap by itself, and a nice $10m+ profit over the $7.7m valuation in the 2022 accounts."

If that is the case, very well spotted! Were Capital's holding previously illiquid? Still a net gain of $10m following the completion of the IPO wouldn't be insignificant for a company of CAPD's size

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/05/11/2667358/0/en/Allied-Gold-Corp-Limited-Allied-Merger-Corporation-and-Mondavi-Ventures-Ltd-Announce-Binding-Letter-of-Intent-for-Business-Combination-and-Financing-for-Minimum-Proceeds-of-US-300-.html

Bankrupty - "$2050 and currently at $1987 is about a 3% drop off an all time high....."hammered" is not 3% imo"

Believe you meant 0.3% drop? Agree with your analysis, gold is holding up well considering how more 'stable' investments over recent years, particularly property prices, are now performing and suspect there is more pain to come.

Assuming gold trades below $2,000/oz Shanta will still produce inflation beating figures this year thanks to Singida coming online.

If the Board do decide to increase the dividend closer to 4% I suspect many investors would add to their existing holdings at the current price level. It could help to stir interest it what otherwise appears to be a forgotten share. Incredible value offering right looking forward 8-9 months to year end results.

Favourable fundamentals will out, recovering well these past 2-3 weeks. Premier African Minerals has done 100% in 6 months so unsurprising interest is growing here :)

One can only hope. It does feel different this time with USD in retreat, banking crisis deepening etc

bonker99 - lining up a number of buying opportunities for tomorrow open, hoping for a slow start here but there are so many cheap goldies about right now! Do you have a top 5?

Angelis - Mali has been in the same state of 'civil war' for the past five years. Throughout that time there has been military backed coups, Western military has pulled out in favour of Russian backed mercenary group Wagner (arguably more effective at killing jihadis and quelling dissent), surrounding African countries placed an embargo on the country making it harder to export... None of that has stopped Hummingbird from producing. You only have to look at Sudan as an example to see how easy it would be for another state on that continent to collapse. Arguably Mali is safer than many given it's military run the south with the support of ruthless Wagner group. As with all African based investments there is a degree of risk that anything could happen, there is no such thing as a safe African based investment.

Imagine thinking any mine located on the African continent is without risk..

There is risk attached to ALL of these companies, even majors like Centamin that have operated for years. Do people not understand it's why their market valuations are permanently discounted in comparison to peers based in North America, Western Europe and Australia.

Holding all the aforementioned for sake of clarity, more of this than HUM but still enough to enjoy the recent correction and long may it continue!

Taseko Mines announced updated economics for its 100%-owned Florence Copper Project at the end of March.

"The technical work completed by Taseko in recent years has been extensive and has de-risked the project significantly. The PTF operated successfully over an 18-month period and provided a valuable opportunity to test operational controls and strategies which will be applied in future commercial operations. In addition, a more sophisticated leaching model has been developed and calibrated to the PTF wellfield performance. This detailed modeling data, along with updated costing, has been used to update assumptions for the ramp up and operation of the commercial wellfield and processing facility."

Project Highlights:
Net present value of US$930 million (after-tax, at an 8% discount rate)
Internal rate of return of 47% (after-tax)
Payback period of 2.6 years
Operating costs (C1) of US$1.11 per pound of copper
Annual production capacity of 85 million pounds of LME grade “A” cathode copper
22 year mine life
Total life of mine production of 1.5 billion pounds of copper
Total estimated initial capital cost of US$232 million remaining
Long-term copper price of US$3.75 per pound

Stuart McDonald, President & CEO of Taseko, stated, “Despite global cost inflation in recent years, the Florence Copper Project continues to demonstrate robust economics and remains one of the lowest capital intensity copper development projects in the world.

The operational experience and technical information that we gained through the PTF testwork has been invaluable and we’re well positioned to build and operate the commercial-scale ISCR facility. The new Technical Report includes updated capital cost estimates based on detailed engineering and recent contractor and vendor quotations. The main cost increases relate to construction labour and wellfield drilling costs which impact both initial and sustaining capital costs.”

“The inflationary environment we have been in has also driven copper prices higher. With a lack of new mines being developed today and copper’s critical role in the global energy transition, the long-term price outlook remains very attractive for copper producers.The low-carbon, low impact production method at Florence Copper is expected to make it a preferred supplier of green, low carbon copper in the US domestic market. With procurement of long-lead items well advanced, we are ready to commence construction of the commercial facility following the issuance of the final UIC permit in the coming months,” Mr. McDonald concluded.

https://www.tasekomines.com/investors/news-releases/taseko-announces-improved-economics-for-its-florence-copper-project

60 days chart of both gold and silver are uncanny and equally beautiful

https://goldprice.org/

Shorteverything - Similar to many other gold producers in the past week then? CGH, PAF, HUM, AAZ, WPM, HOC, CEY, RSG .. all following the same trend. Which goes to show this isn't a 'Shanta issue' but more a sector confidence one.

No. Simply a distraction from what is actually happening. Singida is on course to generate $20 million revenue this quarter. What exactly would extra funding be needed for?

Oh disregard that post, those figures and indeed LSE's update list doesn't appear to be working.

Operational Update for the six months ended 31 Dec 2022
https://www.investegate.co.uk/pan-african-resources-plc--paf-/prn/operational-update-for-the-six-months-ended-31-dec-2022/20230130070000PD6A5/

“Pan African has again delivered an excellent operational performance, achieving record gold production in excess of 108,000oz for the Current Reporting Period. This exceeded the expected 105,000oz announced in the Group’s December 2021 production update... The reduction in the Group’s net senior debt to US$23.9 million represents a 60.1% decrease relative to the outstanding net senior debt at 31 December 2020, notwithstanding the payment of a record final Rand dividend for the June 2021 financial year."

For an idea of last years output, average gold price and average AISC see the link below. Pan African are throwing off more cash than they ever have done!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PAF/provisional-summarised-audited-year-end-results-mmho6ygpxo0lf2g.html

Indeed for anyone who missed it

In conjunction with CAML’s 2022 annual results, the Board proposes a final 2022 dividend of 10 pence per Ordinary Share. This brings total dividends (proposed and declared) for the year to 20 pence (2021: 20 pence) which represents 47% of free cash flow. The final dividend is payable on 23 May 2023 to shareholders registered on 28 April 2023. This latest dividend will increase the amount returned to shareholders in dividends since the 2010 IPO listing to $299.0 million.

https://wp-caml-2023.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/12/CAML_AR22_WEB_FINAL.pdf

Top up time although risky with the metallurgical coal price down to $200/tn

How much further can steel prices fall? They were down over 50% last year and prices haven't recovered despite China reopening and the potential boost to it's construction sector. The price of coal and gas being so low could well be factoring in recession in the second half which is not guaranteed at any rate. The markets cannot agree on the future pace of rate rises nor accurately predict the rate of inflation month to month so it's hard to place any degree of confidence in their longer term forecasts.

Agreed although one point , New Luika annual production guidance was set at "approximately 66,000 - 72,000 oz at an AISC of US$1,200 - 1,300 /oz" which works out to be 51,000 oz Q2-Q4. Even a 93,000 oz year would blow the current share valuation out the water and there is scope for exceeding 100,000 oz if they achieve top-end guidance at NLGM and continue to exceed previous Singida guidance;

"Production guidance for the Singida Gold Mine will be released following the commencement of commercial production, however the current life of mine plan guides for approximately 32,000 oz pa"

In terms of expertise in their respective field we have Attie Roux who was the COO of Endeavour Mining Corporation about 5-6 years ago. He oversaw it's development and growth over a seven-year period. Prior to that he worked for AngloGold Ashanti as a metallurgist for more than 30 years including at some of AngloGold's most successful mines in West Africa, including Siguiri (Guinea), Iduapriem and Obuasi.

Aya Garibou with over 25 years experience in the mining industry, working for AngloGold Ashanti from until 2019 as process plant operator among over leadership roles. I believe he has a 'junior team' working beneath him including mining engineers Aboubacar Bore, Alassane Traoré, Adama Diarra among others.

Aya’s extensive mining industry, local African expertise and leadership skills on site are critical in insuring our ongoing strong health and safety track record are maintained.

While not an engineer Dr Belinda van Lente is a Senior Resource Geologist with about 18 years experience in the mining industry, primarily on Mineral Resources estimation, specialising in archaean and epithermal gold deposits across West Africa.

DusterMan - agreed this has taken the market by surprise. Similar turnaround with Resolute Mining earlier this year, both based in and around the same neck of the woods. Hummingbird were heavily discounted last year and have a long way to go in addressing investor concerns however they have clearly got a grip on the operational side of things. Assuming this continues in the current quarter and uncertainty further wanes, with gold trading approximately $100/oz higher they will be able to cut net debt by around a quarter from it's current level whilst bringing Kouroussa (apologies spelling?) into commission.

In terms of tracking price movement this is one of the more difficult stocks due to so many twists and turns (many of which have damaged sentiment) and this is why there has been a value disconnect for so long. It's not unique to this company either, Shanta Gold (£135m mcap) being in a similar position. FWIW I don't see a sudden doubling of the share price this quarter but assuming further steady production and the new mine completing on time and on budget Hummingbird will likely be trading at or around £100m before the next update.

Retest of gold's 52 week high $2,043.9 this morning. Gold briefly got to $2,043.2 no doubt thanks to reducing US inflation coupled with impending recession and hints from the Fed minutes of rate reversal coming sooner.

booboouberbear good post! There are more pitfalls when it comes to mining ;)

Just to add to the point about liquidity, Shanta have been running approx $7-8m CAPEX at Singida each quarter up until last quarter and now that the major capital costs have disappeared there should be a significant increase in liquidity, particularly in Q3 once ramp up is nearing peak target production.