Member Info for the_shareminator

They are heavily loss making and haemorrhaging cash.

Net cash of $86 million to net debt of $151 million in just 9 months..

Share price weakness due to delays and pushback of original schedule. The company were anticipating monthly run rate of 40,000 US short tons per month into the final quarter and deployment of the second Highwall Miner machine by now.

In the last week of October Bens Creek announced the commencement of mining on the new permitted area and that the second highwall miner will be deployed as soon as it arrives (this month?)

It's a waiting game at this point but I agree the Interim results can't come soon enough. The market is crying out for financials and the outlook as we enter 2023. At least the coal price is back above $280.

Last quarterly update strong with hedged ounces at $1900/oz

The Group maintains its full year 2022 production guidance of 345,000oz, noting the strong performance at the Syama Sulphide and Mako operations which are expected to offset Syama Oxide's lower production. The higher production at Syama Sulphide and Mako is expected to largely mitigate inflationary pressures including elevated fuel and consumable prices experienced in 2022. As a result, the Group maintains its cost guidance at an AISC of $1,425/oz.

Net debt below $100m by end of Q1 March 2023

Dividend growth should be well ahead of current 10% inflation given the sector outlook

No reason why HOC won't make new lows given operations are currently loss making. Last quarter was the strongest all year and yet net debt increased more than 40% to $151 million in 3 months. Commodity prices have since slipped further, inflation woes and now more trouble with the locals.

Of all the bombed out precious metal stocks to pick..

All sorts of companies going cheap but you would rather waste your precious time deramping here..

KEFI is a basket case that has been promising financing for years. That can will likely be kicked down the road again. It was 10p a share back in 2010-11 and it has since gone through a share consolidation. I'll stick with Shanta another 12 months at this price..

As per the Q2 results (21 July): "Singida construction is fully funded through to first production. Singida construction is 63% complete at the end of June 2022 (51% at end of Q1) and on track for first gold production in March 2023."

Fast forward to Q3 results (26 October): "Singida remains on track and on budget for first gold pour in March 2023. Construction is 78% complete at the end of September 2022."

In terms of liquidity Shanta was able to fund CAPEX of $13.4 m last quarter, $7.0 m of which went into Singida. This compared to group capital expenditure of $10.9 m and $6.1 m for Singida in Q2. There's approximately $12 m in construction costs remaining (at the end of September 2022) which is comfortably supported by ongoing quarterly cash-flow and the $14m liquidity position.

H2 cash-flow increase

As announced in May, production is weighted approximately 65% towards H2 2022. Shanta are mining the high-grade Bauhinia Creek crown pillar which began in April 2022. The crown pillar consists of approximately 83,000 tonnes grading 8.4 g/t containing around 22,500 ounces.

Singida development costs are already accounted for this quarter and next and will be met through current cash-flow so what are you talking about when you say "They have lots to lay out on all fronts and it’s very normal when building a new project!"?

You say you're not deramping but it clear you are here to talk down the stock. Gold price movements are somewhat mitigated by part hedging in the coming period ($1600-$1900/oz range).

Regardless of whether an offer is made, the company will continue to produce and sell about 6-7koz gold per month funding the forecast group expenditure of ongoing exploration and the Singida mine development.

Are we supposed to reply with our recent successes? I made silly money in MBO this past week. Buying what I can when I'm able to here.

There will be plenty here who will be loading up between now and a supposed 7-8p retracement but good luck playing the waiting game.

Transnet strike makes now the time to buy Kumba and Thungela

Herenya Capital Advisors’s Petri Redelinghuys on the charts for Thungela and Kumba as they both struggle with the Transnet force majeure and following Tasneem Samodien from Old Mutual talks the return to coal and if it’ll last.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-podcasts/moneyweb-now/transnet-strike-makes-now-the-time-to-buy-kumba-and-thungela/

Both GDP and SHG on the move today. Hold for substantial rerate

The latest results were nothing to worry about in the grand scheme of things. The market will absolutely respond positively if news of one or more of the three approaches is progressing and an offer is made. Just one offer will send the price back up to recent highs ~13p level (more if it's a generous initial bid).

Regardless of whether an official bid comes the company is on track to boost quarterly production from roughly 17-18koz this year to 25-26koz in 2023, 27-28koz in 2024 and 30koz in 2025 from NLGM and Singida only.

The rate of capital expenditure compared to forecasts has been consistent throughout Singida development and there's no reason to expect the company to fall short (of cash) at the final hurdle (literally the preceding quarter!).

The best outcome for genuine holders here in the short term is of course an offer is forth-coming this quarter however I hope this stock is not taken over on the cheap like TSG, HGM and POG have been in recent years.

https://www.shantagold.com/_resources/Singida%20Construction%20Update%20v2%2031_08_22.pdf

Disclosure: Long term holder currently adding

We need to see some financials or ideally this month a comment from the Board concerning current earnings expectations. If this company is currently as profitable as many here expect (myself included) interest will return.

Talk about teasing the market, that last titbit really sent buyers into overdrive lol

Not investment advice. Just a note to self, keep buying! Shares are worth at least 16p, the placing price offered to new investors before dividends began being distributed. All metrics improving or set to improve in the coming years. Production profile just about to enter exciting growth phase. Quite honestly with shares trading so low all offers should be rejected outright and the company pursue an aggressive strategy of buy backs

https://www.mining.com/coal-price-renaissance-how-long-can-it-last/

Excellent set of Interim Results for the 6 months to June which more than warrants a rerating to the 280-300p range.

Not only has the H1 2022 dividend increased 25% to 10p offering what will likely be an annual yield of 9% at the current price but the company's cost base are benefitting from the depreciating North Macedonian Denar. In terms of value proposition on the markets the company look increasingly better value as Sterling also continues to fall and they churn Dollar profits.

Valued at $460 million with cash in the bank of approximately $40 million following the recent repayment of the entire corporate debt facility, the company looks to be trading on a P/E of 3.6 at current metal prices and assuming the USD strength begins to reverse in the coming months (certainly through next year) then commodity prices will once again move higher.

Encouraging set of Interim Results released on Thursday following on from the production update mid
July with FY guidance maintained at 54,000 to 58,000 gold equivalent ounces.

There is some uncertainty surrounding the transition of operations from Gedabek, our sole existing mine to both the Hasan gold vein at Gosha and at Vejnaly during the second half. These were scheduled for the second half originally according to company reports six months back with Zafar planned for 2023 and now the company have stated that will happen in Q4 with Zafar coming online in the next 12 months. Gedabek production is clearly running at or above forecasts as the company seem confident guidance will come in at the higher end despite minor delays bringing Hasan and Vejnaly into the fold.

As expected the company have declared an Interim Dividend of US 4 cents which puts us on course towards an annual 8.0 cents, which thanks to the Pounds woeful performance is yielding almost 10% on an annual basis.

With commodity prices weakening in recent weeks it is more important now that the company make actual progress on achieving their stated short term goal; to increase production - "Our near-term focus continues to be increasing production at our currently active contract areas of Gedabek, Gosha and Vejnaly"

Anglo have stated in even stronger terms their strategy is to "transition into a mid-tier copper-focused producer" to position itself for the upcoming "electrification and decarbonization era"

Of interest concerning the cash position Anglo Asian keeps its significant surplus cash deposits in United States dollars "with a range of banks to both ensure it obtains the best return on these deposits and to minimise counterparty risk". This ensures limited protection against cost price inflation in country and means 25% of the company's market price is covered or approximately 37-38% when also factoring in unsold inventory.