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Looks positive here going into 2023 and beyond. 10% dividend supported by better than expected results and profits forecast to be up despite a small fall in revenue.

Smiths News: Better FY22 than expected; 10% dividend yield
Smiths News’ FY22 results were strong, with revenue and profit ahead of market expectations. Continuing adjusted PBT increased by 0.6% to £31.1m as financing costs reduced and net debt fell to £14.2m. Management was successful in mitigating inflation and controlling costs within budget. FY23 has started well, with uplifts in one-shot revenues and ancillary income. However, we have upgraded our forecasts, and an increase in the discount rate has driven a decrease in our DCF valuation from 94p to 89p. Smiths News trades on an FY23e P/E of 3.8x with a 10% yield, which we believe is attractive for a company with such cash-generative characteristics.

Confidence at this level. Might they announce another end of year share buyback shortly like they did last year..

First time i can recall the company mentioning a figure and a preliminary date for Zafar although there has been talk of ramping up production previously so this is welcome news.

Zafar entering production in H223 is the first step towards becoming a 100,000oz per annum producer.

As my fellow holder below mentions it would be more reassuring if we also learnt the true costs in the near term and whether our 8-9% dividend will remain safe

Unless you feel like the Half Year results due in 4 weeks will be disappointing I wouldn't be selling today. The outlook for 2023 should be extremely positive with forecast increases of production, improving cost control and reducing capital expenditure on equipment.

boobooberbear gets it! ;)

The amount of uncertainty that has prevailed both in the macro environment (pandemic, inflation, wild currency swings, market performance, global recession etc) and more specifically with Shanta (poor H1 production, new debt facility, takeover interest) plays a much greater role than simply gold price movements and exploration updates.

Today's update is very significant not least because it signals to big players that West Kenya project will garner even greater interest from outside parties.

Near surface "bonanza-grade gold intercepts at Isulu including grades of 721 g/t, 210 g/t, 172 g/t, and 93 g/t"

Going back to the original point I was attempting to make uncertainty is set to reduce here from March 2023. Questions by some here over liquidity and cash-flow will disappear. The net debt will turn cash positive and there is the potential for selective capital investment at the two producing mines to grow the expected 100koz gold production in future years.

If Shanta can agree JV terms on the West Kenya project with a major solely at a project level similar to how Ariana have handled their maiden mine then it would make much faster inroads to not only developing the project but increasing the market value here, removing any uncertainty over funding and future direction. That would be my ideal 6-12 month hope. Any takeover approaches will hopefully continue to be batted away by our Board.

Currently the Seaborne thermal prices are retreating with coal from South Africa’s Richards Bay dropping to $169.44 a tonne on Nov 9, down 56% from its all-time high of $385.94 on Aug 22.

Coal for delivery to northwest Europe ended at $177.29 a tonne on Nov 9, a decline of 58% from its peak of $424.97 on June 23.

Pleasantly surprised by the strong bounce back. Low 60s oversold level back to a more reasonable 94 pence. As others have voiced here already it is frustrating to not know capital spending plans in the coming year. The market seems to be turning a blind eye to weak production and focusing on the scale of Anglo’s new concessions. Strong market interest suggests a whiff of JV partnership line up. We could use the extra pairs of hands!

No cheap takeover is the best outcome for all genuine long term shareholders.

Yes it would have been better if the negotiating period had been extended, simply to keep interest stoked and keep volumes high. Will it make any difference in 6 months time when Shanta are due to stop spending $7-8m worth of NL mine cash flow on Singida mine development each quarter?

Likely the only people that would have benefited from a hostile takeover would be the day traders and those new to this journey. With gold trading north of $1750/oz there is every reason to be buying at 10p for the inevitable rerate coming in the not too distant future.

Even better for those buying in the low 30s but still decent value

According to the presentation the retail offer is only available for holders in New Zealand and Australia

Not great for existing shareholders but short term price weakness means Resolute will move into a net cash position during H2 2023.

Indeed it could well be the beginning of a PGM rally and a period of Dollar weakness into the new year. That would help breath life back into the sector.

Time to speculate with these beat up small-caps.

Experienced investors here will give others time, help and the benefit of the doubt most of the time when someone has a genuine question however when people come onto an investment board and talk down a stock while not knowing the first thing about basic company reporting terms you are bound to face some backlash.

And no they have not essentially drawn $151m.. they have drawn down on approx $320m! That is their total debt position. They have cash of approx $169m.. the difference is known as the net cash or net debt position. HOC have a net debt position of $151m and it is set to climb much higher next year.

For context Publican was unable to differentiate between net cash/debt position vs total cash and total debt.. so he sold and is back here to talk down the price. Lacking the ability to read basic fundamentals there gives me full confidence to ignore his liquidity claims here.

But to be fair he has admitted he doesn’t have a clue how to read the balance sheet.. maybe he is learning something.

Net debt of $151m means total debts are $151m more than current cash position. Hence HOC have total debts of $320m.

Thank you for posting the October Sprott report! That was an eye opening read with much significance placed on the third quarter 2Moz Syama North resource update and revisions to future production forecasts.

Focusing on this the updated Mineral Resource estimates for Syama North increased 40% with the PFS now underway to determine development options at the Sulphide processing circuit.

The basic premise being confidence is now so high in the Sulphide processing circuit and the liklihood of converting significant Resources into Ore Reserves that management are changing tack from the high capital cost ($100m) development of Tabakoroni underground and instead will expand the Sulphide circuit with lost capital cost expansion options.

"The Syama North open pit option has been prioritised due to it being lower capital, its proximity to the processing facilities and strong metallurgical similarities to the existing Syama Underground mill feed" - Q322 update

Note the high praise in the Sprott report
"We think the recent discovery of blow-outs at depth, and resultant 3Q22 2Moz resource at Syama North, was either missed by the market, or the value won’t be reflected until the company’s production and debt profile are back on course. Syama North is >2x larger than the prior discovery Tabakaroni, which is smaller, requires underground development, and has more complex metallurgy.

The real prize here is the 1.7Moz @ 3.2g/t sulphide resource. Firstly, we think this
(i) likely extends the mine life toward or over 20 years at 140-150koz pa; ideally with
(ii) the ability to cherry-pick some high-grade pods in early years to improve cash flow. The real prize though is
(iii) the ability to immediately use a ‘spare’ (requires minor modifications) ~1Mt pa capacity in the sulphide plant to grow sulphide production 210koz, or (iv) in the long-term grow to ~240koz by converting some of the oxide capacity to float, or above that with a second expansion."

The company plans to release definitive 2023 production and cost guidance to the market in January and has suggested it expects Sulphide gold production for 2023 and 2024 to average around 160,000 to 165,000 ounces per annum.

PGM majors having a strong November. Time to buy and hold from here. Target 40p+

ThePublican777 - "It’s clear your short and that’s all good , totally understand your position but the current Meerut cap has fallen to reflect this position and I am invested for the pipeline of projects and growth. Do you think these things build themselves with no funding ? Do you want HOC to stand still."

Wrong again. I am just here to highlight the truth and point out your mistaken beliefs / inability to read balance sheets. To clarify you were wrong about liquidity too and you misread the balance sheet. They have $151m net debt today with a cash balance of $169m which means they have total debts of approx $320m. You talk about liquidity without ever mentioning how much they have available.

The assets being more than worth the market cap meant nothing for POG the first time it went for an equity destroying rights issue back in 2013.

"I like Shanta but the liquidity is poor and they are in debt and have to finish building a mine , it’s low cost but risks a plenty. What if I they have teething probs ?"

Also ThePublican777..

"Been following Hoc for the past year ... it’s putting its liquidity to use in this in exciting time ... As far as I can see operations make money and they are spending money to develop projects ... Either I can’t read a balance sheet or I am incredibly stupid , so educate me roughly 150 million cash on balance for liquidity here to March the 150 million debt."

Accuses me of being short for following him over there and pointing out the bleeding obvious that HOC are in fact heavily loss making and haemorrhaging cash this year. Last quarter alone net debt increased more than 40% to $151m, bringing total debt to approx $320m. In comparison they had a net cash position of $86m at the start of the year. The guy seemingly doesn't understand or care to explore the toxic political situation there either. He also talks a lot about liquidity but doesn't seem to know what exactly is available and how net debt is calculated.

Firing in the dark springs to mind.

A rather daft admission that you either misread or cannot read the balance sheet.

As Sotolo confirmed, they are sitting on Net Debt of $151m which means their cash position of $169m is net $151m less than their total debt as of the end of September. By contrast they had a Net CASH position of $86 million at the start of the year.

In other words they have blown through $237m in the past nine months. And that's despite sizeable ongoing operational cashflows and receiving higher prices for gold and silver earlier in the year.

The market is clearly not impressed nor does it share your one size fits all risk analysis for this particular gold producer. The highly toxic political and social environment in Peru has been baking into the share price for a while now yet the situation is about as bad as it has been in years which is the reason why HOC are aggressively spending elsewhere.

Stunning performance today on news of China policy shift. Sentiment swing set to amplify gains as demand for metals ramps up in 2023 and beyond