Member Info for the_shareminator

MTL, SRB, SHG, RSG and CEY are operating in friendlier jurisdictions than Peru and better positioned to reduce excess debt (if they are holding any!). The risks associated with Hochschild have played out again and again over the past decade and look to be as prevalent as ever.

"Dekker is correct" repeated three times. You seem awfully defensive of this 'Dekker' today Tony and not at all concerned with the false information you are helping to propagate. You know full well THE REASON net profit is a paltry $4.67m (2021) and $6m (2022) is because cash-flow from New Luika was redirected back into Singida. I don't have the figures to hand but it well north of $50m invested into capital development of our second mine. This is company accounting 101, keeps tax obligations low whilst growth can be prioritised.

Received a notification from my stockbroker account issued this afternoon. Ignore the noise from new posters here, hold onto your shares and vote with a clear head (2 producing mines, 100koz p/a, gold price all time high, company debt free, low AISC, $70+ million annual earnings forecast in 2024 with likely cash build of $8-10m per quarter)..

'Shanta Gold Limited has announced details of an offer by Saturn Resources Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ETC Holdings (Mauritius) Limited. The offer is to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Shanta Gold Limited via a scheme of arrangement.

Under the terms of the offer, you will receive GBP0.135 for each Shanta Gold Limited share held.

The scheme is subject to shareholder approval at a general meeting and a court meeting, both to be held in due course.

There will also be a court hearing in order to sanction the scheme.

If approved, the proceeds will be credited to your account following completion of the scheme, which is expected to be in the first half of 2024.'

Mr Tibbles you're making yourself look a right plonker!

No operating costs?

From the latest Interim results released September:

Adjusted Cash Operating Costs of US$1,009 /oz (1% below budget) and AISC of US$1,293 /oz (4% below budget) were achieved at New Luika during the Period.

Adjusted Cash Operating Costs of US$655 /oz (36% below budget) and AISC of US$825 /oz (32% below budget) were achieved at Singida during the Period.

As for production stripping you can find the amounts under 'Deferred stripping asset' in the Annual results. That waste stripping is reported differently is neither here nor there.

Are you going to stand by the rest of the bunkum you wrote?

Lol MrTibbles did you write that out yourself? Come on, be honest, that was a hopeless attempt. In terms of FACTUAL analysis it left much to be desired.

Surprised you didn't receive more of a slap down from our regular posters here who are well versed with Shanta's past performance. It's very odd certain holders would even validate such claims given they are simply not true.

For avoidance of doubt Interim results for 2023 are available here:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SHG/interim-results-30-june-2023-fey4rhruntc4tbr.html

Shanta has been paying a dividend for at least 2 years that I recall.

More importantly New Luika cash-flow has been directed into Singida mine development (exploration, capital costs etc) for years. This information has been widely available for in various presentations and reports.

" but historically the company could not generate cash from the New Luika Mine when it had a grade above 5 g/t Au" - in essence what you (or your helpful analyst) failed to grasp was that free cash-flow ended up funding Singida into production, a mine that brings annual production to more than 100,000 ounces each year going forward. If New Luika wasn't profitable during that period how on earth did they manage to fund Singida to today!?

Hounddog - I read that part too, direct buying wouldn't prevent associates who later transfer or organise a related party transaction. When it comes to AIM stocks there is nothing the FCA will do or perhaps that should be nothing they can do to prevent this form of market abuse. It happens in it various forms and given the set up with this deal and our dodgy BoD all clapping in favour of a 13.5p sell off I wouldn't put it past them.

There is also the possibility they 'switch' to an offer from scheme (mentioned in the agreement doc) which would, as Tony points out, mean they can buy on the open market during the offer period. I would hypothesise this may also include purchasing stock from certain affiliates who were mopping up stock during this initial offer period. All conjecture of course and I hope my imagination is proven wrong in time.

Link to ETC Holdings page dedicated to the 'Offer for Shanta Gold' which contains downloadable PDFs of all documents thus far released.

https://etcholdings.net/offer-for-shanta-gold/

The Co-operation Agreement (20th December) has an interesting section pg.11 - (6) Election to make an offer, which details how a bidding war might play out, I think this was mentioned earlier in the week but just getting around to reading now.

Just to clarify this offer is coming via court-sanctioned 'scheme of arrangement' which under Guernsey companies law, and is subject to the "satisfaction of 75% approval by the requisite majority of shareholders".

No doubt ETC (via their newly formed subsidiary Saturn Resources (Bidco) are keen on acquiring Shanta. They even have a dedicated page up with all the relevant documents thus far but I doubt Patel thinks the majority of shareholders will go along with this. He is acting in his own best interest knowing whatever happens he stands to benefit.

ETC takeover goes ahead then no doubt he stands to gain recognition for the deal within ETC, influence, financial recompense for his efforts as well as the 13.5p on his holding.

ETC takeover fails then Patel remains in effective control of Shanta with a collective increased holding and likely reap greater financial rewards as Shanta's market value along with any other publicly traded gold producer rerates next year (can't ignore quarterly cash gains on the balance sheet of $8-12m!)

MrBond007 - The point isn't so much that they have the power to vote down any offers well in excess of 13.5p although from what I understand any offer requires 75% or more in support so they could in theory drag their feet.

The point is that by declaring their interest with this little drama that has ensued (pushing out holders like yourself) and assuming they increase their collective holding to 25% it places Patel & co in the driving seat for any *potential* offers that come along, either in the near future or a couple of years from now.

In simple terms they are conducting a shakedown to mop up cheap shares but the intention to buy Shanta now at 13.5p is surely a ruse destined to fail.

And assuming an offer well in excess of 13.5p comes along (perhaps it is being lined up as we speak) it will be Patel and Co with their 25%+ holding who will be negotiating the price through whatever conduits (legal or otherwise) at their disposal as any offer will require their support to succeed.

Bankrupty and BP - intersting analysis! So a low ball 13.5p offer effectively guarantees Patel controlling interest!

- Share price value to remain depressed during course of offer period.

- Declared 19% interest wards off other interested buyers but equally shows ii they don't have majority support yet

- Commence shakeout of disillusioned shareholders and those fearful of missing gains elsewhere.

These events combined generate an increase in volumes, sellers taking 12.9p the highest price in a long while and at the same time providing cover and opportunity for Saturn to build their stake into a controlling interest. As BP mentioned, another 6% of market share will mean Patel can squash any other future offers including relatively low ball offers. Is this bid then just a ruse to declare a controlling interest with the knowledge that other parties are interested in buying Shanta for a fairer value of 16p+ for example?

Credibility shot to pieces. Cash flushed down the drain and nothing to show for it. The signs were there in the HY results although barely a mention of a 'going concern'...

Net debt went up on the previous quarter despite production in line with expectations. Reading between the lines many of the reasons remain and according to the last update will persist for a couple of quarters. The major issues being (planned) lower grades as well as increased capital expenditure. This is the cause of the recent sell off whilst the price of gold has surged higher.

Operational issues may continue to hamper gains in the short term, it's the same reason I sold down GDP and HUM.

If you can sit on hands and wait this will no doubt rise with the tide; gold is certain to push through $2,100 in the new year. But I'm not convinced THX will make a good return in the next quarter when compared to the likes of MTL, SRB or even SHG which is currently depressed owing to a hostile offer. Net debt is likely to have increased or is set to depending on when gold shipment settlements fall in relation to quarterly updates. The right time to buy will probably be when management hint grades are returned to normal and that may take another quarter. In the meantime the company's financial situation will stagnate which the market is unlikely to treat kindly given we are in an inflationary environment with gold selling for record prices.

"My theory is that as shareholders sell, they are replaced by others who are picking up with an aim to hold for 13.5p.. Does this mean that the share price should get tigher to the t/o price as time goes on as the sellers should gradually dry up?"

Based on my prior experiences of takeovers / buyouts in this sector with Randgold, Highland Gold, Trans-Siberian Gold, Vedanta and others whose names escape me the inevitable closing of the gap is happening and will continue to keep the price on a gradual trajectory towards 13.5p. But for this hostile bid the market should have responded more positively as it has done elsewhere (MTL, ADT1, GPM, SRB, HOC, RSG) with gold futures creeping higher and this morning to just below 2,100/oz Shanta's two mines are throwing off more cash than ever.

Thank you for going to this effort Kaduval. I don't frequent the LSE boards as much as I used to but still holding 160,000 shares and intend to vote down this hostile bid at the first opportunity.

It will be surprising if major shareholders vote in favour of this deal given the encouraging gold price environment we are in and expected to remain as rates begin to drop early next year, but there is always a feeling of uncertainty whenever a shady deal such as this is pushed by the board onto it's shareholders.

Disappointing not one board member thought this will reflect badly on themselves and the company moving forward (assuming the deal collapses). Maybe that is part of the plan, encouraging disgruntled shareholders to sell. Well, my intention is to hold and buy any dips should the opportunity come along.

We need to first vote down this deal and then with the support of major shareholders who are not connected with Saturn / Patel consider replacing certain members of the Board.

Last I checked we are on course for a 12% dividend in 2024 although this may have changed with the geopolitical upheaval in the ME and with the investment / farm-in news. Things move very quickly though, just this past week the oil price has rallied nearly 8% on the deteriorating situation in the Red Sea, somewhat zealous headlines pushed by Middle Eastern media outlets to spur on the price of oil (no doubt there are vested interests) and welcome relief for the oil producers who were just a month earlier contemplating sub-$70/bbl prices.

Pedro61 - "6 months wait for 13.5p....or invest in a rising market.....?....and what happens if the offer gets turned down?.....Even lower price again?"

Why would the share price be lower in 6 months time if we are in to quote your phrase "a rising market"?

If shareholders vote down this derisory offer it will have been because they believe the market valuation should be over and above 13.5p. Support for this market valuation will be underpinned as the amount of cash on the balance sheet balloons $10-15m each quarter! Nice try though..

Misleading headline from Alliance News, the suggestion being Shanta has already agreed to the takeover. It's clear in the article the takeover HAS NOT been accepted yet, it has only been rubber stamped by a sell-out board but the headline should make this clear!

There will be no takeover if shareholders with a combined total of 25% or more vote AGAINST. Or in other words it needs 75% to succeed and right now they have 19.2% only!

Here is the offending piece copied below.

Shanta Gold accepts GBP140 million takeover offer from ETC Holdings

(Alliance News) - Shanta Gold Ltd on Wednesday said its board has agreed to an all-cash takeover offer from industrial conglomerate ETG that values East Africa-focused gold producer at just above GBP140 million.

Saturn Resources Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ETC Holdings (Mauritius) Ltd, offered 13.5 pence per Shanta share in cash, valuing all its equity at GBP142.0 million. Shanta shareholders also will receive an interim dividend of up to 0.15p to be declared by the Shanta board and paid prior to the takeover.

Shanta shares were up 2.4% at 12.95p on Wednesday afternoon in London. The stock is up 41% over the past year.

ETC Holdings is an investing company that is the controlling shareholder of ETC Group. The industrial conglomerate, which trades as ETG, operates in agricultural commodities, metal and energy. It also encompasses agricultural inputs and logistics, as well as other businesses.

ETG is controlled by Ketan Patel, Birju Patel and Mahesh Patel, with Ketan Patel already a member of the Shanta board.

The offer for Shanta has been accepted by its first and second largest shareholder, with 8.7% and 8.6% voting rights each, as well as by Shanta directors representing another 1.9%. It has 19.2% acceptances for the offer in total so far.

"As a shareholder in Shanta, we remain supportive of management and their strategy," Ketan Patel said. "However, we believe that Shanta's share price may inhibit Shanta's ability to deliver on its strategy and potential to maximise future shareholder returns."

Patel added: "As part of ETC Holdings, Shanta will benefit from the experience and connections of ETC Holdings and ETG in East Africa and as a result, have additional support during the currently heightened levels of macro-instability."

By Tom Waite, Alliance News editor

* and the financial gains Shanta are generating every quarter!

"Anyone fancy organising a campaign?"

With 200+ replies and counting the campaign is already beginning to take shape. The vast majority of ordinary private investors commenting recognise the offer is below fair value and are prepared to vote against. I'm sure more information on Bidco will come to light but my gut feeling is this is opportunistic and will fail given how narrow the premium was at the open today and the financial gains being made every quarter!

My intention is to hold and vote down this initial offer. GLA

Major shift in Federal Reserve sentiment this week

- Deeper rate cuts next year (at least three)

- US inflation is expected to cool faster than initially anticipated

- One final hike forecast for this year has been removed

- The revised benchmark next year has been revised down from 5.1% to 4.6%

- The forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 3.9% to 3.6%

https://www.investing.com/news/economy/fed-keeps-rates-steady-but-sees-more-rate-cuts-for-2024-3255944