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HarChris I share your sentiment, the buzz last night of $2100+ fizzled away as the day has gone on. We just need to keep in mind if the price of gold remains above $2,000/oz Shanta will be generating headline worthy profits from the highest margins we have to date.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

I think markets have fully turned now and are finally waking up to the reality of high commodity inflation, particularly precious metals whose supply and demand are neither controlled (unlike oil - OPEC) nor have they kept pace with inflation owing to a persistently strong dollar / weaker basket of alternate major currencies. The USD is weakening now and funds have been pulling out of US longs since early November, the culmination of factors along with rising tensions in the Middle East (US military vessels attacked yesterday). All this should continue to support buyer demand for gold, silver and platinum.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-gold-price-surges-to-the-all-time-high-above-2-130-on-weaker-us-fed-rate-cut-bet-202312032331

Top riser among mid-tier goldies today, beaten only by Hummingbird (which is highly volatile).

In case anyone missed it or for future reference, the USD has weakened to it's lowest point since August, sending gold up to 7 month highs of $2,042/oz. Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by spring 2024 has sparked an exodus of hedge funds out of long dollar positions according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Data from the CFTC released today shows these funds slashed their exposure from $10 billion in the first week of November to just $4.5 billion in the week ending Nov. 14.

Now precious metal prices are enjoying a long overdue release the knock-on effect to producers should swiftly follow as we are seeing today. Most PGM stocks are still bubbling away way below 2021-2022 levels despite the recent gains and continuing bullish forecasts.

Holding long and strong, no advice intended.

* $15.3m cash on hand at end of Q3 which is probably closer to $17m now.

Can't believe Serabi is falling on a day gold is trading up near 6 month highs!

£15.3m cash on hand at end of Q3 which is probably closer to £17m now. Throwing off substantial amounts of free cash relative to it's current £23m market value ($29m). Well positioned for a maiden dividend when final results are released towards end of Spring next year IMO

"ROBUST GOLD PRODUCTION EXPECTED FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2023"

Gold production expected to be between 94,000oz to 98,000oz (H1 FY2023: 92,307oz) with an increased lower estimate for full year 2024 production guidance of between 180,000oz to 190,000oz (FY2023: 175,209oz).

Very welcome update with the operational update due January 2024.

Newly released 3 year production and cost forecast

- Total group gold production from exceeding 1 million ounces from 2024 through 2026

- AISC reducing by over $200/oz from current $1450/oz level

“The release of our three-year forecast during the quarter shows the company's organic growth path to increase ounces and improve margins across the group. The Syama North Phase I Expansion project should enable stable gold production in excess of 260 000 oz/y with the flexibility of having two reliable sources of ore. At Mako, we have two extremely strong years ahead of us with production around 135 000 oz/y at very healthy margins,” Holohan said.

Resolute now net cash positive for the first time in what must be a decade!?

At the latest quarterly update to September 2023 there was a $19 million swing to the green in liquid assets, as net debt of $17.2m swung to $2m net cash on the balance sheet! This figure included Cash and crucially Bullion of $78.0 million which should have increased in value since quarter end as the gold price continued to rise.

Internal Q4 cash generation forecasts must look particular strong even despite the reduction in guidance with capex forecasts reduced. Net cash on the balance sheet may well be $20m+ by the end of 2023.

Share price has been creeping up this past month, almost 20% up in fact to levels not seen since May. Compared to peers PAF is outperforming all the major and mid-tier London listed gold producers in the past month and not far behind the smaller risers like AAZ and HUM (which have been much more volatile this past year)

Taseko Mines Announces that the UIC Permit for Florence Copper is now Effective

Oct. 31, 2023 - Taseko Mines Limited is pleased to announce that the US Environmental Protection Agency ("EPA") has confirmed that no appeals have been received and Florence Copper's final Underground Injection Control ("UIC") permit is now effective.

Stuart McDonald, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "Successful completion of the UIC permitting process is a result of Taseko's long-term development approach, and the quality and environmental integrity of the project. Taseko is now in a unique position, with one of the very few fully permitted mining projects in North America. With the final permit in hand, we have a clear line of vision to commercial production and are that much closer to realizing the full value of Florence Copper."

Florence Copper, located in Arizona, USA, is the next copper mine development for Taseko. The Company anticipates that Florence Copper will be one of the greenest sources of copper for U.S. domestic consumption, with carbon emissions, water and energy consumption all dramatically lower than a conventional copper mine. Florence Copper is projected to be a low-cost copper producer, expected to manufacture 85 million pounds per year of LME Grade A copper cathode in the United States.

Correction to Gold Sales at Realised Gold Price: Revenue (implied)

* Q2 2023: 29,406oz (NGLM 20,704oz + Singida 8,702oz) at $1954/oz: $57.46m

Data taken from the Q4 2022 results released January and each of the quarterly presentations for 2023 to date. Values are normally derived on the final day of the quarter although some figures like share price / market value are derived on the day the presentation is released.

Share Price (Market Capitalisation)

Q4 2022: 12.1p per share ($153 million)

Q1 2023: 13p per share ($170 million)

Q2 2023: 10.6p per share ($137 million)

Q3 2023: 10.5p per share ($135 million)

Debt vs Liquid Assets

Q4 2022: $24.1m gross debt vs $10.5m cash & gold dore: ($13.6m) net debt

Q1 2023: $29.6m gross debt vs $10m cash & gold dore: ($19.6m) net debt

Q2 2023: $29.6m gross debt vs $21m cash & gold dore: ($8.6m) net debt

Q3 2023: $21.4m gross debt vs $16.5m cash & gold dore: ($4.9m) net debt

Group Production

Q4 2022: 16,742oz

Q1 2023: 15,317oz

Q2 2023: 29,454oz (NGLM 19,338oz + Singida 10,116oz)

Q3 2023: 27,935oz (NGLM 18,271oz + Singida 9,664oz)

Gold Sales at Realised Gold Price: Revenue (implied)

Q4 2022: 16,621oz at $1,731/oz: $28.77m

Q1 2023: 15,995oz at $1,918/oz: $30.68m

Q2 2023: 29,406oz (NGLM 20,704oz + Singida 8,702oz) at $1954/oz: $40.52m

Q3 2023: 25,016oz (NGLM 17,447oz + Singdiga 7,569) at $1930/oz: $48.28m

In terms of known near term value drivers it sounds to me like the Board are adopting a policy of improving production efficiencies, a low capital and immediately beneficial route to adding value through improved rates of recovery, lower operating costs and maintaining good margins. According to the latest update Singida is currently operating at a rate above internal forecasts and assuming it can be maintained this quarter there is a very high chance of Shanta beating the upper end production guidance of 98,000oz - I believe they need to produce around 25,800oz to hit that level. From what it appears both at NGLM and Singida there has been a degree of stockpiling, particularly in the last quarter which will boost the next quarterly revenue numbers I'd imagine once they have been sold.

Should be looking at around 100koz FY23 production and net cash position of $6-8m, a huge improvement over the course of the year and with gold prices trading 10-15% higher than a year ago and 2024 set to be another record year in terms of production, revenue and cash-flow I'd be surprised if we don't see a gradual rerating through the quarter and beyond.

I'd wager every single sensible investors here is holding multiple stocks in their portfolios, some related via sectors, commodity prices, locality or geopolitical events. I don't see any problem with investors who want to discuss these things posting cross boards. As long as it's kept to it's own thread, it's easy enough to navigate around and if you're not interested, simply scroll past. On topic here all of my O&G stocks are performing poorly this month: SQZ, BP, ENOG, DEC, HBR, UJO, HTG and I3E... some more so than others. I wouldn't be selling I3E today based on current price vs fundamentals though

With gold futures up to $1997/oz and Shanta due to release what is anticipated to be another stellar quarterly update next week it's surprising we haven't broken 2023 highs already!

Interesting research note by Andy Murphy at Edison Group - PE trading below long term average.

Epwin Group — Strategic progress in tough markets

Epwin’s H123 results confirmed a solid performance that was characterised by weaker volumes offset by cost control, higher prices and some contribution from M&A in tough markets. Longer term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Management action contributed to overall margin expansion, a feature that we expect to continue in FY23 and FY24 as material cost pressures become less of a headwind. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. We have maintained our forecasts but highlight the low valuation and attractive 6.7% yield.

Valuation: P/E of 7.5x vs long-term average of 10.7x

Our FY23 forecasts remain unchanged, which implies that Epwin trades on a P/E ratio of just 7.5x to December 2023, a material discount to its long-term average of 10.7x. The company remains acquisitive and has an estimated net debt to EBITDA ratio of c 0.6x at December 2023, with risks to the downside. Furthermore, even without M&A, Epwin is cash generative; we expect debt to decline over FY23–24 and note that the shares offer an attractive 6.7% yield from a twice covered dividend.

Plenty of positive headliners in the latest quarterly update!

- Q3 gold production: 8,738 ounces (+3% improvement on Q2 2023) at a gold price averaging approximately $1940/oz across the quarter with the highest quarterly mined tonnage and highest quarterly grades at Palito bodes well for Q4 needing just a little over 8,200 ounces to meet lower end guidance for the year.

- NI 43-101 Resource Estimate for Palito to June 2023 realised a 50% increase in Measured and Indicated category, highest confidence bracket and a 93% increase in average reported grades of the M&I resources at Palito Complex from 5.23 g/t to 10.08 g/t!!! Higher grades = lower operating costs and higher projected IRR. Even the Inferred resource grades increased 45% to 7.01 g/t. Improving grades at Palito are top tier!

- Cash held on 30 September was US$15.3 million (US$14.7 million net of cash held under the Vale Exploration Alliance) compared to US$13.3 million as at 30 June 2023.Net cash attributable to the Group has increased by US$2.4 million in the third quarter.

Gold just skimmed off $1925

Agree with the assessment picax, share buybacks are not ordinarily designed to be sustainable nor a long term solution to weak market participation. They are a short term fix for weak price action certainly and could be an option in the years ahead but right now Shanta are paying a paltry sum of around 2% per annum to shareholders, some of whom will have invested far higher (16p placing was only a couple of years ago) and have yet to see any rewards for their investment.

New Luika and Singida are throwing off enough cash at $1850/oz to easily support a dividend of 0.5p/share ($6m) with net profits projected to be around $25-30m in the following year. West Kenya aught not to be rushed through to production at the expense of a reasonable rate of return for shareholders.

A dividend yield that keeps up with annual inflation would be preferable and it should be affordable using today's metrics of sub 10p/share and a roughly 6%.

I think most long term investors have been very understanding of Shanta's decisions to delay hiking the dividend as the Singida mine build was priority number one. NL cash-flow was unloaded into Singida capital development. Now both NL and Singida cash-flows are being directed to a reduced sustaining capital expenditure programme and slightly increased exploratory spend there should be ample cash build up over the coming quarters.

Probably little financial incentive to repay commercial loans early and there will be an incentive to having cash sit on the balance, not least if interest rates remain higher for longer. At some point the interest gains alone will warrant a modest rise in the dividend but I'm hoping the board act prior to this!

TASEKO MINES ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER COPPER PRODUCTION OF 35 MILLION POUNDS FROM THE GIBRALTAR MINE

Taseko Mines Limited (LSE: TKO) is pleased to announce that the Gibraltar Mine produced 35 million pounds of copper and 369 thousand pounds of molybdenum in the third quarter (100% basis).

Stuart McDonald, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "The 25% quarter-over-quarter increase in copper production was a result of higher grades, improved recoveries and increased mill throughput. Mining in the Gibraltar pit is progressing on plan and the lower benches are providing the ore quality we expected. Molybdenum grades have also increased as mining has progressed deeper into the Gibraltar pit, resulting in a 60% increase in quarterly molybdenum production."

A port workers strike in early July caused shipping delays and a build-up of Gibraltar copper concentrate inventory. As a result, third quarter sales volumes lagged production by three million pounds, and the excess inventory is expected to be shipped and sold in the fourth quarter.

Taseko is providing this third quarter production update in advance of an analyst and investor tour taking place at the Gibraltar Mine later today. Presentation slides to be used during the tour will be available at https://tasekomines.com/investors/presentations.