Member Info for the_shareminator

Canaccord Genuity's updated research into precious metals companies up to the 30.01.24 posted on Hot Copper shows just how undervalued Resolute Mining is at today's share price.

EV / EBITDA 2024 estimate: 1.23 dropping to just 0.76 in 2025

Price / NAV: 0.38

FCF Yield 2025 estimate: 29.9%

Analyst Target price: AUD $1.15 (60p equivalent)

Bangrak - I can only imagine the people who disagreed with you were shareholders and fearful therefore of the worst case scenarios playing out. It's obviously not great for those still holding and sitting on losses.

Those of us who have held Sylvania in the past and are looking for an opportune time to reinvest aren't too interested in talking down the stock either, as it so often rubs people up the wrong way.

The positives in 2023

- Turned cash positive, reducing net debt by $45.6 million in 2023 with year end net cash of $14 million

- Declared a maiden Ore Reserve at Syama North

- Undertook first phase of Syama expansion funded out of free cash flow

- Mako outperformed exceeding its 117 koz full-year guidance

- Exploration success in both Senegal and Guinea

- Q4 improvement in underground grades

The not so positives

- Q2 and Q3 2023 production challenges owing to lower grades

- Mako gold production expected to be weighted towards H2 (approximately 55%) in 2024

Catalysts

- Phase I Expansion / Syama Sulphide Conversion Project (SSCP) on track for commissioning in H1 2025

- Exploratory work at Mako to extend mine life beyond 2026

- Q4 2023 gold poured of 80,307 oz (Q3 2023: 74,056 oz)

- Q4 2023 AISC of $1,480/oz (Q3 2023: $1,459/oz)

- Q4 2023 revenue of approximately $155 million generated from gold sales of 79,480oz at an average realised gold price of $1,954/oz (Q3 2023: 76,524oz at an average realised gold price of $1,917/oz)

Q4 2023 operating cash flows of $30.8 million (Q3 2022: $22.8 million for Q3)

- Full-year group gold production: 330,994 oz (FY 2022: 353,069oz)

- Group 2023 All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1,470/oz (2022: $1,498/oz)

- Unaudited 2023 revenue of approximately $630 million ($651 million in 2022)

- Full-year 2023 operating cash flows of $142.0 million (FY 2022: $90.9 million)

- Full year 2023 EBITDA of approximately $165 million (FY 2022: $148 million)

- Net Cash of $14.0 million (Q3 2022: $2.2 million) including Cash and Bullion of $85.2 million

- 2023 Capital Expenditure of $70.4 million (2022: $66.2 million)

2024 Guidance

· 2024 Group production guidance of 345,000 - 365,000 oz at an AISC of $1,300 -1,400/oz

· 2024 Group capital expenditure guidance of $115-145 million split between Syama, Mako and Exploration of $90-110 million, $15-20 million and $10-15 million respectively

Gavster - That may be different if the board declared an intention to buy back stock. Sylvannia Platinum did it with free cash while continuing to pay a 12% dividend at the time. When conducted in tandem with regular dividend payments they don't reward sellers either.

To be clear nobody is against the dividend nor for scrapping it in favour of a buyback. However there comes a point when the share price is on it's knees and the yield is in double digits when a company acts to preserve shareholder value. That is exactly what a buyback is for.

Whether cheap 17-18p stock held in reserves is then raided for bonus payments down the line, offered to an institution looking to take a sizeable stake of the company at an attractive price or simply cancelled is secondary. Buying back stock is preferable to pursuing unsupported dividend hikes / special dividends etc, the like of which only encourages traders and not long term investors! AAZ pursued that hopeless policy and look at the share price now, on it's knees.

kenj - Well it does happen that way on occasion, I've been invested in a stock when it was announced following a buy back some time in the preceding months. That it happens less frequently than cancellation is true.

In terms of reducing the share capital (by buyback and cancellation) the short term effect is the same. Availability of 'cheap' shares reduces, the market awareness drives the price creating liquidity in a higher range, assuming all other factors being equal.

UK shareholders would benefit more from a share buy-back than an increased dividend payment as already mentioned, we are being taxed for the latter. With that said, either or are preferable to the company fast tracking debt repayments at this point given ring-fencing of Mintails.

Pan African buying back stock adds capital to it's reserves which can be released to an institutional investor at a later time for a premium and in the short term increases confidence in the stock at these low levels while maintaining liquidity at a higher price level.

CAML already yield more than 10%. I'd much rather they entertained a buy-back with the share price currently on it's knees. Improves earnings, shows the market the board is serious about generating shareholder returns and there is always the option of selling these shares at a premium to a prospective fund when market conditions / trading improve.

Worried we will wake up one morning to a low ball takeover. UK resource and commodity sector looks very attractive right now.

More details about TCM Wealth available

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08603093/filing-history

TCM Wealth have declared their 12 million holding today.

This looks to be a spin off subsidiary under Trium Holdings Ltd, it has a barebones website that has only been live for 6 months, company name change 3 months prior to that.

There is a fair amount of information on their activities under the 'Consolidated accounts of parent company for subsidiary company period ending 31/12/22' dated 09 Oct 2023 which would indicate they are not in the game of ploughing money into a 6 month long takeover process for a 5% return.

Taseko Announces a 26% Increase in Annual Copper Production from its Gibraltar Mine

VANCOUVER, BC, Jan. 10, 2024 -- Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO) (NYSE American: TGB) (LSE: TKO) ("Taseko" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that the Gibraltar mine produced 34 million pounds of copper and 369 thousand pounds of molybdenum in the fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year, Gibraltar produced 123 million pounds of copper, well above guidance and 26% higher than the previous year.

Copper production in the fourth quarter was supported by strong copper grades of 0.27% with ore from the lower benches of the Gibraltar pit. Mill throughput in the quarter averaged 83,000 tons per day and was impacted by additional downtime for maintenance and monitoring of the ball mill in concentrator #2.

Copper sales volumes in the fourth quarter were 36 million pounds, and year-end concentrate inventories remained above normal levels.

Stuart McDonald, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "The strong finish to 2023 is expected to continue in 2024 as the Gibraltar pit will remain the main source of ore for the first half of this year."

Scottkent - "does this mean my shares/money are stuck in limbo for many months? I just wonder if this is a way for the bidder/buyer to freeze the share price while the gold price increases?"

If you believe this scheme will be voted down whenever the vote is set to take place AND the share price will rerate in line with the gold price and operational performance during the period on the announcement shareholders have fought off this hostile takeover then it's simply a waiting game.

It would be similar to putting savings into a 1 year fixed-rate account only this won't take a year to resolve and the rerate following resumption of normal trading conditions will be significantly higher than 5-6% annual return from a savers account.

Liquidating their position at any old price is a sign of troubles unrelated to Petards. This kind of thing happens, creating an opportunity for new and existing shareholders to come in and take up stock at an attractive price.

First full week back so I'd suggest it's simply city boys and girls making portfolio adjustments.

Adw - "We might think it’s worth x, y or z but it’s the old adage that’s it’s real value is what someone is prepared to pay for it. If nobody else wants to bid higher we have our price. We may all thinks it too cheap but we’re hardly an impartial bunch are we!"

In ordinary day to day trading you are correct however in the context of a company buyout, the company's 'real value' is determined by what shareholders are prepared to accept!

Previously the Board (in their partisan wisdom) chose not to pursue offers with three interested parties previously. Had there been a more impartial board perhaps talks with have gone further but we can only speculate.

I agree a competing offer at a higher level sends the share price higher, that would suit shareholders but it would not suit our largest shareholder (by connected interests). It shouldn't be particularly concerning in the event of no counter offers though, as there may be a myriad of reasons why interested parties choose not to buy Shanta. If it was a concern then every listed company on the markets would and should be expected to receive regular take over offers until they are taken private. That would be pretty ludicrous.

With the Board having lined up behind Patel who has the backing of a billion dollar fund and is clearly working against the interests of Shanta shareholders here in order to pick up these assets cheap we can vote down the offer and see how the market valuation reacts.

As shareholders we don't HAVE to accept any hostile offer regardless of Board recommendations or offer price which will in every circumstance be below fair value as they attempt to take the company off the market at the lowest price.

Once the share price begins to pick up sentiment will shift. Those hedging for a sub 10p entry know they stand to make substantial gains in short order, it's simply a waiting game. I've not got much here at the moment but I'm positive about the outlook this year once the open offer is behind us. Operational performance meeting expectations will determine the extent of the rebound.

Tornadotony - "If we get no offer then the argument that it only worth the takeover offer becomes the only game in play."

Come on Tony, are you playing devil's advocate because nobody in their right mind believes that! The market will value Shanta based on it's fundamentals not what Patel and our sell-out Board of Directors say is 'fair value'.

The Board doesn't need to be removed. They will have to respond to shareholder discontent but their interests and ours will still be aligned once the offer is rejected. The only potential clash of interest going forward may be Patel's involvement given his declared intention to acquire the company's assets.

In the event of a no vote and no further offers Shanta reverts back to fair market value. The share price was 12.6p on the 19th December the day before the recommended cash offer and had been creeping higher over previous weeks as interest in the gold sector had begun to pick up.

Would be interested to hear why anyone thinks Shanta will dip below the 12.6p pre-offer share price in the event the offer is rejected.

Yet to receive mine either (ii) although mine is set to 'reinvest' so I won't have the chance to hold it in my hands, speaking metaphorically of course :)

Adw - we cannot assume institutions like Ruffer have made their decision to vote yes or no. They are buying now with a certain degree of surety in the event it succeeds but depending on the share price on the day of the vote they may well be able to sell at or near the offer price through the open market.

If you only consider their recent buying of 12.95p and assume Ruffer vote in favour of buyout that means they have guaranteed 4.5% with the dividend thrown. They have actually been holding for a while now and so stand to gain considerably more. Ruffer are open about making 8% annual returns over the years so their recent buying would indicate they may be content with the offer going through, regardless of Shanta's fundamentals and assuming there is a sizable gap between the ask and the offer price on the day of the vote.

However if we assume the share price is near or around the offer price in a few weeks from now which is likely given recent indicators and interest, there comes more incentive to vote down the offer, especially when other small cap gold producers are rising at a faster pace thanks to current gold price trends. There would be more incentive for all shareholders including those increasing their leverage at this time to retain holdings in a company whose outlook has never looked so rosy, given it has afterall been the target of takeover by at least four companies in the past 18 months, has the support of multiple institutional investors (some of whom continue to buy) and is expected to make record earnings (EPS) from our now two producing mines, setting new records in terms of output, earnings and cash generation.

ADW - As Equanimity has said there are a couple of scenarios that will push the share price above 13.5p. I can give a personal example of a not too dissimilar event that I witnessed when Petropavlovsk conducted it's rights issue to raise cash. The rights issue was for shareholders to purchase additional new shares at 5p, a substantial discount to the share price on the day before the announcement. The price cratered to around 4p at it's low but what then followed was a series of institutions scrambling for stock and this pushed the share price over and above the 5p rights issue price to around 12p at it's height such was the demand for shares with the option to subscribe for new shares. The market had effectively shown the rights offer price was too low and that demand for these rights significantly outstripped supply. With the offer deemed by almost all to be too low for Shanta and institutions scrambling for stock knowing this deal is likely to fail they may well be positioning themselves for a higher offer and should further offers fail to materialise the market can at least put a base value of 13.65 on shares assuming production continues at more than 25,000 ounces a quarter and the gold price remains strong.

Ruffer LLP have increased their holding by 2,343,333 shares taking them to 25,750,000 (2.44%)

For reference they initially declared 17,250,000 shares (1.64%) on the 20th December

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SHG/form-83-shanta-gold-limited-i50bti95i1508tp.html

1.64