Member Info for the_shareminator

Bismarck - indeed there were no large sells, the MMs simply dropped the price moments after the RNS landed and it continued falling throughout the day. Not many buyers despite the ask at 8p as the company left too much unspoken in regards to financial position. Assuming Coris are sympathetic and supportive of extending repayment dates it will ease concerns over Hummingbird's debt requirements.

Money on the side-lines isn't coming back until those concerns are addressed first and foremost regardless of what happens to our contractor

Would be interested to know the details of the mining dispute. Could turn out to be a non event if resolved later this week. Alternatively if Hummingbird go out to tender a new contractor (or ideally multiple to reduce future risk of this happening again) it will impact production over a number of weeks and possibly months.

It could be worth checking if your share holding increased / decreased since placing the initial first vote. I sold some of my shares in one account at the beginning of the week and noticed the vote allocation needed updating.

The Dividend policy is to pay out all income each year rather than setting some aside so assuming recent commodity price gains continue this will inevitably lead to a higher dividend than the 33.5p paid out last year.

At the end of January the main sector weighting was the 37.7% allocation to diversified miners, followed by copper 22.6% and gold 13.4%. Gold and copper have gone on runs recently, the latter still appears to be in the middle of a correction and the gains will only begin to carry over once producers have booked a full quarter of sales.

BRWM management has a knack for picking those with the strongest margins and in upturns like we are in now should reap decent rewards.

Note last year interest paid on loans was $28.9 million (2022: $15.3 million) due to rising interest rates however the overall debt on the balance sheet has increased too. Factoring in the continued rate rise through the period, the reduction in liquid cash and reliance on fully drawn-down loans I'd imagine interest this year will be considerably higher once more.

Regardless of whether margins improve this year the company is highly geared in a high rate environment with extensive capital costs outstanding. Not one I'd buy over other more attractive producers at this level

Financials

- Headline revenues of $525 million and adjusted EBITDA of $190 million for 2023.

- That's a 34% increase in annual revenue, thanks to a combination of improved copper production and Taseko's bold move to increase their interest in the Gibraltar Mine during the year from 75% to 87.5%.

- Net income for the year was $83 million ($0.29 per share)

- Operating cashflow was an impressive $63 million in Q4 alone!

Operations

- Copper production (Gibraltar) was 34 million pounds in Q4 and 123 million pounds in the FY 2023.

- Irrespective of company holdings in the project that's an impressive 26% increase on 2022, annual production came in over and above guidance.

- Cash costs were lower at just $1.91 per pound in Q4 and averaging $2.37 per pound for the year.

Florence Copper project

- The EPA's permitting process concluded in Q4 with the final Underground Injection Control permit finanlised.

- Florence project financing already secured (Taurus Mining Royalty Fund, Societe Generale, Mitsui and Bank of America).

- Construction of the commercial production facility underway with first copper production expected Q4 2025.

- Florence Copper Project has a NPV of $930 million (after-tax, 8% DR) with an IRR of 47% (after-tax) and expected payback period of 2.6 years based on annual production of 85 million pounds copper. Current mine life of 22 years.

Outlook 2024

- Gibraltar Mine to continue with Gibraltar pit ore as main source of mill feed for H1 2024, transitioning to the Connector pit later this year.

- Gibraltar guidance of 115 million pounds of copper production.

- SX/EW facility to come back online in 2026.

- Capital costs of only $10 million planned for Gibraltar in 2024.

Given the translation here last year of a high gold price = increased net asset value + increased company profits the 5% gain in the gold price this past week will at some point be reflected in the market value (30% off it's peak).

As ever, very much appreciate the updates rivaldo. Tend to take no notice of broker target prices although do track upgrades/downgrades and their forecasts really are useful when it comes to highlighting new events / unexpected changes which may otherwise go under the radar (at least my radar!)

Perhaps, given the revival of the commodity sector this week, the latest forecast is already out of date.

In fact the market value has already risen by c. £25m in the past 24 hours. Gains not limited here either, sector beginning to pick up

42trader it's only another 20% from here, Resolute is capped at approx £425m

While not ideal Serica can comfortably manage the extended WF tax with production costs less than $20/boe, the price of oil building over recent weeks and set to move higher as commodities benefit from a weaker dollar in the second half of the year. Not to mention almost £300 million in liquid assets!

Palladium up 8% today with commodities set to recover on USD weakness (lower inflation, rate cuts due) bodes well for anyone jumping in at these levels

Gold futures almost up to $2,150/oz! The margins are rising faster here than many other producers in percentage terms which coupled with the recent balance sheet transformation should propel the market value to at least the half billion range.

SLP's basket price is set to rise in the second half and looking at the reasons behind the recent commodity price movements could run faster than forecasts, which for speculators happy with the £80m cash in the bank, values the annual cashflow of circa $20m with ongoing dividend yield of 8% at just £60m.

On the point of buybacks at the current share price, this is arguably the most the best route to retaining value assuming the cash and liquid assets are maintained at around $100m and margins having bottomed now begin to improve. If you believe the price is heading to 40p then you will hold a different view, however I'm of the opinion precious metal producers are due a rebound.

The market is forward looking but it's worth pointing out CAML comfortably achieved their 2023 guidance and ended the year with a cash position marginally below where it sat a year after (post dividends of more than $20m).

Copper production guidance - 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes vs actual 13,816 tonnes

Zinc production guidance - 19,000 to 21,000 tonnes vs actual 20,338 tonnes

Lead production guidance - 27,000 to 29,000 tonnes vs actual 27,794 tonnes

Guidance for 2024 has been set at the same level as 2023 with gross margins having only reduced by 5-10% yet the share price is down almost 45% in the past 12 months! All debts cleared in the prior year, reduced financing costs therefore and now their sizeable cash pile is benefitting from higher interest rates. Even assuming a 25% cut in the total FY dividend from 20p to 15p CAML are still yielding 10% and with the USD set to weaken in the second half that should provide relief for base metal commodities.

After watching this sh*t-show debacle orchestrated by grubby Patel and supported by our Board of weasels it really is no surprise they have managed to find a 'get-out' and postpone the inevitable smackdown! If we had an INDEPENDANT board they would not be recommending this ridiculous offer.

Last minute cancellation of plans is a smack in the teeth to all those funds who had arranged to attend in person (no doubt some would have voted down the offer). I wonder if this waste of everyone's time and money at the last minute will strengthen the resolve of those who are planning to vote down the offer.

I'm assuming they have deferred the vote and added the paragraph concerning no additional third party interest to dissuade those on the fence from voting down the offer.

If the Board bothered to report on actual feedback from Shanta shareholders they wouldn't be continuing down this path to enrich the Patels at our expense!

Shame on all of them for lacking the backbone to stand up and do what is right.

When Shanta was ramping up people were selling at 9p. There will always be reasons for people to purchase or dispose of holdings regardless of the value proposition and catalysts. We don’t have long to wait now to find out if group production and cashflow forecasts can be achieved

Sylvania are expected to yield 6-7% assuming they continue with their previously announced dividend policy to pay the initial third at half year and basket prices hold up. PGM prices have already collapsed and with regional uncertainty surrounding the future of marginal mines in South Africa we can probably say with some degree of confidence the basket price won't drop another 50% from current levels.

Dividend Policy - effective 1 July 2022, the New Dividend Policy will be able to pay out a minimum of 40% of adjusted free cash flow for the financial year. Where annual dividends are declared, these will be paid in two tranches with an interim dividend equating to one third of the forecast full dividend and the final dividend equating to the remaining unpaid balance of the minimum of 40% of actual adjusted free cash flow. The payment of dividends remains at the discretion of the Board.

Hi kaduval, confirming I've already cast my my votes, cheers!

besides filtronic the other major defence stocks worth dabbling in include bae, qinetiq, bab****, chemring, avon protection, rolls royce, serco and possibly senior.