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Nice buying opportunity. I've taken £1.7k more

Nice points fellas. The Fed is expected to raise rates in June and despite this being known I would have though the USD will regain some strength. Future tightening remains less clear given political turmoil recently and lack of policies implemented to boost the economy. However the U.S. employment report due Friday is expected to show that conditions in the labor market remain solid and confirmation would cement expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in June. Latest polls showed the Tories' lead in the June 8 election had narrowed further, surely they won't lose but that will add to USD strength in the lead up (first week of June). Euro weakness will grow I think as the possibility of a Greek default looms and also the possibility of Italian elections this year.

Understandably quiet here while we wait so thought I would reflect on some of the posts over on the ADVFN board. All the scare-mongering (and I'm justified in using that term) looks like hot air now. We have slipped a bit since recent the recent 57-58p highs but firmly seated around this 45-50p level. There has been no placing rushed through which some had suggested was coming. Instead we have seen some sensible updates regarding new orders, trading results and the approach by AVG. This comment by thorne resonates with me and dated a couple months back shows some level headed thinking on the posters part, kudos to them in light of all the chatter concerning imminent dilution. "One of the factors behind the delay in funding negotiations is probably the desire of the Directors to sign up some or all of the £30m of orders which we have been informed could take place in the short term.A favourable outcome in this respect would boost confidence all round.Interestingly the fact that RBS are happy to extend their £2.4m facility to the end of March is a clear indication that they have no intention of taking precipitate action and moreover see no need to do so.All this goes to show what a few jittery shareholders can achieve against a background of a slowing order intake and unsatisfactory funding arrangements.Let us hope that the Board has learnt its lesson and that this otherwise impressive company can power into the sunset once again without too much equity dilution." The 28th April was the last we heard about the banking facilities. " it continues to have constructive discussions with its bank, Royal Bank of Scotland ("RBS"), regarding a suitable long term financing structure to support the longer term prospects of the business. The Group also continues to discuss have constructive discussions with RBS with respect to the repayment of £2.4 million of short term banking facilities and the annualised measurement of the financial covenants, both of which have been extended from 30 April to 31 May 2017." It's anyone's guess whether talks will be extended further, most likely they will be and we will receive an update next Wednesday. However the upshot is an update comes prior to this detailing new financing arrangements which reduces the risk element of this stock considerably. Given there are only 6 trading days left until the end of the period I would suggest it is more likely to come in June or beyond. We will see

EdGasket - well done getting in at that price! I was going to buy earlier this week with some free funds elsewhere but turns out I couldn't free them as easily as I thought lol. Still SHG has given me a nice 10% in two weeks or so and I've ploughed that in here today. FY results are out on 28th June and by then we will receive some guidance on the outlook for this year (being 3 months into the quarter at that point). This will likely be well received given the increasing number of contract wins, the ongoing discussions regarding takeover and the very real likelihood of a long term financing solution being agreed in the next month or two. I do believe we are valued far too low for the EBITDA and cash generating potential this year and in future years. The last year was obviously tricky because of increased capital spend and spreading ourselves too thin on so many projects that completed later in the year (H2) and early this financial year. But this should be behind us soon enough. I hope any bid forthcoming is rejected because long term this should deliver many multiples of the current stock price back. Yes, that would require building a liquid cash pile and reducing the debt somewhat but it should also translate to £10-15m profit per annum in the not too distant future. Expecting £6-8m this next year assuming no terrible surprises.

Ofcourse this guy deals out advice and forgets to mention his original buy in doh! Bought all the way down having sold SLP at 7p. So on the contrary it is you who still appears sour having missed out on a 100% rise to near 14p earlier and lovely trading conditions to boot. LMAO

Hello all, have been reading comments here for a long time and appreciate the level of maturity on this board, some truly well informed individuals here. I have taken an initial stake at 7.57 in anticipation of what is due to happen in Q217 and before those FY results - underground production at New Luika commences in Q2 2017 - maiden resource statement due for the Nkuluwisi prospect They had started processing underground development ore and by the end of last quarter had 15,171 tonnes grading 10.6 g/t mined. They reason the share price has drifted is simple enough in my eyes. The company stated they anticipate "Q2 2017 gold production to be its lowest quarter for 2017" and the market has forward sold in anticipation. Savvy investors will be buying now or post those results as the share price will climb in anticipation of the underground mining ramping up to increased production. I may have missed a couple of finer points there but I am more interested to hear from fellow holders how they foresee the coming months newsflow and operations panning out (assuming no nasty surprises). Specifically how will operations impact cash costs, total production, group costs etc. I'm also interested to hear views about the local currency swings and how this will likely play out in 2017. Thanks guys and gl

Operating profit up to £15.8m before tax and of this net operating cash generated from operating activities was £14.3m Net debt down a fraction to £8.2m Why? Even a quick scan of net assets reveals the value under management rose just £4.7m after paying down liabilities and about £1m is afforded to good will i.e. non-cash. Dividend payments (18.75p) ofcourse would have stripped cash down by about £8m and tax was £3.6m. I'll assume the entire gain in net assets minus the goodwill (£3.7m) was cash which takes us to £15.3m It should be noted the Board reviews the goodwill value for impairment at their discretion and I they believe that while "there are indicators of impairment, principally in relation to the PI division, they have concluded that goodwill is not impaired. Within the total is £8.5m of intangible assets (2015: £8.5m) and this relates largely to intangible assets identified on business combinations for items such as customer contracts, brands and IT related assets." 19p dividend paid this year was awfully generous and up on last year. Can they afford to match it again?

Looks like any sells being mopped up in a tight market orders to me. 20% premium is 66p perhaps the level at which an offer will come...

Should be above 7000 on todays update, but the market is acting bizarre today. $600m cash and the gold price is trading higher than the last quarter ($1220 quarter just gone)

Well said seer! Wholeheartedly agree with your views, the weaker pound benefits us enormously when we consider the effects of trade, tourism etc. We are much more competitive now. We have the interest of other nations due to our significant wealth so striking trade deals will just be a matter of time. We could even form unions or such to benefit our common-wealth nations. People will look back in 5 or 10 years time and wonder what all the fuss was about. Interesting point regarding Napoleon, love a bit of history. From what I understand the major factor in the downfall of his empire was the destruction of Napoleon's army in it's retreat from Russia. Britain did help throughout by supporting the uprising in Spain and their naval sorties but could not have done much to impact the military campaigns on the mainland. What one can say is Napoleon's read of battles prior to the event was second to none. Perhaps a parallel to be drawn like when Napoleon marched to Moscow but lost the war is how the EU went too far accepting countries that had no business joining the ranks of Germany, France, UK and has now lost the latter.

Yes agree with you, today's update increases the likelihood of an offer. More time to assess the value here. Interestingly the AVG share price has continued to strengthen making dilution in the event of a merger less of a worry for holders. We are all aware of how much value is tied into assets, experience, legacy and continuing business performance and with HAYT they will be acquiring all this for a knockdown price even if its at a decent premium. With cash to throw at operations and spare capacity in our new centre of excellence this can grow quickly. Little disappointed we have not seen further stake-building. It is happening over on AVG!

I've been looking through the holdings RNS details and it seems there are those with holdings both in HAYT and AVG. Dion Greville Steward holds 900,000 HAYT shares, he has been buying this month since first declaring and he also holds 305,400 AVG shares. Also HARGREAVE HALE LIMITED is acting on behalf of "Discretionary Clients", holding just 8,925 shares but apparently they have an interest greater than 1% in AVG. Everyone else who has declared an interest here has no respective interest in AVG, which begs the question is Mr Steward in some way connected or is he simply an opportunistic investor? Either way I expect that individual to be in favour of a merger and there are probably more connected individuals building positions even now. Quick breakdown of declared holders here 9,130,766 ___ (16.48%) - Directors of HAYT and relatives of ELB 9,000,000 ___ (16.25%) - HARWOOD CAPITAL LLP 3,680,000 ___ (6.6%) - Richard Edgar Sneller 3,609,538 ___ (6.51%) - Henderson 1,356,798 ___ (2.45%) - Unicorn Asset Management Limited 900,000 ___ (1.62%) - Dion Greville Stewart 738,000 ___ (1.33%) - STOCKINVEST LIMITED 668,248 ___ (1.21%) - Chris Hazell 650,000 ___ (1.17%) - NVM Private Equity LLP 641,360 ___ (1.16%) - Killik & Co LLP 600,000 ___ (1.08%) - Neil John Murphy 8,925 ___ (0.0161%) - HARGREAVE HALE LIMITED for "Discretionary Clients" Together the holdings declared comprise more than 55.8% of the shares in issue. Breakdown of the Directors and relatives Ewan Lloyd-Baker - 4,233,959 (7.64%) Nicholas Flanagan - 384,333 (0.69%) John May - 41,963 (0.08%) Maurice Critchley - 4,168,131 (7.53%) Tristan and Sarah Lloyd-Baker - 167,290 (0.30%) Royston and Maureen Lloyd-Baker - 135,090 (0.24%) TOTAL: 9,130,766 16.48% It should also be noted that Nigel Wray and his relatives hold at least 18% of AVG.

175k shares (about 0.5% of the freefloat) dumped well below the bid price at 33p. Is that overhang over or just a symptom of further weakness to come?

Might expect TON's trading outlook to be brighter given good growth coming out of South Korea "South Korea's gross domestic product grew 0.9% in the first quarter of 2017 from the previous three months, the central bank estimated on Thursday, accelerating on strong exports and capital investment"

flundra - I just don't think there's enough information out there to call it either way bud. I've scanned through AVG's history of updates and tried to find a link or connection. There are two many variables right now. The thing that bothers me is if it was just an opportunistic bid when we were trading at 40p surely they would have made the bid there and then. Offer something like 50-60p and be done with it. A risky move perhaps having not done proper due diligence but at least they would have secured the acquisition. By declaring an interest it seems more likely that they are serious about acquiring the asset once they are certain it is going to be a valuable addition. Naturally this will take into account the current refinancing situation. Would AVG have made an offer by now if we had completed the refinancing? My gut feeling is yes! So what is happening? Are HAYT playing hardball or is it the bank? Whoever is dragging their heels over the refinancing terms it is unlikely we will see AVG make the offer.. or is it? Perhaps HAYT are in fact dragging their heels because AVG have indicated they will be better placed to absorb the debt and once merged can strike for better refinancing terms. It may turn out that Ed's article is on the ball, that HAYT can't agree a refinancing for a while and the offer subsequently falls through. But from what I read the author of the article doesn't sound all too well versed in these matters. His end note is a ramptastic link to a list of other stocks he is on commission to tip - "PS. If you are not interested in Hayward Tyler Group anymore, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 150 other stocks with a high growth potential" His assessment includes no forward earnings which is rather bizarre given his conclusion " the company fails to impress in terms of generating strong enough operating cash flows and earnings to cover annual interest expenses" One might expect to see those cash flow and earnings figures mentioned.. Also this passage is laughable, well I laughed. It's not quite clear what this analyst is measuring to mark it down. First he mentions earnings at 5x higher than interest payments then he mentions losses. How is he measuring earnings exactly and whoever told him the magic number was 5x. By his statement he is suggesting interest payments are higher than earnings but is he factoring in capital expenditure and is he also forecasting continued losses this year despite capital expenditure falling away? "To keep an eye on how it’s doing on that front, an investor can check how easily the company can service its debt. If it earns at least 5x or more of its interest payments, that’s an indication of financial strength. In HAYT’s case the company is making a loss, therefore interest on debt is not well covered by earnings." I could go on but I think you have the gist I wasn't concerned after reading it lol

Sylvania Platinum once again exceeding expectations! I have estimated net cash would rise to $14.5 million but that was overly cautious with it now up to $16.6 million (although this does include guarantees). Cash generated from operations before working capital movements was 10% more than I predicted rising to $4.4 million and a significant proportion of this was retained in the company's cash balance by quarter end. The basket price rose $70/oz which is just above my upper end estimate and production was stronger than expected - we were expecting it to pull back from recent highs. We should be looking at a dividend this year

MARL are reacting well to news today that it will be gobbled up for 84.38% premium to yesterdays closing share price. Still has upside potential although not confirmed. We can only dream... http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MARL&ArticleCode=ghet6k1u&ArticleHeadline=Mariana_Resources_Ltd___Recommended_Combination_of_Mariana_Resources_Limited_and_Sandstorm_Gold_Ltd

poole - the current thinking is that AVG will make an all share offer to merge the two companies, as they don't have enough cash to buy HAYT outright at a fair premium and still fund the projects. So it leaves two options from where I am sitting, maybe there is another. The most popular suggested is that they announce a merger with a fair ratio so HAYT shareholders receive a stake in the enlarged entity. This may have seemed possible when we were trading at 40p but now we are around 60p the dilution to AVG shareholders will be much greater. Stranger things have happened so it is entirely plausible. The alternative is having done their due diligence they may seek to take a large stake in the business by offering much need cash in a share subscription. There is no reason why they can't do this. The question is does it make sense? If they take an equity stake in a depressed stock that is in need of cash to fund expanding orders and they benefit from stock price appreciation and the company recording better trading results it's a no brainier. Why would that not be viable? I'm talking about a 20-25% stake. I agree with you though the two look a potentially good fit but I can't see AVG getting this cheap now.

AVG might not be able to afford to buy HAYT outright but they could offer to subscribe for new shares raising much needed capital. In the process becoming the largest shareholder if that is their objective. They would benefit from the growth we are likely to experience in the coming years through share price appreciation and dividends. Could even agree a subscription at a minor discount. This to me seems more plausible than a takeover given their resources and our valuation now

Sentiment here is much improved since the AVG news, a complete 180 and the best is yet to come. - completion of refinancing deal which reduces risk - better than expected FY results owing to last minute contracts in the final quarter - what will be a likely record earnings generating Q1 thanks to the order book and delayed orders from the previous year - the ongoing AVG offer (the longer it hangs over us the better) - the market is fluid when there is speculation like this but if they do announce an offer it will somewhat add a ceiling to potential highs - institutional buying into the longer term outlook Exciting times :)