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One other subtle factor I've noticed is my basket price forecasts have been increasingly less accurate. The method of calculation hasn't changed, but the margin of error has grown. If this was a random anomaly there wouldn't be a linear trend emerging which there clearly is Check out my estimates compared to the reported basket price below. end of Jun 2016 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $862 v $859 (-$3) end of Sep 2016 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $929 v $937 (+$8) end of Dec 2016 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $858 v $881 (+$23) end of Mar 2017 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $920 v $951 (+$31) end of Jun 2017 PGM basket price estimate vs actual: $917 v $963 (+$46) end of Sep 2017 PGM basket price estimate vs actual *est: $960 v $1010 (+$50) This coincides with the rising price of PGMs and is in my opinion indicative of producers receiving a better spread selling physical each quarter. The demand for palladium and rhodium has been incredible and it is widely known that producers sell above the market spot price if demand is there. Therefore we might expect the premium on the spread to have been even higher this past quarter given the volatility in the PM markets. To be cautious the reported basket price will probably sit around $995 which is still a fantastic quarterly gain for us, boosting EBITDA and cash but if the trend of higher physical spreads has continued then a basket price closer to $1010/oz is likely.

The company has released an updated presentation on their website this past week. Of importance the company have confirmed value will be created from "Production of approximately 70koz/year from current operations". Interesting Pheonix is not included in these calculation as the acquisition has yet to be completed. Now once Pheonix is integrated we might expect to see production forecasts rise to 80-82koz/year Cash costs are predicted to be stable, new low cost Project Echo ounces countering the rising ZAR exchange and other cost inflation. Pheonix will push costs higher towards the $500/oz range but as we are witnessing the basket price is rising quarter on quarter. Palladium has overtaken platinum and that is a telling sign of demand. Rhodium has risen even further in recent weeks to $1170/oz. Expect the trend to continue, platinum and gold will lag behind star performers palladium and rhodium but all should perform well if the USD remains weak. First quarter results are due later this month and we are sat at 10.5p (�30m). This is far too cheap. The company are slowly buying back shares through scheme awards and building the cash position despite funding Project Echo. Pheonix will be immediately value enhancing boosting quarterly revenue, EBITDA and profits and could pave the way for further acquisitions in 2018. Who else is excited?

That was a well judged prediction poole and you have been proven correct thus far. The reaction to the Final Results and Dividend announcement were as perhaps expected muted. The excitement post period end with the acquisition of Hayward Tyler is the future organic growth of this company, especially considering the size of AVG's core remaining businesses and with oil prices remaining low. I was hoping to read more details about the combined synergies and the continuing growth during and since the acquisition was completed. We will need to be patient for that, here's my thoughts anyway The final dividend of 2.2 pence per share will be paid to holders up to 27 October 2017 and hit our accounts around the 8th December 2017, an early Christmas present but not if the share price continues to bob along at this level. Revenue from continuing operations was £22.7m and EBITDA was £0.7m Now these two figures alone did not justify AVG's market value pre-HAYT bid, they had released value through the disposal of Sigma returning value to shareholders and retaining cash on the books. The company's 'finger in many pies' policy does seem to be a strategically successful one and their current plays are exciting for a variety of reasons mentioned in the FY report. I won't add to speculation as to how well these will perform in the coming year or their perceived value to a rival looking to make acquisitions. The direction the company is taking looks well thought through. Valuing these ventures at such an early stage on their revenue isn't meaningful I believe, rather their growth potential and niche within the sector. However Hayward Tyler brings a list of impressive assets, not least the workforce and it's ongoing revenue generation which will significantly boost Group earnings by the Interims. On a PE ratio we don't appear to be trading on forward earning forecasts

Palladium trading higher than platinum now, parity has come. Now expect some fundamentals to shift in the coming months as palladium continues to outperform.

I'm not 100% sure but I believe Apple or was it Google came in and plugged the market gap Fitbug was hoping to exploit. These small tech ventures are risky for the simple reason their ideas and tech can be replicated by the market leaders. A gold explorer becomes the temporary lease holder of a geographically defined area and finds on these properties cannot simply be replicated. They are unique. The risks involved cannot be compared. It is better comparing this to CNR, MARL (which has been bought out), CMCL and the like. CNR is located in Nicaragua and has been exploring for around 7 years. Progress is always slow with small explorers but the potential to make lots of money from these stocks is much better than the huge producers. All it takes is a steady stream of finds, progress towards establishing a resource or larger resource and a rising gold price. This company is in a safer jurisdiction than CNR and presents a cheap option to be exposed to increasingly frequent M&A of junior gold explorers and a rising gold price (courtesy of USD weakness). The update concerning Lamaune was in the works a while back it seems as anyone following the history will have known and the recent comments from Landore about the potential for the recent gold finds to continue along the full "east west extent of the greenstone belt" across the Landore and Lamaune properties. So although we didn't collect $6.1m in owed loans the market was well aware of the financial difficulties Lamaune faced and so this deal will grant us exploration potential to further increase the size of this find. Such low cost moves can strategically become the most beneficial if it turns out the combined resource is enough to encourage interest from more financial backers or even a major. Worth pointing out this company has been drilling in the area since 2003 at sporadic intervals and it was only in 2015 that they discovered something worthy of follow-up. Even then the project has only recently benefited from step out drilling 150 metres south of the BAM East Gold Deposit which showed consistent intersected mineralisation with grades similar to the 2015 find. Mineralisation is improving to the east according to the latest company update. A follow up drill programme is planned to commence this Christmas to 1) expand the BAM Zone with the aim of delineating a separate open pit deposit and 2) to test the area to join with the BAM East Gold Deposit I would hope that following a successful winter campaign the company will be in a position to increase the NI resource estimate from the current 301koz as established in February 2017 to more than 500oz as things stand with the winter results to boost it further. I have followed both CNR's and SMA's progress previously and come close with resource estimates based on the results released to market so I am reasonably confident in my assumptions.

Nice to hear from you guys, my shares popped up 2 days ago and I bought my first tranche of AVG today. Pretty volatile at the moment but expect once newsflow trickles in, refinancing here, more contracts secured there then value will be added. HAYT are being steered out of rough waters under the command of a better helm. Christmas predictions what do we think, too early? Bah humbug let's hear them :)

Have any of the old HAYT shareholders received their AVG stock yet?

Nice post! That article links the palladium rally to a variety of factors, one of which I hadn't understood until now was for military uses and it's hard to refute this connection given how the discount to platinum has shrunk to about $20 whilst breaking highs daily. The fact all PMs are rising as a sector is more a symptom of global uncertainty (eve of war?) and USD weakness I feel and that helps explain why platinum has rallied a little also. Basket price today is up to $1030/oz and looking like it will be the strongest month of this quarter :)

Nicely up indeed 256 / 52

Knocking on 12p :) Gold up $1330, Rhodium at $1100, Platinum above $1000 and Palladium at $940

Hi Ragnar, I agree platinum has up until recently been dragging the basket price down. However, today as it stands the basket price is at its highest in more than two years. In fact to make life even easier the current basket price is about the same as the platinum price, which is pure coincidence and a result of rhodium, palladium and gold rising quickly in recent weeks. Tomorrow should pull in more buyers but with this share it may take many days or weeks even before we see value recognised. We can all be confident at least for what lies ahead assuming this trend continues

Late £15k buy at 51p Possibly mid 50s value equivalent one the AVG shares are distributed if this trend continues. News of a settlement or completion of refinancing talks with the bank would help boost the market value. Expect that to come once AVG have completed the process of acquiring HAYT. Also expect to see a bullish H1 trading performance as our board had indicated was likely in the not so distant future. Now any increased order activity which may have been 'delayed' for want of a better word could be revealed. The cash-flow risks which will not be such a threat going forward may be addressed to ease market concerns also.

Absolutely :) Rhodium up to $1080 now

Phoenix was not recognised as an asset in the FY report, the cash payment had not been made and still hasn't (we will receive official notification). Production increased steadily throughout the year in fact as a result of a number of management initiatives which were addressed in the quarterly updates. We still have Phoenix output to add in the not so distant future and that will take us to 80koz more or less

One thing I've just spotted is they appear to have moved much of the Project Echo spending forward into years 2018 and 2019. So that might delay dividend payments however on a brighter note the company has stated the "SDO production profile can be sustained at ~70,000oz in medium term and that is a huge boon! We were initially expecting 60,000oz to dip to below 55,000oz when the company released details of Project Echo. This shows that the performance we have seen in the past year was not a one-off and being sustainable raises the question about just how much more value can be unlocked given the cautious guidance we are used to. Hopefully a good deal more :)

You're right it's in the presentation, thanks for pointing that out. Dividend payments have been pushed back a number of times for different reasons but unless we see another acquisition post Phoenix completion then like you I would think the company will announce a dividend scheme. "Pay shareholder dividends when higher sustained PGM prices are achieved, and Project Echo funded from internal resources and rolled out across operation" My favourite part in the presentation is "a new record annual production of 70,869oz for FY2017 with a positive Group EBITDA of $18.4m" The split of metals has changed so anyone keeping track of the weekly or daily price might want to change their excel spreadsheets. Slightly higher palladium content in the split, not so bad considering the premium platinum and rhodium command is narrowing. Pt: 62.4% to 62.1% Pd: 23.7% to 24.2% Rh: 13.7% to 13.5% Au: 0.2% (no change) We are in a fantastic position on the cash curve chart! $453/oz now but that will fall further as Project Echo grows to take up the slack. I wonder if by the Interim period will we be able to claim the lowest cash costs compared to our competitors. Phoenix may hamper that result thereafter but it will be close :)

@Ragnar - appreciate your take on that, do you have the source regarding conditions of dividend commencement? I seem to remember the point about a sustained recovery in precious metal prices being the primary motive but it would be good to read your points confirmed. @Visitor - Yes that's right, cash costs will fall below the $600 I suggested if they are able to replicate the model they have adopted for the SDO operations. Our cash costs haven't always been this low as they are now, we only need look back a year ago and then again at the quarter performance reports to see how well we are doing. And you're right this is our forte! SLP expertise is built around this form of production, tailings dumps are no walk in the park and clearly PAF have bigger fish to fry and so we might assume, with a degree of certainty that SLP can implement their 'best practice' method which is tried and tested. Nothing is guaranteed but the fact the company have indicated similar is confidence enough for me :)

Resistance is futile. Or at least it was in our case, nicely orchestrated to succeed before the approach was even revealed to private investors, by then many had sold down or moved on following the p*ss poor management of finances and the worsening risks.. So today we hear the deal is done and in 11 days we will receive our AVG shares. Somebody has duly dumped £24k today at a knock down price, possibly one of the rebels but more likely a 'third party' who bought stock to ensure the vote passed. Anyone selling now has to be crazy! Despite not liking this deal one would have to be blind not to see the positives from suring up the near term debt obligations and boosting free cash for increasing the rollout of orders and such. It's no surprise to see buys up to 49p sweeping up the leftover stock.

Better than expected result today, this is. pretty good mornings rise by SLP standards, still got the rest of the week yet :) I think it's very positive also that our side projects are receiving certain approvals that so often hamper small explorers. The SDO operation has exceeded company expectations and growth from here will come from Phoenix this coming year. The current basket price is a good $50-60/oz higher than the year average and we may produce 80koz with Phoenix. Cash cost will be higher (Phoenix is $600/oz+) but group costs combined should help boost cash generation by at least $3m, possibly $4m. The share buy back isn't so positive, throwing cash at what appear to be 'dead stock'. Would be better if liquid stock was removed from the market. The share capital will reduce and so therefore the market cap will fall if the share price stays the same. I don't think anyone expects that to happen even if free cash is being spent in this way.

Treadstone don't mind the range trading, it's all feeding into extra $ for SLP and will strengthen the case for a rerate here in the coming months. Palladium isn't settled nor Rhodium and the upwards momentum recently has pushed platinum to this $980 level we are seeing - the situation is looking much rosier than just a couple months ago when platinum was testing below $900 so we should take heart. Now Rhodium rose to $1060 two days ago and palladium was testing $930 today, adding a couple million to our annual cash flow generation in the space of a month or so. Despite the auto industry fundamentals for platinum being weak I have always said that institutional and high net worth investors will take up the slack and buy platinum as an investment rather than for industry use especially as it continues to lag behind the rising PGM sector. We have witnessed this in the recent past and will no doubt hear more about this in future. $1000/oz palladium is coming and I wouldn't like to wager platinum will be much lower than current prices when it does happen :) have a great weekend