Member Info for the_Chuz

"Red as I post my reply. When btc chasing $70k. Glass not even down off the shelf, is it?"

I must admit it's a over delicate stock, btc has falling from 68 something to 67 something so nothing too dramatic. I think the timing was the worst but as it looks like it's due a breather at around 60k so maybe being sold off based on an expected btc drop which might not happen.

@Donold

Not sure you can blame shorters, fudder or such like, btc is taking a dive. Hopefully not too bad though, in all fairness I think we were.all anticipating a pull back and breather.

Just a shame tmArgo stock hasnt responded to the upward movement of btc in any serious way. Could mean that it doesn't feel the fall too? *cough*

That drop was my cue to take profit, hopefully bottom outnat low 60's /high 50's and off we go again, maybe a few days.

Or it could pop back up in 10 minutes and jobs a good un, we've all seen it before.

Not so sure, btc is having a moment

@Chaebol

"Chuz I see what you mean, more money required……perhaps we will see a few more loan notes be issued. Which is better than dilution at this low sp, let’s see….75 million became 115 million didn’t is so if it’s well received they can do another 50."

Ive got to admit I do like the note idea and really hope it takes off well.

It makes me wonder why this route though and not an formal loan like with Galaxy and the answer maybe as simple as its cheaper (galaxy original loan was at 12%).

If there is appetite for it in a big way then it maybe the way to sensible growth and you could even make a public plan stating so. I. E. Twice a year we will issue high interest notes and that gives us time to get machines installed and have them paying for themselves and the notes.

It's a little too simplistic though so I'm not sure if it will work like that else all miners could do it.

I would love to find a miner that sells a third of its hodl every month and does a quarterly dividend.

@myself

"So now we would have 80,000 * 1500 = £120 million which we still don't have."

I suppose we do have it if we use that 100million loan facility and then some leftovers.

So it is actually possible (if 1.5k is realistic for a s17)

@amanesia
"If we use old unwanted S17s, overclocked and immersion-cooled to remove the heatsink issues that have put them so out of favour, possibly we don't need to raise much, or even at all."

Its possible but eww.

S17 are notoriously bad but as you say maybe that can be over come.

They run at 56TH (s19 110TH) and run at 2520 Watts.

To kit out 200mw we would need close to 80k machines.

Let's say we can buy some half cooked ones for £1.5k (going price from what I can see is atleast £3k).

So now we would have 80,000 * 1500 = £120 million which we still don't have.

As standard that 120 million gbp would 4.4EH in S17s (run them in immersion and it gets us to 5.5 eh)

Kitting out with s19s will get us 6.6 eh for 170 million gbp

No matter how I work out costs of machines we still don't come close.

I've just done those figures now so please someone check them and say if I've messed it up.

@Willibo

"Chuz,
Unless they sell HODL there are bound to be more raises. But when do you think they will happen? Tomorrow?"

Hopwfully not.

But let me ask you this, when do you want 200mw of running rigs in Helios? If we were to order 60k S19s in one go today, how long do you think it will take for delivery + install.

We probably won't place an order for 60k machines because I would imagine no one would take that order unless a caveat of increasing demand and future face value price was built into the contract.

So let's say we place a repeat order, how long will it be for Helios to be up and running?

I could be wrong but wasn't the target to have 200mw up and running by end of July time next year? If that's right (please double check) then we have 8 months to get 60k machines on order. What's the lead time?

Once we have that it we can make a reasonable guess on when we will need to fund raise in some fashion.

In my opinion, based on the above, the fund raise (in whatever form loan, sharea etc) will be within 'months'.

Once again I'm happy to be shot down and proven/opinioned wrong

"Chaebol - " I hope the 57 million is enough with all told to build the 200mw. "

I do not see how 57 million could touch the sides. If each machine is 3kw and we need 60k machines to fill 200mw then each machine would have to cost 950 quid. Just ain't gonna happen, that's not me being negative it's just people's expectations are unrealistic.

If the 57mil is combined with the full 100mil loan then we should be OK for 100mw.

Thr 57mil is more likely due to overspend or price increases for Helios, or a new project investment or as the down payment to the 'batched' machines Argo announce a few weeks ago.... Or a per rns could be a combination of all 3.

I see posts on here about how there's no more dilution and we are funded for Helios and I despair.

You all think I'm negative, but please do the math. As I have said unpteem times I love to be wrong on this sort of thing because then ive learnt something

"Will be equally amazed as happy if we 100% in 3 weeks"

Me too, the market just doesn't seem to want to know.

Pre IPO before the spike to 170p we were in a trading range of around 125p to 135p that was with BTC at 40k.

Today with btc at 68k we are at 135p we do have more shares in issue but equally we have cash equivilant in the bank, I. E. Dilution for the right reason.

We took a 25% dilution so 130p - 25% = 97p at equivilant value with no funds raised.

BTC has risen 70% during that time (doh and double doh!) so even if the money spend from the IPO was spent on meals out then we should be 97p + 70% = 165p

So we should be sat comfortably at 165p+ without Helios build funded.

I have always thought and agreed that Argo was underpriced which is why I am invested here, but it's a real concern that the market doesn't want to know about it at all.

@CaneToad

Now that is sage advice! Haha.. Although I am probably one of the few on here thats actually had my nutz bitten on more than one occasion and not in a nice way (spent around 10 years modified MMA where biting and gouging, fishooking were all encouraged). Sometimes a kick would of been more pleasant!

I have aldo managed to heel kick myself in the nads more than a few times too, it's a wonder I had it in me for kids haha.

@Amanesi

"Imagine what the movement would have been if the RNS had said we were issuing shares at a 20% discount to raise $57.5m.

It didn't. I'm happy."

Too true, me too, the alternative would of been a bit of a kick in the testies.

I think until the elephant in the room of funding for the 200mw is addressed were going to have the ball and chain.

@Amanesia

"What if an asteroid lands on your head."

I just couldn't help myself.. There's around a 1 in 840 million chance of you being hit by a meteorite in your lifetime, less so in the next 3 years.

There is an almost certainty that Argo will issue more shares within the next 3 years.

I know it was just an example but I couldn't help myself :)

As much as many people here were /are really excited about the note the market isn't particularly enthralled with it, ARBKF is up around 5% on nasdaq which is pretty much reflective of the rns's being ignore by the market.

@Caddor

"Chuz, to here you say something positive makes me sick to my stomach"

I was wincing as I was typing it..

@Javier
"
it is to my underdranding that 200mw is fully funded, and whoever says different is trader/shorter. Recent news is the best one so far in the last 6 months"

Genuinly, how is the 200mw fully funded?

Some s19s for 200mw would come in at around 240million usd (maybe more) just for the rigs so around 175 million gbp.

If today's raise is for 57 mil for op expenses, rigs building etc I don't see how it bridges the gap?

Yes I know this will seem negative but such is life.. I'm suprised the SP hasn't risen more considering mara and riot are up about 18% today.

Both rns were reasonably positive..

As for the person who commented on how bad people sold out at 120p must feel, for me, not at all as Im am. Significantly up more in riot than here..

My o ly regret is not selling more, I've still got 30% in Argo.

Onwards and upwards, quarters and years.

Filter away :)

@pop
"Even 300p upwards. Below that very dangerous. If PW and the BoD don't see that, they need educating fast. I suggest they do understand."

My calcs a while back were based on dilution at 300p to raise enough to fully kit out Helios first 200mw.

Issue another 100 million shares at around 300p and you dilute by 20% but have 6.6 eh extra.

The trick is to get it to 300p first and as I've stated in the past I would arrange a 250 million loan which would be enough to kit out the first 200. Place the order using the loan as the ability to pay. That in itself should make the share price reach 300p then dilute by 20%.

I would be quite happy with that as a share holder as that 20% dilution would soon be made up by a significant hash increase.

Dilution if done properly isn't an issue at all, its how we grow.

Using it for swimming pools, retrospective green credentials etc is not typically good use of share holder money

@Pear
"RIP to those who sold at 120p instead of buying. I did mention that day to consider countertrading yourselves and your emotions"

That would depend if after selling you bought one of the other big miners, let's see how they do when the nasdaq opens.. See if they doore than 5% iah

My understanding is that each transaction above 10k usd will need to be reported so the name, address details are.logged by thier tax man.

I can see how it would work for new btc generated as the onus will be on the miner, I also get how it would work with the exchanges as they will request the details.

But for all other peer to peer transactions I can't see how it would be enforced other than telling people too.

Same I.suppose for buying large amounts of bullion in the UK.

As for posting the positives along with negatives, the original post want negative it was a statement of what's happened.

I swear some posters here would want me to post " I saw someone get stabbed last night, can't believe how lucky they are as they get to rest in hospital for a few weeks"

@Rumandpoker

"Why don't u two start a discussion on how the space race or the colour of toothbrush used this morning will mess up BTC mining."

Uncalled for.

I saw it on my news feed and up until that point didn't know it had been passed without ammendment because Ive not seen it being discussed anywhere, so then I wondered how relevant it actually was.

I do not see how the colour of a toothbrush relates to out stock holding or btc but I can see that the infrastructure bill does have a potential direct relationship to btc and our mining activities.

I'm getting a little tired with some people's reactions and replies here, it resembles how my two year old hides behind her hands thinking no one can see her.

Maybe if we hide behind our hands then none of the risks exists, maybe if we just don't mention it then it dissapears.

That way we can all join together happy clapping the Argo team and blame those mean market makers, shorters and maybe even that toothbrush you refer too.