Member Info for the_Chuz

@Argobull

"The real question to ask yourself is - Are Argo growing their hash rate % wise vs network hash growth. We have 1.6 now, and will have 3.7 by year end. With immersion it will be more (5EH I expect). Is the network hash rate going to triple this year? I think not. Are Argo's electricity costs about to drop significantly?"

Yes I see that as a very valid way to look at it, if Argo can increase its overall share of the hashrate then its on to a winner... With funding, it may be able to double its hash current hashrate. Let's hope its enough when others are eaisly over doubling thier rate + new kids on the block having a go.

@Hexam

"Secondly if (and it is an if) ARB can achieve a significant portion of their revenue from diversification then obviously they will be less reliant on mining for growth."

Now that bit I completely agree with, if we can diversify enough then mining will be less of an issue but at that point I wouldn't put us in the mining bucket anymore...

Thing is, I'm not even sure about the worth of our current diverisifcations, that window of transparency looks boarded up to me.

@Argobull

"
Would you rather mine 10BTC at $38, or 4BTC at $100k? In fiat terms it is the same money you have earned - smaller piece of a bigger pie. However that all said, 800MW of machines is a lot of EH (Chuz now starts frothing at the mouth yelling funding at the keyboard!!)."

Yes too right funding!

But that to one side...

Assume there are 100 btc per year to be mined and there are just 3 miners

All start off with the same eh of 2 eh so they get 33% each of the 100 btc in the first year so 33 btc each.

The following year 2 of them treble thier eh.

So now we have 2 miners with with 6 eh each and one with 2 eh.

There are still only 100 btc to be had.. 2 companies get 42% of the btc each and the 3 company gets 14%.

If that was btc its starts off with everyone having 33btc each in the first year but by the second year the compa y who stayed at 2 eh will get 14 btc instead of 33.

The company at 2 eh will find it much harder to raise funds compared to 6 eh companies (which is what we see with argo and mara being able to raise 600million + with ease).

That money that's raised then buys new machines and squeases the 2 eh company even more.

Yes we can try and rely on the ever increasing price of btc but that just hasn't happend recently, the difficulty has continued to increase but the price has gone down. Also of it just goes up then people will go for the bigger miners which again is what we have seen.

Argo will get bought out or merged. They have moved too slow and the whole quarters and years nonsense just damages the company.

@James
"Chuz, you talk like it is a winner takes all market when it is very specifically the opposite."

I do not see how its the opposite..

If I miner increases its hashrate by a larger proportion than its rivals it will generate more BTC. The opposite is true.

I mine ETH personally, In the past 6-9 I have seen the quantity of ETH that I mine drop by around half. My equipment has remained stable but others have bought more kit online so the difficulty has increased. I now get considerably less ETH than I did 6-9 months ago.

That means I make less profit simples.

If the other miners significantly increase thier market share of the hashrate it pushes the difficulty up. If everyone increases and we don't we will generate less btc per month than we currently do.

"Am I the only one thinking that this Sphere 3d article makes ARB Mcap seem even cheaper?"

It makes me think that arb will get squeezed out of the game.. 3.7eh v 24eh.. + riots increase + mara.. Unless arb do something spectacular they will keep losing market share.

Slow and steady quarters and years will find them running in a race that's already be won.

The future for argo is a buy out by one of the big boys.

More like touched than broken then with a very difinitive slap back down.

@flowerpot

Im thinking the future will be the merger of smaller miners and maybe just a few companies left in the game. It will become too expensive to get in on the act.

The constant need to grow and use more and more power will be the killer I think unless there was some other way of dealing with its huge resource requirement.

@poorinvestor

"Where as miners are at the early stage of their industry, the infrastructure is getting put in place,"

But there can never be enough infrastructure or enough machines the more there is the more you need, genius really.

My doomsday scenario is if the price of btc breaks to low and causes the miners or microstrategy to become distressed sellers, it's then just a helter skelter to the bottom.

Most concerning is if microstrategy is ever force to drop its btc I thi k it would be game over.

It's all in its infancy for sure, it's needs some robustness

@flowerpot
"Tlhe more reluctant they will become to sell their btc too, in my opinion"

Yea, I think most of the big miners might if been better off doing the microstrategy bit and just buying btc, I'd imagine the likes of riot have raised over a billion in its time, could of bought a lot of coin with that.

@poorinvestor

". A lot of these miners will invest their profits into offshore wind farms and hydroelectricity, mark my words. Win win for them."

If the industry can sort itself out then maybe yes and it would be a good move.. The issue right now though is that none of them make real life profit, its all just pretend profit which evaporates when the price of btc falls.

If the miners only ever hodl there is no cash flow, just raise after raise and debt, if they never sell btc there will never be a profit

I'm still pinning it on the financing that needs to be done.

I know a few on here say they are happy to take the hit which is kind of them, but since I have already paid my fair share for Helios I don't want to be holding another set if bags fir the rigs. I'd imagine alot if investors are thinking the same.

Argo gives it all the talk about transparency but in reality it is one of the worst for it so its difficult to not just assume there will be a placing.

"downside from here is minus 66p"

That's also an odd way to look at it unless it's a spread bet or such like and your on margin.. 66p only needs to drop 33p (which we have done twice over recently) to be a 50% loss.

I think it's shown that miners themselves arnt really investible, they cannot control thier own destiny they can nearly move from lane to lane on the motorway that bitcoin lays. They can mess things up and be bad or good in comparison to to thier piers but ultimately a rubbish miner will get dragged up by a high btc price and a good miner will beheld down by a low bitcoin price.

The destiny is not theirs.. Looks like at best they are for speculation and trading

"Btc is going mental atm, be interesting to see which way it turns out"

Down by the looks of it.. Its OK though... Buy the dil

"" CaneToad so where do we go from here ?"

Let's see the steel of those who are shorting.. If they are are set too close for loss then we should get a bit of juice squeezed from them... Back to 42 surely

Hope everyone bought the dip!

Or its a fools rally and will carry on back down to 30.. Then buy the dip

"who was ramping MARA and RIOT"

Riot is my pick.. I reckon I will be around 65% down buy the end of today.

I am interested to see how this plays out now.. Since I've lost most of my money. I knew I should of stayed cash but ya know.. Gotto buy the dips!

Remember how annoyed we were with argo at 15dollar IPO.. Be nice to get back to that now ha

All I can say is.... Ummm buy the Dip!

@jayblu

"4p is the value put on NFT shares so you are calculating it is a one for one"

Doh of course yes, the 4p isn't for the pluto share, so could be alot higher for pluto holders.

Thankyou for the correction

I just read further.. 4p per share.. Didn't you turn down more than that in the past Kev? Maybe its just first price and not best price.

I'll be interested in Kevs view in this, as i know he was excited about pluto. £96 million for the company (first offer atleast). With us holding 25% then in straight line terms it's 24million to argo. Better than nothing but not quite anywhere what we need for kit out.

Depends how it's all structured though, especially if it's a share deal and not "cash".

How does it price your shares Kev?

Just a dip, it will be fine.... I'm only 60% down.