Member Info for the_Chuz

@Canetoad
"I was shocked by the Saylor story"

Yes it made for some unpalatable reading. I've never liked his buzz word based mantra but after reading about it all I don't want to take onboard a word he says.

It kind of is all ponzi, I've been coming to that conclusion for a while, it doesn't matter about the company fundamentals if the underlying assets that is produce and hodl is based on greater fool. Its why I want out on the next leg up.

Just incase we forgot about very recent btc history..
BTC prices

20th July - $29.7k - same talk as now with crypto winter and doom. It will never recover, should of sold, regulation etc.

20th Aug - $49.2k - everyone happy again, 100k btc, nothing can stop it now.

20th sept - $43k - it was just a blip were on our way back down, the share price sucks. Previous month was a bull trap.

20th Oct - $66k btc - to the moon, 500k btc, btc is your freedom, it is your digital property, look at how much is invested nothing can every stop it, even sovereign states are buying it.

12 weeks that's all, from 29k to 66k.

Yes I'm annoyed I didn't sell and buy back as I would have made a small fortune.. But I didn't.. So like others I have to wait it out.. Until 75k then I'm out of the crazy game.

It's actually gone up a bit after hitting 42,700 earlier.

Who remembers about 6 months ago when we were at 30k btc and then within what seemed like weeks we we are 65k btc? We all got to complain (not Kev of course) about how btc has doubled and our share price has just watched it.

That was from 30k not very long ago, it can do the big steps ups just as well as it can do the step downs.

Of course I wish it was higher and that I wasn't arou d 50% down on my whole investment pot and pension BUT that's just the reality of it.

I'm still Co gident it will turn quick

@kev

"I really don’t care what the “actual current” price is and I have never made ANY prediction on btc, because NOBODY knows what it is going to do. It’s Bitcoin. Bitcoin goes up and down every instant of every day.

Wait, can you tell me what the price is now, please, or do I have to do it myself?"

More and more you don't seem to care about any relevant or current information or view that doesn't align perfect with your own. If you just hold onto the belief that the price of btc doesn't matter, the share price doesn't matter and pluto will save all, then I think you may be in for an unfortunate surprise when the moment of realisation hits.

Were all in the same boat of HMS BTC and along for the ride.

Hey Monkfish

As you probably know that feeling you have right now can often be followed by a big increase.. Once everyone is beaten. Down and thrown in the chips it goes up.. Who knows though

Anyone wanna buy a kidney?

In all seriousness, yes it's ugly but if you look at the charts it has exactly the same pattern as 2 previous run downs. I am expecting a pretty big reversal next week and then on to 75k before April.

43,550.

Wont somebody think of the children!

Just as

Below is from email coms with ML in 2010 - around the time of liberty we'll... Cash flow positive came out.. I won't post any replies I recived as its bad form, but I just wanted to highlight that I wouldn't get too excited by "cash flow positive"

I can't find the original rns from 2010 but here is part of one of my emails from back then.

I See we run at a cost of about £600K a year (time for economy class and beans on toast i think :-) ) so when you say we are operationally cash flow positive i presume that means taking in more money than it costs to produce the barrels but not including "other" running costs so as such at present rate the company still has a significant cash short fall to break even?

Another round of btc having a dump, it's whst makes the miners pretty uninvestable. Anyone who think they are 'investing' in a btc miner is really just gambling on the price of btc.

All a bit daft really.. A return to 65k and I think I'm out of "investing" in miners for good.. Unless one will actually pay a dividend

"Argobull - installing more machines, you know thing we don't have enough of."

That's why the team maybe missing a trick by saying they won't lease space.

I'm sure there are certain liabilities but these could be negotiated to an acceptable level then fill the unused capacity in the facility to the rafters with leased machines and just take btc fee.

Charge 15% to host the machines, that's 5% electric, 5% maintenance and 5%profit (3000 machines)

Then when you have machines wind down the contracts.

But on the same note.. Why bother when you can just hit the current shareholders with a dilution and buy loads of machines for yourself... Which would grow the company market cap quite hansomly but just take the share price down for a while.

"Another interesting snippet from the below is even as a joint venture they are paying nigh on 3 cents for their dirty electricity where as I think from memory renewables at Helios will be around 2 cents"

To put it into perspective, that extra cost of 1 cent is equivilant to about $17.5 million based on a full 200mw of s19 pros per year. Which sounds like a lot but that full 200mw will ge rate about $670 million per year income.

I would prefer to have 200mw of 'expensive dirty' electric and pay $17.5 million more a year than have half the amount of rigs and lose out on $ 335 million income.. Its a race and efficiency costs doesn't matter as much as people make out here.

To put it anothrr way, 200mw is around 60k machines, paying 50% more in electric (from 2c to 3c) works out to be the difference of 1600 machines. So if you compare 2 companies.. One having 60000@ 2c and the other having 58,400 machines thier gross profit would be the same.

That's for a full suite of 200mw of s19s to see that difference, the quantity that argo will have as far as we know so far will be Much less.

The price of electricity is obviously a factor but it doesn't havn't the weight people percribe to it on here.

Since you mention arbk.. If anyone wants to get a different perspective on posting style then take a look st the arbk stocktwits birds, they are not happy campers at all.

Very amusing too read it all, if you think there is negativity here you should read some off what's written there.

Looks like btc doing it's now usual grind up and sudden drop.. Makes the charts look bad.. It seems to be nudging a little lower each time too. 45,700.

Hopefully will keep finding support here otherwise there's been a lot of chat for nothing.

I would point out that since we have been getting the news of II's buying in the share price has fallen time and time again, ironically going up when II sold some.

So I for one am not convinced of any particular positive Impact they are having, I base that on what I see with my own eyes.

@Argobull

I like your thought process there, I personally see it as over optimistic and not really enough to make a dent as we would be using existing rigs albeit with effiicncy improvements.

But I really like the fact you've out some thought into how the 200mw "could" be achieved. I wish others would do the same because most likely the truth will be somewhere in the middle of the opposing views.

@rory

Pw pretty much ruled out it being a hosing facility.

They will be able to raise money, just depends on how much of a discount, remember.. Existing share holders do not provide any real worth to the company, the share price itself serves no purpose to the company other than to be able to raise more money.

To be honest we really shouldn't be having these types of conversations on here because we should just knowthe top level detail.

I think argo shouldnt of listed on the nasdaq, it was a big fish in a small pond.. Now its a small fish in a big pond and has no USP. The other nasdaq listed miners appear significantly better funded and accepted.

For all the noise that argo makes about being the underdog and being 'scrappy' whilst proclaiming how transparent it is the reality of it is that its small and underfunded compared to its piers and it definitely not as transparent as its piers on strategy, pricing, etc.

It wants to play with the big boys but keeps messing in its nappy.

@flowerpot

"This is what PW has said, if I'm not mistaken?"

Yes,he will be kind to existing shareholders and give then a way to lessen the dilutive effect (by a few percent probably)

@hexam

Yea you are probably right, it wouldn't touch the sides really... Oh well.. Joint venture or buy out it is then haha.

Dilution to 50p and colateraling anything we can (pluto stuff) with a expected quick recovery for the share price.

I'm not even sure with all the money to hand we would get new machines by the end of the year with the way mara and riot have been buying. Of course there's always ePIC..

@Hexam

"@Chuz - I'm not saying they have paid for those machines already (almost certainly they haven't) just that they should have enough BTC to comfortably meet the remaining costs especially as money is not due now but only when installed. Of course whether they choose to sell BTC is another question."

Ahh gotcha, I misunderstood what you put. I think it's plausible that we will get a good size loan maybe another 100mil and have it secured by the hodl, which will hopefully uptick the share price as retail won't propey understand the costs involved and there there can be a share issue for another 150 million shares to pay for some more machines.

It's almost the way I would do it except I would get the biggest hodl backed loan I possibly could maybe 300mil or so... The share price would move according then I would issue 300 million worth of shares to pay off the loan.

That way the compa y doesn't carry the debt, exist g shareholders are the bag holders but bigger money would move in so you can just write off the existing holders (not K3V of course, he's special). You can give the existi g shareholders a discount on new shares issued to show how much you care about them too.

Then once the dust has settled.. No extra debt for the company, no selling of btc, just a sting for existing shareholders which will be replaced by new blood piling in at dilution prices who will then carry the flag for argo and say how great a company it is because they are up 30% in 12 months.

It's the sensible way to play it

@Hexam

"We don't have a lot of details on actual cost numbers but would suspect that the 2EH can be installed without the need for extra funding (other than perhaps selling BTC if and when needed)."

I don't share your confidence with the 18, 000 s19s being paid for already.

Even at 6k each (I'm sure it will be higher) that's around $110 million. We put down a deposit which is uknown but if its like riot then that's 35%. From the IPO raise and the extra senior notes we had around $150 million to spend (if memory serves me right 110 & 40).

I would apportion the 110 million to Helios building and the 40 million as a deposit for the 18k machines.

That leaves a 60-70 million hole just for the I stallmenys of the 18k machines... Originally I thought it would be covered by the 100mil loan facility but obviously that won't happen now.

Unless there was a pot of money that hasn't been declared (or I've missed a pot?) I just see a big hole.