@limpalong
"@Chuz, so in your opinion having 60,000 miners sitting around doing nothing at goodness knows what cost is preferable to having a facility able to house miners "
Id take the $550 million of miners on hand over a $100 million empty facility..
I think people are always massively under estimating what the s19 Pro actually costs (let alone the newer machines)
"Chuz the deposit is already paid on the machines, I think they take a third for deposit, and will be delivered over time, so it's not a big payment all at once. You need to open your eyes to possibilities."
Yes, I put 35% deposit as a place holder.. That just leaves about 110 million left to pay... More than the nasdaq IPO raised, but yea I'm sure it will be fine
*Chuz, Argo is more than doubling hash this year, they are growing well, and actually running a solid business that thinks about costs. Also immersion coming in and electricity costs going down. Very profitable."
And I'm going to rent out another 160 houses this year, I just need to find a way of raising money to buy them, so basically I'm a billionaire, I just need the money to buy the assets.. Sorted
@Argobull
Do you think they will leave Helios empty it should be ready to run few months time.. And there is a lead time to getting machines...
If people are just concentrating on the 20,000 machines which still need paying for then they should also stop talking about 200mw facility.
PW made it pretty clear that the next raise will be nicer to existing shareholders buy giving them the option to buy as some type of discount.
I can't believe its going to come as a surprise to people on here.. Of course in reality, everyone will just start saying "of course three was going to be a raise" and Kev will say how happy he is again to be diluted..
@limpalong
"AB your post highlights nicely the fact that racing to buy as many rigs as possible as quickly as possible is a fools errand. “Smart sensible growth” is the way forward."
Umm no it doesn't, mara have more on cash than Argo's whole market cap. Slowly but surely is daft in a race.. Quickly but surely is needed.. Except for aesop and his fables.
@Argobull
Whats a fair premium then? Conidering Argo need to raise a few hundred million..
As for 200mw funded? Not sure I understand that because it's not funded that's the issue unless your thinking that it's just the ability to have 200mw of power that's funded.
I just hope people realise what's coming and do not buy into the usual nonsense on here
"Confirmation that Argo's Texas strategy is the right one, own your own data centre, don't rely on third parties."
So if Mara bought out Argo for let day a 25% premium to today's price (which it could do without too much drama) then it would have a data center to put it 60,000 rigs.
Would everyone be happy then, + 25% is a good premium on a buy out especially for a company who needs to raise funds.
So we would all get 100p per share but as shares in Mara... In all fairness I think it would be a good deal too.
@limpalong
"@Chuz, yawn zzzzzzzzzzzzzz"
Yea I know, it's why I don't post anywhere near as much anymore, even I realise Im just banging on about the funding ALL the time it's just such a fundemntal issue to me that Im not interested in much else until its clear what impact the funding will have.
@Jayblue
"Chuz, then are you assuming any placing will be at 85p or lower?"
Im expecting them placing to be at around 20% discount to the price when it's announced. It wouldnt surprise me if it was as low as the 65p mark but will depend when they have to raise the money.
I think if its not announced very soon then Helios will be a nice shed without much in the way of rigs... We've got the 20k s19s on order but we still have to pay for them just for starters....
Remember... Debt for Argo is an ongoing burden on the balance sheet.. Selling btc is pretty much a no non which leaves issuing shares which does not have any negative impact on the company whatsoever.
If you were running the company which option would you choose.
No matter what is said I just can't see past the massive fund raise that's needed just to hit our current commitments..
"Flowerpot, I don't think this will ever go to 60p again, in fact I don't believe you will be able to buy under 85p, once this gets past 85p in my opinion. This is only going to rise from here. In my honest opinion."
Until the funding is made public... Just saying.
@Argobull
"The real question to ask yourself is - Are Argo growing their hash rate % wise vs network hash growth. We have 1.6 now, and will have 3.7 by year end. With immersion it will be more (5EH I expect). Is the network hash rate going to triple this year? I think not. Are Argo's electricity costs about to drop significantly?"
Yes I see that as a very valid way to look at it, if Argo can increase its overall share of the hashrate then its on to a winner... With funding, it may be able to double its hash current hashrate. Let's hope its enough when others are eaisly over doubling thier rate + new kids on the block having a go.
@Hexam
"Secondly if (and it is an if) ARB can achieve a significant portion of their revenue from diversification then obviously they will be less reliant on mining for growth."
Now that bit I completely agree with, if we can diversify enough then mining will be less of an issue but at that point I wouldn't put us in the mining bucket anymore...
Thing is, I'm not even sure about the worth of our current diverisifcations, that window of transparency looks boarded up to me.
@Argobull
"
Would you rather mine 10BTC at $38, or 4BTC at $100k? In fiat terms it is the same money you have earned - smaller piece of a bigger pie. However that all said, 800MW of machines is a lot of EH (Chuz now starts frothing at the mouth yelling funding at the keyboard!!)."
Yes too right funding!
But that to one side...
Assume there are 100 btc per year to be mined and there are just 3 miners
All start off with the same eh of 2 eh so they get 33% each of the 100 btc in the first year so 33 btc each.
The following year 2 of them treble thier eh.
So now we have 2 miners with with 6 eh each and one with 2 eh.
There are still only 100 btc to be had.. 2 companies get 42% of the btc each and the 3 company gets 14%.
If that was btc its starts off with everyone having 33btc each in the first year but by the second year the compa y who stayed at 2 eh will get 14 btc instead of 33.
The company at 2 eh will find it much harder to raise funds compared to 6 eh companies (which is what we see with argo and mara being able to raise 600million + with ease).
That money that's raised then buys new machines and squeases the 2 eh company even more.
Yes we can try and rely on the ever increasing price of btc but that just hasn't happend recently, the difficulty has continued to increase but the price has gone down. Also of it just goes up then people will go for the bigger miners which again is what we have seen.
Argo will get bought out or merged. They have moved too slow and the whole quarters and years nonsense just damages the company.
@James
"Chuz, you talk like it is a winner takes all market when it is very specifically the opposite."
I do not see how its the opposite..
If I miner increases its hashrate by a larger proportion than its rivals it will generate more BTC. The opposite is true.
I mine ETH personally, In the past 6-9 I have seen the quantity of ETH that I mine drop by around half. My equipment has remained stable but others have bought more kit online so the difficulty has increased. I now get considerably less ETH than I did 6-9 months ago.
That means I make less profit simples.
If the other miners significantly increase thier market share of the hashrate it pushes the difficulty up. If everyone increases and we don't we will generate less btc per month than we currently do.
"Am I the only one thinking that this Sphere 3d article makes ARB Mcap seem even cheaper?"
It makes me think that arb will get squeezed out of the game.. 3.7eh v 24eh.. + riots increase + mara.. Unless arb do something spectacular they will keep losing market share.
Slow and steady quarters and years will find them running in a race that's already be won.
The future for argo is a buy out by one of the big boys.
@flowerpot
Im thinking the future will be the merger of smaller miners and maybe just a few companies left in the game. It will become too expensive to get in on the act.
The constant need to grow and use more and more power will be the killer I think unless there was some other way of dealing with its huge resource requirement.
@poorinvestor
"Where as miners are at the early stage of their industry, the infrastructure is getting put in place,"
But there can never be enough infrastructure or enough machines the more there is the more you need, genius really.
My doomsday scenario is if the price of btc breaks to low and causes the miners or microstrategy to become distressed sellers, it's then just a helter skelter to the bottom.
Most concerning is if microstrategy is ever force to drop its btc I thi k it would be game over.
It's all in its infancy for sure, it's needs some robustness
@flowerpot
"Tlhe more reluctant they will become to sell their btc too, in my opinion"
Yea, I think most of the big miners might if been better off doing the microstrategy bit and just buying btc, I'd imagine the likes of riot have raised over a billion in its time, could of bought a lot of coin with that.