RE: DLI28 Nov 2020 09:06
morning dougie.as you say there are a number of areas where developments are expected in the medium and short term (also OTC hopefully to start in europe,early 2021, although how this may be impacted by covid and possible production issues is yet to be seen).i doubt if any single one would have the desired effect on the s/p although its possible i suppose that a combination might, but from the fortacin point of view i suspect the jury will remain out for some time.if we are brutally honest the real reason for the current depressed s/p is,imo,the virtual non existent take up of the product.even allowing for undoubted poor marketing and management, if the product was popular we would not be in this position.to what extent the otc switch will improve matters is a complete unknown and i doubt there will be any meaningful news on this front, in terms of sales, for some considerable time. we may have a small spike on news of first sales etc ,but surely any serious investors are going to want to see real substantial numbers before getting on board.the licence agreements re china were pretty muted in their effect so even if we had news in other areas i don't see it as adding another 80% or so. news re the FDA trials should help,but again are investors going to want to see some evidence of sales before committing? .personally i don't see any licence agreement being concluded re us before fda approval,l which is a long way off. i suppose someone might just want to get involved before approval, but if so regent would be negotiating from a position of weakness, so the terms would probably not be good.so for me the more likely trigger fora significant s/p increase is in the longevity area.i expect more acquisitions in this area next yea rend this might engender some significant investor interest in asia.the advantage of the DLI young ai app is that no regulatory approval is required so we are not going to be anguishing over p2/3 trials, although again there must be question marks over how popular such applications will be with consumers and i suspect the real value will lie in the areas of medical research and actuarial and insurance company use, where i suspect there may be very significant opportunities. just my musing and i know there are lots of other ways of looking at things.