Member Info for Terraplane

Abramovich doesn't live in Russia and hasn't lived there for many years. He is no fool and don't forget, he was around in the mad 90s when Russia was like the wild west so he knows how to protect himself. He is MAYBE selling some of his UK properties, but that's because he hasn't got a residency visa. He has Israeli citizenship as well as Russian, so he has a fairly safe haven to retreat to if neccessary. Israeli citizenship allows him to go pretty much anywhere he pleases. There is nothing he can do to stop the war or the collapse of Evraz SP. This is a very high risk share on the face of it, not because the company is in trouble but simply because anything remotely connected with Russia is toxic and sentiment is driving the market. I cannot see Evraz seeking a Moscow listing, it simply doesn't make sense and it would expose the company to far greater uncertainty and possible sanctions.

Russia gets arms from China and other countries. Should we consider that China also invaded Ukraine by proxy?
Talking IS the only way out but Putin isn't very talkative at the best of times so I don't envisage any meaningful talking yet.
The Russians want to get control of Kyiv before they'll sit down for a chat, by which time it will be over.

Sentiment is driving the price down. It seems that anything connected with Russia is seen as poisonous. These shares are being given away.
Currently 110 on HL. Almost penny share status.

The fool is indeed a fool if he thinks EVR will move their listing to Moscow. Roman is no fool and he knows London is the only place to list EVR. It is not a Russian company and they have interests in many places outside Russia. Listing it in Russia would be a dangerous gambit, especially when the present situation has passed. By the end of 2022 this share will either recover and be flying or it will be a dead dog. There is a great deal of value here but do you have the cojones to hold? It's a very high risk share but I'm going to hold on in the hope that brighter days will eventually come. As long as the divis are paid I'm happy.

HL is allowing buys too.

You could always make a charitable donation to salve your guilt...
Good luck, that's a big bet you've got in play and it could go either way at the moment.

He's got a lot to lose and I'm not just talking about money.
If he goes down, we all go with him.

I also hope Bernie tells them to do one, but this kind of gesture politics is only to be expected in the current situation. When the smoke clears in a week or two we will see what the Russians want and what they are prepared to do, It's clear that Putin cares not that his nation is now the world's pariah state and he is hell bent on taking Ukraine back into the fold. A stooge president will be installed who will be another Lukashenko, thus Ukraine and Belarus become buffers between NATO and Russia. This has been the plan for years. As for Russian energy, the world still needs it so Boris and Biden are a bit stuck.

I use HL and the Divi is paid in sterling.
I assume that other brokers also pay in sterling.

I would imagine that any Russian billionaire has already moved their money elsewhere. As for property, most of it is held by offshore shell companies, so not easy to confiscate. As for where the law sits on this, I reiterate my previous statement: The Russians have no rules.
I think BP will weather the storm but as to how much value they lose, how long is a piece of string?
Could be a good long term buy if you have the minerals. Me? I'm holding.

"If Russian government didn’t want BP part of Rosneft it would not have happened"
Precisely why it happened and precisely why you should not be surprised if the Russians decide that BP are no longer welcome.
As I said, do not underestimate the lengths the Russians will go to. They have no rules. If you have ever lived in Russia you will understand, if you haven't you won't.
The evidence is there before you, look at the news.

In 2003 BP merged with TNK and Sidanko to create TNK-BP. There were other Russian investors on board, including Alfa. In 2008 disputes began ostensibly because it was felt by the Russians that BP were treating the deal as a subsidiary, not a joint venture. This was the smokescreen behind which the plan to push BP out was being orchestrated. Bob Dudley got out alive, but only just. The year is correct.

Speaking as someone with very close ties to Russia I can say that Buffa has understood the situation quite well. Understanding the Russian mindset is crucial to understanding events, both current and future.
If anyone believes that Russia will not use oil and gas as weapons then they are fooling themselves. Regardless of international law blah, blah, blah, Russia will do whatever it feels is in their interest and gives them leverage and power. BP's interest in Russian oil can easily be taken from them, it has been done before. In 2008 the TNK-BP joint venture foundered, supposedly because of disputes between shareholders. In actual fact the Russian government wanted more control and thus profit from their oil and decided that BP was no longer required. It was easy and it was quick. So be warned, nothing is off the table when dealing with Russia. I'm holding on to my BP for the long term but an attempt by Russia to take over BP's share of Rosneft would not suprise me. I'm also sitting on a small-ish, currently worthless tranche of EVRAZ which may also end up in Russian hands, so I think any investment with Russian links should be approached with extreme caution. Do not under estimate Russia or what it is prepared to do to win any fight.

EmeraldCarrots, it is foolish to speak about things about which you have no understanding or knowledge. As the saying goes: It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.
You clearly know nothing about Russia.

the buybacks have had almost zero uplift on the SP, which doesn't suprise me at all. I have yet to see a buyback that has had a significant beneficial effect on a company's SP. The BP SP is going nowhere until the divi is significantly increased but Looney appears to be intransigent on this. With so much cash flooding into the company, and the fact that so many pension schemes and investment houses hold these shares for income, the divi needs to uplift soon. On another point, at some time this year the price of oil will fall back to the $60-$70 level and when it does how will this affect the SP?

Which post Theaky, there's been a deluge of 'em today

Exactly my point. Given the profit margins and cash mountain the divi should be back to pre-covid levels.

Looney's intransigence about increasing divi is not helping, this share should be £5+ given the oil price, petrol price, enormous profit, reduced debt and buybacks.

Sinking like a stone and no chance of a recovery.
The demerger of RASP and the manner in which it will be carried out has killed Evraz shares for the forseeable future.
Time to bail.

If you hold EVRAZ in HG this is what is going to happen:
"Only shareholders able to trade and settle shares in Russia will be issued with the RASP shares, all other shareholders will automatically get cash instead.
As we are unable to hold and trade Russian shares, you’ll receive cash in place of your RASP shares. It’s expected that the
shares will be sold on your behalf by 6 October 2022 and the cash paid to you by 4 November 2022.'
As we are not able to trade and settle Russian shares, you will automatically receive a cash payment instead. As the shares will be sold on 6 October 2022 on a live market, we're unable to confirm the amount you'll receive until 4 November 2022."

So the choice is either wait until October for your cash or sell up.

What a way to treat shareholders.