Member Info for tennents

Rich

I was expecting Qube to close here immediately after they closed their similar position in Ceres. Had they done so they would have had a profit before expenses of just over £1m.

That they did not is curious, and has been very expensive. Why? I have no idea.

Wig

I cannot find any material that identifies the manufacturer of the original 10MW electrolyser (which has just come into service). For some reason OMV have not disclosed it, but it would seem reasonable to assume the large-scale upgrade would go to the same firm

Foodforthought

Trump backed off the USA wind farm when he was told it would cost a couple of thousand jobs. He has form for this from his first term in office. What he has now done is kill any project that is not yet in progress, and would therefore lead to job losses in manufacturing or construction. Much more importantly, his current bill kills any subsidy to green hydrogen production, so vaporising most other business cases at this time.

On the Qube short, the current average is 0.4234p for 5,062,442 shares, and a 1p move is worth £42.3k.

Their realised profit to date is £249k.

At 50p, their unrealised position is a £388k loss, and their share buyback cost is £ 2.53 M.

Add to this the (relatively high) borrowing interest to the sharebroker.

So they are well underwater already.

When they exited their position in Ceres in March, Qube closed the whole position in one move. On that basis, I would expect them to do that here, and they may have already been accumulating shares as a hedge. As they only have 5m to buy, that would have been doable at recent volumes.

Helikon is a whole other barrel of fish! (see my posting history from last Saturday on that one).

As it is Saturday - a few musings.

I have tracked and commented on the Helikon and Qube shorts a few times. Here is another that I found interesting.

As we know, the ITM price hovered around a low of 26p for a couple of weeks and is now (say) 46p. While that means the nominal 'profit' on the short has reduced, it also means that the cost of buying back the shorted shares has increased. Both impact the actual profit on the short, all excluding the share borrowing fees (not small). So what might that look like?

Current Helikon average cost/share £1.30

17,951,276 shares

@26p 'margin' £18,669k

Buyback £ 4,667k

Profit £14,001k

@46p 'margin' £15,078k

Buyback £ 8,257k

Profit £ 6,821k

What accountants would call a 'material difference' - so what is their strategy? I have no idea. Perhaps they have already bought some or all of the 18m shares, so are they fully hedged? BUT they are still paying chunky fees on shares borrowed a considerable time ago, and if fully hedged are incurring costs for no additional profit. Or perhaps there is some other fancy options device at play - but that would also be expensive. Perhaps the oft quoted theory of them being 'stuck' in low trading volumes carries some weight? I have no idea, but it is very interesting to watch as the tide of orders for ITM kit keeps on rising.

2phevs

Interesting find. ITM were invited to propose how they would establish electrolyser manufacturing in Western Australia by the Western Australia government. RNS was October 2022, but no further mention of it since.

But it does mean ITM were/are on their radar.

Fox weasel

Comparisons with Ceres are not really useful or meaningful. The reason is that the Ceres SOEC electrolyser design requires an input of continuous high temperature waste heat, circa 600-650 degrees centigrade to operate. That is why Shell are interested. They want to put the Ceres kit inside a refinery as part of the refining process, using their waste heat in the SOEC to produce hydrogen that is then used in the refining process. This allows the refinery to displace, and then stop using, steam reforming to produce ‘grey’ hydrogen which also has a massive carbon dioxide output, allowing Shell to ‘green’ their refineries and reduce costs.

SOEC electrolysers are by far the most efficient means of producing green hydrogen BUT, you need a continuous supply of which temperature waste heat. So not meaningfully comparable with PEM, alkali or anything else.

Increase in ITM price.

29% in a week

60% in a month

29% year to date

Have a good weekend all.

Balanced 66

Someone else learning that this game is harder than it looks.

Fortesque and McPhy in just one week.

Friday fingers and three lager incompetence, but all Buys.

Some very very big numbers in UT and after time trades. All Buys.

Have a good weekend and an interesting Monday.

Indeed Laurie. Note also this announcement is in the same week that Fortesque is mothballing their 2GW electrolyser factory in Australia due to lack of demand. It seems their (own design) PEM is not actually suitable for use in their mining operations as per the original plan.

Someone else learning that this game is harder than it looks.

It is worth noting that Dennis posted on this site several times in his first 12-18 months in the job.

No surprise that he sanctioned his IR guy to use it. They might both be very surprised, and disappointed, at the response here in the last few days. I know I am.

Smokin

Excellent news. A power station and the Shell test for use in refineries are two high value and good volume applications for SOEC. I am sure we will see further developments in glass making, ceramics and steel/metal- making.

Turning waste heat into re-usable energy is as close as you get to 21st century alchemy. Big corporates will pay serious money for that.

Doosan agreement pre-dates our SOEC product, but that would be an easy adjustment if Doosan wanted it.

JW. It is not a contract announcement, hence no RNS.

When the agreement announced produces a specification for the equipment to be ordered, there will be a contract and an RNS.

IKFA. I think they have to notify when the short is closed. They could be buying an accumulation with the purpose of closing the whole short in one stage. If they were to try ‘drip-feeding’ their reductions the price would soar in very short order and cost them a hell of a lot more.

Read our newbie’s posting history . . . . before wasting any of your time replying.

A huge number of AT trades. Someone switched their computer setting to vacuuming up CWR. Not an accident.

Spectator. The missing word!

Wookie

Not much Ceres can say. The shares belong to Bosch and it is their call when and to whom they sell them. I am sure the share price is also an issue for Bosch. They have lost a fortune in the investments in creating and the costs in shutting down this business. They may be holding on till there is some further revaluation here, say £1 - £1.50, giving them a slightly better ‘salvage’ price.

Some of our recent Asian partners may be in the market for some Bosch CWR shares, but they will want them as cheaply as possible. A stand -off in which Ceres is a, rather than a player.