Member Info for tennents

Bilbo

Stock borrowers are charged a 'borrow fee' interest rate. This can vary pretty widely depending on share liquidity, market, broker policies and prevailing interest rates. I have seen figures quoted from 0.025% to over 20%. The Interactive Brokers website quotes a benchmark rate of £ Sterling at 2.208%.

The current average value of today's Helikon holding is £ 23,336,232, giving an annual change (done daily at £X / 365) of £ 515,264. Standard broker trading fees for each transaction are also applicable, though Helikon may have a 'no trading fee' agreement with their broker. If ITM was paying dividends, the shorter would also be expected to pay the owner the £ value of those dividends.

Shorting is not cheap.

i see a couple of references to our shorts. after some previous ‘*** packet’ calculations, i built spreadsheets for both helikon and qube. some interesting results: i have made no allowances for any of their expenses. first helikon.

transactions 47

increase 35

decrease 12

01/10/21 - 11/11/21 6 increases 5,506,582 @ avg £4.1750

16/11/21 – 21/02/22 6 reductions profit of £3,731,675

26/10/22 – 20/06/23 17 increases 15,481,556 @ avg £0.8871

06/10/23 – 01/11/23 7 reductions profit of £2,571,904

hence total profit realised £6,303,579.

13/2/25 1 increase 1,418,829 @£0.5822

this brings us to the current status of 17,951,276 @ avg £1.3000.

therefore at our (as i type) price of £0.3296 gives an unrealised profit of £17,419,492.

their short is worth £178,803 per £0.01p.

so yesterday’s drop of 1.50p added £268,204 to the helikon ‘pot’ (unrealised of course).

qube

transactions 12

increase 7

decrease 5

profits (net) realised to date £267,014

unrealised profit at £0.3296 price £625,100

current status 3,951,174 @ avg £0.4878

total itm shares shorted at this time 21,370,666.

which, at our current average shares traded of 2.7m, assume 50% buys/sells= 1.35m per day.

full redemption would be all shares purchased for 15.8 days.

so, nobody will notice that at all……….

so there lies our shorter problem. if we are at or close to the bottom. qube need to get out fast and

helikon start to see £17.4m evaporate.

they are not going to want that, so what happens next?

Nettles

The condoms went to a place called Gaza, in Mozambique, as part of a long-standing anti -AIDS programme.

When the legend sounds better than the truth, print the legend.

If, and it is a big if, UK govt has any smarts, they will announce RR as confirmed first SMR in the UK, and leave the second slot ‘open pending ongoing technical assessment of the other bidders’. Leave a door, but also the possibility that it might not be open.

Bloody hell. It is like listening to JD Vance in Munich last week. An alternate reality in what ‘free speech’ means.

It does not means the same person coming back again and again repeating the same nonsense. That is not free speech, that is a mental disorder.

At 14.30 today we have

820k shares bought

69k shares sold

And we are down?

Vamosbien

It is very poor form to copy another poster's work from another site (ADVFN) without acknowledging their work. What kind of school/college did you attend?

I am also curious why you removed my disclaimer paragraph from the end.

Here it is :

Disclaimer: I am not a qualified accountant, but I have worked in contract engineering. So, if any accountants on this board want to comment, feel free.

So, any accountants here please feel free.

There are a growing number of credibe and genuine news reports about the decline in Tesla car sales numbers since his emergence as co-president of the USA. I have seen material on this from Germany, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand and California. More to come on this one I think.

the tesla story originates from an online publication from a usa based specialist metals technical association.

the author cites another indian article as the source.

the source article was written by the same author.......who runs a motercyle business in india.

serious *******s. apply some critical thinking. if tesla was going to build a hydrogen car it would have been on the front page of every mainstream meda outlet in the world.

Getting poured on in great dollops this morning.

You can smell their fear.

The final paragrahs

All three are thinly traded, closely watched by their various followers and will continue to experience a period of shorter resistance to any small increases. After that, and assuming each get sustainably good news, there will be a huge short squeeze as they are forced to capitulate with what they can get off the table super quickly.

Current ‘notional’ profits are:

CWR £1m Qube

AFC £585k Helikon

ITM £14.5m Helikon

How much (or little) of that they ever get to collect will be interesting to see

Spicy Tuna

Concerning our shorter Qube

I have just done some interesting arithmetic on their short position.

They currently have 3,951,174 shares shorted.

Their average purchase price is £0.3639

Since they emerged on October 24, they have had 12 transactions in their short 4 decreases and 8 increases. To date they have taken profits totalling £21,441 (excluding any costs they have incurred).

At a current price of £0.37 they have a notional profit of £24k.

At a price of £.50 that becomes a notional loss of £538k.

My analysis – They have come very late to ITM, they were is Ceres from June 23. They started in October 24 immediately before the Trump election victory, so perhaps they thought that would throw all green manufacturers into a downward spiral. It did not. Their recent increases have made very tiny reductions in their average – I think they are in a mental squeeze somewhere between sunk costs and the golden rule of holes.

So, to date they have made a very small profit and they very, very are close to the edge of a big loss. They have to buy back 3,951,174 shares in a now very thinly traded company which, unfortunately for them has Helikon as a shorter that has to buy back 16,586,046 shares. Current ITM average daily shares traded is 1,222,000. So whichever of them blinks first starts a massive short squeeze. Helikon has more margin as they currently have a notional profit of circa £14.5m. Cube…….

For your interest I did this for Ceres and AFC (another Helikon short) yesterday. Below is what I posted on the Ceres page.

I have just done some interesting arithmetic on their short position.

They currently have 1,723,925 shares shorted.

Their average purchase price is £2.084

Since they emerged on June 23, they have had 41 transactions in their short 19 decreases and 21 increases. To ate they have taken profits (and a few losses) totalling almost exactly £1m.

At a current price of £1.50 they have a notional profit of £1m.

At a price of £2.50 that becomes a notional loss of £716k.

Breakeven is about £2.084

This explains much about our current/recent share movements. Every time we start to rise some ‘sell’ sauce gets poured on. Their problem now is that, in this very thinly traded share, any sustainably good news and an associated price rise will screw them royally.

I did some comparable arithmetic on both ITM and AFC short positions. ITM is also a very thinly traded share. ITM has made transformational improvements and they are getting orders. AFC is also very thinly traded, but its transition from R&D to scale production is less clear at the moment, but their new CEO is doing a first presentation tomorrow, so should cast some more light on how much of the previous guy’s promises and what is actually going to be delivered.

All three benefit for the idea of Trump ‘destroying’ global green industries now being seen as nonsense outside of the USA.

All three are thinly traded, close

Spicy tuna

My post on 4 feb 16.18 explains clearly why Helikon are still here.

They were greedy and did not get out when the getting was good and very profitable. Noe the tide has turned and they are left hoping for a miracle that will prevent a very large chunk of their current notional profit of £14.5m evaporating before their eyes.

Big oil, Ukraine etc have nothing to do with their predicament and eventual capitulation.

Unplugged

Cheers - It is only a matter of time before the shorters capitulate. They are between a rock and a rising tide - no way out.

Bewatchful

Thanks - you are correct and I made an error in the spreadsheet. Corrected figures are

1,007,136 @ 1.50

-716,788 @ 2.50

The ITM and AFC figures are correct.

I have just done some interesting arithmetic on their short position.

They currently have 1,723,925 shares shorted.

Their average purchase price is £2.084

Since they emerged on June 23, they have had 41 transactions in their short 19 decreases and 21 increases. To ate they have taken profits (and a few losses) totalling almost exactly £1m.

At a current price of £1.50 they have a notional profit of £10.1m.

At a price of £2.50 that becomes a notional loss of £7.2m.

Breakeven is about £2.084

This explains much about our current/recent share movements. Every time we start to rise some ‘sell’ sauce gets poured on. Their problem now is that, in this very thinly traded share, any sustainably good news and an associated price rise will screw them royally.

I did some comparable arithmetic on both ITM and AFC short positions. ITM is also a very thinly traded share. ITM has made transformational improvements and they are getting orders. AFC is also very thinly traded, but its transition from R&D to scale production is less clear at the moment, but their new CEO is doing a first presentation tomorrow, so should cast some more light on how much of the previous guy’s promises and what is actually going to be delivered.

All three benefit for the idea of Trump ‘destroying’ global green industries now being seen as nonsense outside of the USA.

All three are thinly traded, closely watched by their various followers and will continue to experience a period of shorter resistance to any small increases. After that, and assuming each get sustainably good news, there will be a huge short squeeze as they are forced to capitulate with what they can get off the table super quickly.

Current ‘notional’ profits are:

CWR £10.1m Qube

AFC £585k Helikon

ITM £14.5m Helikon

How much (or little) of that they ever get to collect from the flames will be very interesting to watch.

Fair enough comments for AFC, not so for ITM. They are never going to see anything like the notional £14m profit there.

Realitychap

I have not included any of their costs in setting up and maintaining their shorts. So you are correct, my calculations are ‘before operating costs’.

It is not a pretty picture. I think they were making so much on ITM that they thought AFC would be another little goldmine. However they were way too late in opening AFC. They were also way too late in closing and taking the money in both AFC and ITM.. Their ‘profits’ are going to be a lot smaller now, guess that is what greed gets you.

I have just done some interesting arithmetic on their short position.

They currently have 26,570,528 shares shorted.

Their average purchase price is 11.20p

At 9p they have a notional profit of £585k, less the £40k loss they incurred 13 June 24.

At 10.2p things get a lot less attractive - to the tune of £265k less profit.

I believe this explains much about our current/recent share movements. Evry time we start to rise some ‘sell’ sauce gets poured on. Their problem now is that, in this very thinly traded share, any sustainably good news will screw them royally.

I did some comparable arithmetic on their ITM position. They have reduced shorts twice and made £6m. At the current ITM price they have a notional profit of £14m.

However, ITM is also a very thinly traded share. ITM has made transformational improvements and they are getting orders. In addition the idea that Trump would ‘destroy’ global green industries is demonstrably nonsense outside of the USA.

Any idea that Helikon’s ITM profits would cover any losses in AFC is in very thin ice. ITM will at some stage have an extreme short squeeze as they try to reduce their position and it will get jumped on hard.

So what will they do here?

Alpha

I meant that Ceres will never manufacture in the USA - it will only happen if we get a license partner.

The big issue for SOFC in the USA is the explosion in demand for mega data-centre capacity. You may be aware tehat the USA does not have a 'national grid' hence access to very substantial power supply is a critical location issue for these investments. You may have seen in teh press announcement about people looking to re-commission old nuclear plants like Three Mile Island, others are talking about Small Modular Reactors. However they cannot be done quickly.

What can be done quickly is SOFC burning natural gas (the USA is well resourced with gas fields and gas pipelines).

Bloom Energy, probably our major SOFC competitor has already announced a huge order to do exactly that (have a look at their website - very interesting).

Hence - why I think a licensor in the USA has become a higher probability. Politically, Trunp is anti-Green so anyone wanting to use domestic gas will be seen as 'good behaviour'. While he will not get a second term (well thats what the law says) I think it unlikely the Democrats will win 4 years from now so there will be no sudden reversal, so no sudden reversal. Even if there was the fuel cells can use hydrogen.

On SOEC - very definately scope as the USA has a huge petrochem (and other relevent) sectors where our units sit inside the plant and take excess high temperature process heat to create hydrogen. to feed directly into creating the high temperature process heat. Closest thing to alchemy you will find. That may need a different partner who has expertise in mega petrochem plant design and construction - but I am sure they exist.

Very good grounds to be highly optimistic on both counts.

I have spent a while looking at our Helikon short and doing some spreadsheet/arithmetic (with a couple of minor but reasonable assumptions).

Helikon have had two periods each of increasing and then reducing their shorts.

First - They started in the £4-5, and closed at £2.5 Profit of £4m

Second - they added in 80/90/100p and closed 66-70p Profit of £2m

So far so good.

Their current, substantial, position is at something like £1.25 average per share. At 35p that would be a profit of circa £14.5m.

So near.....but so very, very, very far.

Their substantial purchases, in our very lightly traded share, would of course detonate the share price and blow away their 'profits'.

So what are they going to do?

1. Well they could 'sit on their hands' - but ITM has turned a corner and our market is genuinly coming to life - the tide has turned and is rising (remember King Canute?).

2. They could continue as they are and pour 'sells' onto any rise after announcements - tackles a short term issue but not the bigger and longer term problem.

3. They could look to buy up as much as possible on dark pools etc (assuming of course our very lightly traded share is held in dark pools) - and hope to get a chunk of good money before the squeeze comes on.

3. They could put their fingers in their ears and sing la la la in very loud voice and hope that scares everyone else away.

4. They could just suck it up and start closing small amounts at a time - which of course will have to be announced so everyone will see it - which pretty quickly takes us back to (2) and the short squeeze.

Oh well, poor wee things.