RE: ITM15 Nov 2024 11:34
SA1986 – a few thoughts.
Trump is unpredictable. However, he will not shut down the existing factories, e.g., PLUG and H2 production facilities already operating in the USA. Killing manufacturing jobs is the opposite of what he says he will do. He has now announced he will cut tax breaks on EVs, and Musk is cool with this because Trump had said he would put tariffs on all Chinese EVS, including those manufactured in Mexico.
I do not see this as an issue for ITM, as we have no material presence there anyway. Trump's climate change model says there isn't any. That means USA producers of electrolysers, etc., will have no significant domestic market, will fall behind in scale and technology, or will leave the USA.
Trump will do something on tariffs—because he has said it endlessly—which would potentially be unhelpful for us in the medium term. However, if he does that for the EU/UK, they will retaliate, making life harder for, e.g., PLUG and easier for European manufacturers like ITM. The 'America first' tariffs drive has the scope for large-scale disruption in Asia, Australia, and Europe, so the ripples could be large and wide-ranging and not at all beneficial for USA companies seeking to export.
The critical market driver in Europe is the replacement for Russian gas, and the political priority is never to be at such a high level of dependence and risk again. Addressing climate change at the same time is a very helpful collateral benefit. Europe is the fastest-moving market at the moment because it does not have any choice. Hence, that is the ITM's primary focus because large-scale plants will be planned and built, because there is no choice. Europe has the benefit of having a range of domestic manufacturers and a political willingness for them not to be swamped by Chinese kit that would destroy the European industry.
Similarly, Korea and Japan urgently need alternative energy sources—being carbon-free is a 'very good to have' benefit. Perhaps more challenging is for the ‘want to be’ major exporters, such as Australia, where large projects keep collapsing for lack of confirmed off-take customers. But that will change over time.
In the meantime, ITM's building up its presence in Germany is excellent as it adds an EU component to the total cost of manufacture, which will be essential in avoiding EU restrictions or tariffs. We are on the right track; it is slower than anyone would have liked. However, we are in the right place, with the right technology, and employ loads of people who speak the ‘right’ languages. MAGA Trump will impact none of this.