Member Info for Techtonic

B&B..

I was in N4P before the "Viagra" hype..

I wasn't in ITM Power - I had it on my watch list, then forgot..DOH! (That basically 70-bagged!)

Wasn't in Novacyt either - exceptional circumstances due to covid.

But just using those two as examples of huge variations of Market sentiment and valuation.

The one common factor of all those shares listed is the share graph looks like a mountain... It goes to a peak, and then down she comes. Very typical.

If there's just one lesson to be learned from it all...it's

TAKE A PROFIT while you can. Leave some in for sure, but it's a risky game prejudging events.

Pps forgive me hogging the board and was not bragging about previous shares, just trying to give examples where patience (although sometimes nerve-wracking) pays off.

And a good recent example of the problems of Market Valuation can be seen in our sphere with OBD...

Should the market have valued it at £80 million?

I'm sure a couple of weeks ago most people would be saying it should be valued at £200 million.

But it turns out the true value is now circa £30 million.

The market is reactive..

What happens if (unlikely) Ciz test fails mass scaling-up, then should we be half our present value? It's an impossible game and the Market deals with news - but then investor momentum takes it to places it shouldn't

Ps BeersandBulls (I mean Bears and Bulls ;o))

I don't know what you were drinking last night - but I'll have a few tonight! (hic)

Ps forgive typos / clunky paragraphs etc in my posts. Use mobile phone. It's doing my head in!

Disagree that this would be flying in a different market

The Market has no way of valuing this test until it is proven in the public domain.

The may be big "potential" but the market needs to see this realized.

The market never values these type of shares in "what could be terms"..

Great examples where I've made quite a bit of profit in the past but the share are stayed at this kind of base level for months/years before news.

N4P

NFX

EQT

Oxus Gold

Piers investments

Etc

They all had "potential" and stayed at the same level for ages before 6 to 8 bagging.

I could also quote ITM - they did a novacyt and 50 bagged! But they stayed at their base level for ages before meteoric rises.

But just think if the market value CIZ at 6 times MC now..

ALL those shares fell back to base level (further even or nearly back down)

So how is the market to truly value "potential"? It can't. So we are where we are - until news.

Yes, volume 1.4 million

Unremarkable.

But the bar chart at the bottom shows about 10 times that volume..hmm

It's probably a glitch unless there's going to be some very late (delayed) trades come through

Sorry everyone this is just a stand alone question out of my own personal interest.

I didn't notice any particularly large trades yesterday ..

But looking on trading view now we have the biggest volume day since September 21st last year.

Is that an error on trading view or did some late (or undisclosed) trades to go through?

Thanks

V V...

As far as I'm concerned I think it's fantastic that you feel able to ask any question you want.

That's what these boards are about and I'm learning so much too because I've only been in this share for about three months.

Some very informative posters on here.

Cheers for responses. OAPk20 Yes, I would think it's extremely likely that OBD need quite a heavy fundraise soon.

By the way, I'm just looking at the chart from yesterday and it appears there was a relatively high volume blip.

I can't see the trades from yesterday. Does anyone know if there were some big buys or sells going through?

V V. thanks for your interesting contribution; you touch on some of the worries that I have.

While everyone is getting wrapped in automatically assuming "tens of millions of Chinese/US lung cancer tests a year", they don't look at the potential pitfalls and stumbling blocks - both from medical professionals (psychologically and efficacy-Skeptical) , and those funding the costs of tests.

This is the pertinent part from OBD's Forum today:

" we chose to chase the US market because the existing LDT regulations open the door to selling into the private medical market. Perhaps he saw this as a way to gain a toe hold whilst avoiding the cost and time imitations of large scale trials."

Will Ciz face similar kickback?

It's a highly relevant question.

The big advantage we have is that our sales / PR team will be massive compared. But it isn't going to be as easy as some assume imo.

Fair points and I know that you're in the high estimates category, Jace86.

First of all it's worth remembering that our test has not been proven on scale yet..

But let's assume we are in business, a few points:

1) China will not care whether it's Bosch or the King of England. (They are dogmatic and don't care)

2) if the sales are at the high end, with time , the price of each unit will come down and other tests (from other companies) will also creep into the market and the market will force prices down.

Big pluses... If we can do this soon enough with first mover advantage and get into USA soon then Europe/NHS AND get a lateral flow test out there, then....yes..who knows

But, unknown external factors, who's out there with what tests (in the next few years. - are impossible to factor in... But there are always Black swan events with these things somewhere along the line)

I'm adding I to this something that is not company specific (my own experience of seeing PIs overvalue potential )

I said £100mill+

My ballpark figure is probably somewhere around OAPK20s £100 -£175mill is (and this goes on biotechnie previous deals and others that seem to involve future sales in the mix)

The future price is just so speculative, it could fall flat on its face or go the moon, but somehow I think a deal will be struck early-ish and AS, York Uni, Yorkshire Cancer, Dr Coverley ey al will be happy as scientists with a game changing product, and millionaires with share deals.

And it's just my personal view but I think that will be somewhere over £100 million, but not too far above.

I would be extremely happy to be proved wrong to the upside!

It is, indeed, guesswork Option..

My two penneth, having seen hoards of PIs froth at the mouth at speculative future values of hypotheticals is that reality usually bites hard.

All these future valuations of $billions seem to operate in a bubble..

They forward project income and importance of test in a vacuum....

A vacuum that doesn't take account of:

1) China will not play fair. They may do at the start but there's no way they will continue without filching the

tech, or simply not paying up.

2) this is all time sensitive with other companies vying for the same market space. Time doesn't wait for Ciz to complete the process of other cancer tests.

3) the number of tests probably will not be at the maximum potential levels people are hoping for

4) if the company and its proprietors are offered a reasonable risk/ reward cash offer - they will probably take it at circa £100+ million and a share of future sales.

Although this may seem low, it balances the risk of future hiccups. (A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and all that)

Personally I would be extremely happy with a 100 million pound valuation.

Others on here "expect" more...

But from life experience, expectation can lead to an awful lot of tears.

Unless I'm reading between the lines incorrectly, OAPK20 is just throwing high random BO figures into the air in a disdainful riposte to XYZ (whom he is rather underwhelmed with!)..

OAP?..

OBD (Prostate cancer test) today suffering 25% fall due to making a whopping £10Mill loss.

This provides a great comparator for our respective business models.

OBD has great science and a superb test but they are doing all the leg work and funding themselves.

Ciz seem to have great science (soon to be proven on a mass scale, hopefully) but carries none of the baggage of in-house majority funding.

By outsourcing to our partners for a % it means we steer clear of the business cash pitfalls.

Some great posts tonight, thanks to everyone.

Fastfood - I look forward to your musings next month.

SorostheGreat - I see no reason at all why Ciz would list on Nasdaq.

They now have a much bigger brother listed in the US (Bio-Techne) with a market cap of circa $ 11Billion.

Biotechne will simply gobble up Ciz..

The question is, at what price?

Ps I'm sceptical that these early and late big trades are PIs. I think there are market maker shenanigans going on to make a market..as they do

I've been in lots of these small cap (waiting for an 'event' ) shares over the years; they always bobble around within

parameters before the big news event.

This share price oscillation will continue IMO until news. There's nothing to keep it up and buyers will always come in when they sniff a bargain.

(BTW like Brondby I favour selling a few CDT shares. Dilution at this level makes no sense to me to me.

Generally - mathematically, say if Ciz needed another £300K from any dilutative fundraise that would be a dilution of 4% on MC of £7 million.

That means - if as we all hope - if Ciz hit a market cap of £100Mill, that would knock £4Mill off the values, whereas selling £300K CDT shares at a 50% "loss" incurs no Market Cap sanction to Ciz.

Dilution makes no sense with the CDT shares at hand.

Group of traders got in for a quick buck?

MM games?

Sniff of news?

Witch (geddit?) school was that Hogbog, Hogwarts?

If someone went to the same school as me I trust them less: o))

Hi Oak, Thanks

XYZ

Just interested in the psychology of how people pick pre-defined Diary dates like Easter/ Christmas etc for randomly occuring and unrelated news events.

I'm expecting something to drop anytime now - and into the next few weeks.

Before Easter, Mayday and next Christmas ;o)