RE: ENQ's 2021, 2021 World Oil Production & Consumption, Stocks (part I)10 Dec 2020 11:41
Hey!
L3,
The price of Krak oil is a guess where it is likely that a division will be made where both buyers and sellers win the deal.
During -21, I expect that the premium will increase depending on two things:
During the pandemic, the ingenuity of using aviation fuel as a blend, etc. for a short period, has pushed down VLSFO prices, but without much success.
2. Scrubbers with systems that release residues into the sea are heavily criticized and are on the EU's agenda for a ban.
Those who drive with a closed system get a lot of corrosive substances to be destroyed and some ports do not accept the waste.
This year's premium looks to land at about 10% for Kraken.
Tapis (Malaysia) looks set to end with a total, but scarce, premium for the year.
If the year ends with a discount of 1.5 $ against Brent, it will be 1.00, but the trend is towards premiums.
However, it is not premium or discount that is important but totally paid and it looks bright through the increase on Brent.
Stock pulls will be greater in Q1 as the pandemic dampened some demand in Q4.
The reason for this is the relentless decline.
For US where the rate of decline in 1 (normal) year is: Texas 40%, ND (Bakken) 52%, Oklahoma 50%, GOM / deepwater 32% and New Mexico 45%, it is the drill or sink that applies ... - the regions is 80% of US production.
Normal decline for a quarter is about 1.75m in the world (which is roughly equivalent to what was added from Libya).
This year is not a normal decline!
Therefore, I am not afraid of players increasing as it only affects the total a little bit.
It is normal with warehouse construction in this time of year.
This year's decline has not been replaced and this trend will continue to next fall (imo).
ps/ what is TBC /ds
Regards / Kamrat
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