Member Info for Tarmak

Hi!

Romaron,
I´ll think you will/can have a comeback in your further invest (xcite) but it is a big maybe.
If anyone should get Bentley producing so is E in the best mode for that but that is just in my brain right now.
It is Whalsay who got the license right now but I don't think they have capacity (the old obligation-holders from Xcite).
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First about Bressay.
The viscosity of Kraken is between 78-161 and it is a moderately voscosity oil and for Bressay is it around 540.
Other producing fields with high viscosity is Captain (50-150), Mariner maureen and mariner Heimdal ( 67-508).
Bentley´s cp is 1500.

To be in the range of Hevy crude oil in the class of Alberta it shall be between 100cp - 10 000cp and after that it is tar sand and bitumen.
It is heavy oil but it flows!

I hope they use EP and also, after a time, try the old Bentley.
From April-25 is the dayrate for AK 139 860 and whith70,50% is the rate of year 35 989 475 ( now 115 114 853) so i think it whould be the best to keep it in work on Kraken to the bitter end.

Have a nice day.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Romaron,
You know and me also but People (or creature) use it to come in lower.

Only Permian need more than 2000 /y new wells to hold the production in line whith 2017.
For 2019 they ned more than 4000 /y.

It will also go down because of natural things ( it is mature) and after -25 will it be lower and lower.
They will never come back again.

Stocks will continue to fall during winter and as fast as demand rise, at the latest when spring is here, it will be our comeback.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L3,
I hope that this can the answer you want.
48,5 is just the differens between the posisitions.
31/12 -19 i had 28,6 in overlift (we had get prepaid ).
30/6 -20 i had 23,5 in underlift (produced but not paid oil).

My difference is 52,1 (48,5) and i dont know where i go wrong in that but the important in this is the 23,5m.
That is what we expect to use whith, maybe, another overlift to get enough money if it is nessesary.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

From what i understand there is are people who work with this.

I have worked over some decline-curves, at Kraken and Magnus, and i haven´t the right skills to finish it.
Magnus is easy but how to do the adjustments on Kraken is worse.

I have 2 diagrams whith it and in the last one i only moved K´s years 1 step backwards (because the late start and to easy-up the comparision.

I know that there are drillingpoints that will make the curves false but i will adjust in meantime.

My problem is that i dont want to post it open before they are more correct and i wonderer if anyone here got the skills and some speartime for it.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

I had a workover whith my files, that became necessary causedand by my shelf, and thats the reason why my numbers are a little bit different.

I also added "Komplett" and that i used erlier in -20 but i had to work more whith it.
There you can find prices from -20 and a forecast of -21 but remember that a forecast is just what it suggests but it points out a direction.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing

Some can think that my pricing of oil is high but that is what i belive in and i am low in the premiums and their way to comback is going ahed.

I will update about every week except if we go on any weekend-tripp, having holyday etc.

If anyone have any questions am i ready to answer them and if it is something to complain about it i will be happy to know.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Krakenoil,
Good name you have but you have to explain some of your wievs.

Why did they falling then the price was +55 (for wti)...

Why is the production at 11m and not +13 as it was...

In what way should that market became different than the rest there situations like this make company buy others because it is the cheepest way to grove (no drilling in that).
That also make decline faster caused by parts falling off in affairs.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

The rate for the world is around 7% and that gives us about 7m whith a production on 100m and a dayrate of 583 333 333.
For the shalers is it about 40% and whith a production on 11m 4,4m and a dayrate of 366 666 667.

OPEC+ want to put in 500 000 000 and i agree because that will set a pressure on them whith the largest decline.
Only a small part of the shalers should drill and only a small part of the decline whould be replaced.

366 666 667 is 73,33% of 500 000 000 and a big bit of that should they have to deal.

If OPEC not put in 500 000 000, the market (read shalers) have 583 333 333 reasons to drill.

I hope that OPEC put in 500 000 000 every mounth until the circomstenses are normalized and the declinerates will make that the prise will balanses anyway and it will be a small part over a day (583 333 333 - 500 000 000 = 83 333 333) for other.

There is a big wekness in my numbers and that is the declain numbers counted on a regular year.
They are bigger this year and that will make that it will be no problem on the long run.

The uncertainty in the market will be short-lived and set back as inventory pulls continue.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
Where do you got your numbers?
From the beginning the loan was 300 and 100 was paid in oct -18 from the funds recived trought the rights issue.

If it is a payback in five years it had to be 40/y or a arrangement around it who had declain it.
I be happy if anyone can explain this.
I hope you have right so i can take off another 20.
-----
Laidback, this is just about the BP details in the Magnus affair so just laidback.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
I have looked at my numbers and Magnus deal 2.
When i did it i maked it in two steps.
The first, Vendor, did i count to 46m (inc. 7,5%).

The second step, profit share, did i almost reach 85m and a total near 131m.
I´m sure that the interest expenses (6m) shall removes from that so i am landing on 125m to remove from FCF.

It is in my link in "uträkningar mm" at row 49.

I agree that parts of the loans will remain in a new version.
----
Romaron,
About HMH: i Called him mr forum and he is a big inspiration for me.
I´m not as wise but nice.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
Thanks for criticise my numbers.
I shall copy it and work it over and come back a bit in -21.

Have you read the RIProspectus side 293 about HY?
It must go away first but i think it is plenty of ways.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi,

That went wrong so i may use translate?
It will be the shalers from usa (us) who is falling!

Sorry/Kamrat

Hi,

2Januari,
The chains was lost erlier cause the hedge was a floorprice and it was only about 0,7m barrels.
Other things you write is right and mr market will be suprised how deep and long time us falling.
That will make the oilprice higher.
---
Roman,
You are right about that it changes all the time and that is why i dont try to make too long prospects but now the arrows are in the right direction and then it takes a lot to change it.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Jan,
That was one of the funniest thing i have seen.
Big one from me...
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Romaron,
You got the view and i think i also have it.
The last barrel on the market must have profit or else it dissapear whith decline and that line, as you can look like a floor, is propobly higher than 65.

I can see a company whith lower dept in a coupple of year whith x FCF and they share 60% of that (x * 60%) = share
That gives whith a value of 8% for the company : share/8%
Then i take the company value (V) and divid it whith stocks: V/1695801955
After that i have my case even IF i should belive in x=300 000 000.

What is your x?

You can look at the calcylation at row 267 in "uträkningar mm" in my link.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1h_a4jmSsXq2iypyHqoFXfo49pIZzmoid?usp=sharing
And save it for later use.

I look forward to the next update and, again, Happy new year everyone.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!
I can tell what i expect and that is an affair whith Exxon.
It will be a reason why Hall and Khan where headhunted.
They can Malaysia and Hall know NS after his time to startup Kraken.
I also think it will be a pot (under the rainbow) whith Money when they show the deal.
That is because it is a affair-date and the FCF thereafter is the owners.

This bride is not readdy for marriage yet.

L7,
Please look in my link in "uträkningar" at row 53.
I think you have wrong and i just want to be kind.

I want everybody to have a nice end and a happy new year

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

From April -25 it will be around 36m/y from 115m/y now.
It is a good deal to use for a while.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
When i saw your : (60 000 - (37,5% * 17 740)) * 96,2% = 51 320 bopd ... i taked 37,5% off from 17 740 like Gross.
The reason why i post this is only to correct what`s wrong or if i had misunderstand it.
I didn`t see the wrong in the first soo i have to work someting over.
However so are we agreed in this now.

If i not inside for a while i hope everybody a nice (and good) X-mas.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
I`m so bad at the language so it easier for me to show the numbers and why it´s logically wrong.
Because of that i use only The M numbers so it not will be hided.
I dont think the share start`s from 0 and the BE point whould be more right.

It is on top in "uträkningar mm" in my link.
I haven`t the ambition to get closed to the result YE, but i`m careful and want to understand it.

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

L7,
I have been thinking this over and have a question.
I copy that it is 50% of the 75%-part but it shall be from the net cash flow.
If it being cut from it all i think it is gross.
Am i right?

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Jan,
I`m in it for the long run so i be here a while.
About the 60p party: is it serious ore more playful?
-----
When it talks about hedges is our Premie, both in kraken and Malaysia, important advantage and should be in the count.
In my link have i example how to see the different in oil`s and their price but i dont show how i count and it was because it is easy to be wrong so look at it just as example.
During the virus it was more closely related to the Brent.
I have added the price in 20-ports, Rotterdam and the brent prise (at ship&bunker) and divided it to three and use 7,15 as a number to get it to barrels.
7,15 is just between VLSFO and Brent.

In that case the Premie will be 10% (Kraken) and +0% (Malaysia, oilprice)for the year.
How have your diskussions been about it?

Regards/Kamrat

Hi!

Pelle,
To use the "scared" way is not my way.
Why!
Booth supply and demand are under pressure (most demand).
The diffrenses betveen them was almost 4m (draw) last week (built 15m import 19m) in a season who use to built.

Normal decline is almost 600m each mounth and the situation in Q4 was not what i expected and it put demand forward.
It hides the usual decline but it shows when demand is back.
The diff. will be huge in that time and rise the prize so i hope they dont hedge more than they have to.

Sorry about my bad English and if people missunderstanding my intentions, i just want to be a friend /kamrat and it also why i show my numbers.

/Kamrat