Capex22 Feb 2021 13:08
Hi,
This is a message that I posted on the Swedish forum.
Hey!
I think it's interesting to speculate about what this year's capex will go to.
They themselves have stated that the incident at Seligi is an insurance case so it does not go there.
It is possible that certain costs that were not taken on maintenance last year can be included, but it does not take 120m to do so.
Should mean that there are drilling targets for the year when the drilling at GE is not included in the production plan.
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You do not need to get over 75 to already this year zero amounts corresponding to Sculptor, RCF, Vendor and SVT.
The amounts correspond to just over 160m in interest and repayments.
If my model goes to just over 68, it leaves for next year, with everything else being equal, over 700 in FCF.
If it was divided, 40/60, then the company would have (40%) 280m extra to spend on the budget for the development of the company and still have (60%) 420m to distribute.
This corresponds to a dividend of just over 2 Sek.
When you calculate the value, it looks ridiculously low in the current situation and the day that it is not to be amortized on loan but only balanced, the value becomes really high.
Should they start a large project, I think a dividend will be lower (initially) but an invested krona has the ability to multiply (and in the oil industry with this cost situation, quickly).
The year after a high expense, it no longer exists, but everything else being equal, you are back at the level of 2 sek.
That the oil price during the spring and autumn would be lower than now is not on the map.
This time, it is not only the natural causes that govern but the vaccine as well.
However, do not want to sign with higher forecasts than quite given.
Good luck everyone!
Regards / Comrade
L7,
I think Capex Is the favourite-word of the day (and that`s including drilling).
Regards/Kamrat