The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Eccles04 - There's a track record (not 1:1 correlation) that stocks like LGEN fall by the dividend amount a day or 2 after ex-div record date. Last 2 years, I've been cashing out the day before and bought back in some 30p lower...Hence I got an annual dividend and a bit more (after commission and SD).
Not fool-proof mind you.
Meconopsis - Sorry to hear about the SVB related incident....Been there, experienced that.....I'm up a little on a similar investement, only because I took a gamble and quadrupled my holding after my regional bank plundered some 75% in value....Hairy moment that....hopefully they're on stronger footing and any rate cuts will ease yields and therefore raise NIM.
Are insiders allowed to make discretionary purchases of SMT on the open market?
Lordloadsoflolly - " once again lies" How was I lying? I never denied what you added in my previous message.
"But the sooner SMT clears 810p & you sell out, the better as far as I'm concerned." - so who put you in charge of the board? Unless you're here to 'Raaa Raaa Raaa' the trust, you should not be admitted? Cleanse the board.
Why wait until 810p? You and your followers can just mute me.
So here's an interesting argument in how SMT is run.
In December, SMT just bought back into Meta. It dumped it somewhere in the first 6 months of 2020.
You'd think.....'phew! They've dodged that knife when in 2021, the SP dropped from $350+ to sub $100 over 12months." They then missed out on gains to where it is today. Timing when to catch a falling knife is an art, which I'm woefully unsuccessful at.
But trace back to anywhere in the first half of 2020, and extrapolate to today, and they still missed out on some impressive gains.
META has been generating a ton of cash. Why would you not buy that stock back sooner?
Thefrogster - What's wrong with being harsh? Unless you put pressure the managers and let them know we're not satisfied is 24 months of decline, they'll assume everything is okay and happily collect fees.
They don't work for peanuts.
These guys collect high fees and high bonuses regardless of the fund rising or declining. BG will hide behind the need to 'retain' talent to continue to increase their comp.
Its very British not to complain. Is that the culture here?
Basically, the team will reap their comp due to apathy of their investors, regardless of performance?
Really poor sales growth. Sangera not running this business very well.
lordloadsoflolly - you know my opinion (so you'll probably raise your eyebrows)
i still think the pair of them need a good talking to from the board of bg following their interview in nov '23. they lacked conviction in their answers. as i said before, their response to the question regarding ilmn showed they were behind the curve on that and actually proved they're not researching and discussing their holdings internally as well as they should. there's only 30 holdings to discuss. how many staff do you think smt has under slater and burns' leadership?
i doubt their actively researching their holdings.....just being leaders and in effect, the fall guys for the decisions and performance. if the performance is sub-optimal, they will hopefully have a word with the corresponding team member(s) and perhaps rally round to support them on their research and decision making.
douglas brodie is another manager who is having a rotten time at the moment there. given his background, the fund is heavily weighted towards healthcare.....and hence global discovery has been one of the worst performers of the last 2 years. (i actually believe they're going to close this fund soon and say "thanks for the fees, but tough ****" to the investors!)
""Tom joined Baillie Gifford in 2000 and became a partner of the firm in 2012. After serving as deputy manager for five years, Tom was appointed joint manager of Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust in 2015." He then took over as manager in 2022.
So, that's 12 years working on SMT."
Don't you mean 12 working as a partner for BG?
SMT for 8.
Still non-negligible I agree.
Walp. I actually consider 650p quite high.
Was expecting a number near 300p.
I saw a lot of commentators talk about PCT...but when I looked at the holdings, I wasn't convinced. But one thing to bear in mind the difference (as I'm sure you're aware ) between an OEIC and Investment trust is the OEIC tends to follow the NAV with greater correlation. The Investment trust is an open market purchase and there's a degree of sentiment in the volatility.
Perhaps that's why L&G Global tech fund has done better than SMT if we're focussing on technology umbrella.
LLOL - Yes...I'm aware of the disclaimer Meconopsis pasted.
I can't defend the indefensible that Slater's track record since his joining the trust to date hasn't produced stellar returns. I can't hide that fact. The reason I'm looking to exit is their performance during this 24 month down period. I mean ILMN is a classic example of being behind the curve. If you've followed sequencing companies for the last 5 years, you'll know that something has been wrong since 2020...yes during COVID when they shot up. Yet Slater and co chose to wait until the Fall of '23 to wind down because there had been too much turmoil in the past few years.....Trying to buy PACB and failing was an indication something was wrong.
I'm keeping on eye on Northvolt. The whole battery/fuel-space is suffering a little with cash burn. As a result, NV issued a 1.2bn buck convertible in August 23. They'lll burn through that. There needs to be a better subsidy mechanism in order for this industry to get off the ground.
MRNA is a 2025 story and beyond. I'm actually waiting to buy the stock if it hits $60.
As the size of the fund increases, you can't hide behind a disclaimer and operate as a wild west fund. That's why Woodford failed. He relied on his past performance to draw investors in. The new fund he started operated differently yet had billions invested......You can't just say "Sorry guys...you were naive!"
Anyway, as you know, I'm exiting at 810p.
Walp.
What do you like about SMT? What would compel you to add more at these levels?
If not, why not?
We've been on a downward trend since Nov 2021. But that applies to a lot of NASDAQ stocks excluding the Magnificent 7.
What's you expectation at the end of 2025 given a near 5 year horizon? Where do you feel the SP will be (not just the NAV) then, to prove your point that SMT is no exception?
Relative to 5 years ago, this trust SP is up 50%.
Walp....One thing SMT reminds me of is Cathie Wood and her ARK funds.
As if they believe everything they touch will turn to gold.
Take a look at Global Discovery (Another BG fund). I sold out of that at 50% loss last month, due to the fact I believe they're going to wind up the fund. The guys running that fund are really clueless. Genuinely believe they're out of ideas and they're going to throw in the towel and admit they don't know how to execute that fund.
LLL - It is an about turn, but more to do with acknowledging my rotten luck and living within my means......namely dividend shares. Bagging a healthy yield is no bad thing. Currently, if I bank the divi, I'll make my money back on the original investment in 10 years. The dividend also rises 1p per year.
I'm with MrAmericano on this partly, in that the volatility is quite stark and worse still, it skews to the downside namely it wants to trade at a discount to NAV.
My personal opinion is BG should have a responsibility to temper any cowboy like manoeuvres to wrong foot the market and claim to know where the future lies. The result is where we have been for the last 12months. When the fund size is nearly $13bn, BG should demonstrate fiscal discipline with investor money to ensure a safety net. Slater and his sidekick state " investing in the agents of change trumps reacting to short-term headwinds." But they invest early in non-profitable companies burning through cash. They don't question cash burn and where are they going to get their funding from to support their quest. The portfolio realignment you see at present is far too late. Top 5 are cash generating. We knew early last year the FED was going to raise rates (too late BTW). BG would have cleaned up had they shifted to boring stocks such as MSFT, APPL, GOOG. Even in the pharma space, they should have had a stake in LLY, even if they started small. Buying more of MRNA early 2023 was nuts. COVID revs are what drove the stock, but when we emerged from the pandemic and people had their government funded 2 shots, where was the sustained revenues? People don't want to pay $100 for a vaccine unless death is guaranteed. People wing it just like we do with the annual flu vaccine. MRNA is a 2025 and beyond story. Yet Slater and Lawrence think they know otherwise. We kinda saw this at the November 2023 fireside chat. They looked uncomfortable.
Looking at the holdings, I wonder if there's going to be another push to purge Chinese holdings.
(Just seen MRNA is only 4.4% of their portfolio. Did they sell or buy more of other's?)
Timing is everything....you're right. Funny thing is I broke my mantra and jumped in too quickly without doing DD on Slater and Lawrence. I should have booked a small loss in Feb 23 rather than riding out the year. I would have bagged a 9% dividend in the meantime. I'm waiting for 810p before I exit. Unless they boot Slater and his buddy out and refresh with guys who remember the legacy of this IT and the image is has to maintain.
CaptainPicard - £12 is half way between £8 and £16. No science.
I missed my chance to sell at 810p and switch into LGEN/MNG.....Latter is boring, but the divi is nice dependable income.
Am I mad in thinking SMT.L can reach 1200p at some point this year as chatter of rate cuts gets ever louder towards the end of 2024? I know that's 50% gain from here, but we all gotta have some dreams.!
The NAV would have to rise too which might be a stretch.
LLL - For sure..But I'm sure BG would have waited for the lower prices to buyback if they put new batteries in their crystal ball.
ANyway, positive and certainly going into 2024, this is definitely a one to hold given the chatter of cutting FED funds rate.
That's a very specific target date, Stargate.
I totally agree MGAM is valued very cheaply. It lacks press.
They've got a £1bn+ in revs planned, they pay a dividend...Leverage is 1.3x (though has been rising).
How good is there branding and global reach? I'd say they could become an acquisition target.
VEry true about the discount to NAV. I see they also bought back stock. I wonder if the managers are kicking themselves for not buying more at 700p.
Didn't notice it went above 800p this morning....my breakeven price...
Might actually breakeven soon (£8)
I doubt the regulators would allow it.
Would the UK government be happy with a non-UK entity owning a company with a huge stake in the Pensions welfare of its citizens? Imagine if Apollo messed up, how much of our retirements would be at risk?
LGEN is not stressed. No need to be acquired...and if they did consider it, they need to be asking for a hefty premium.