RE: Deepseek29 Jan 2025 11:58
I've held and I'm in profit to the tune of 20% over 4 years. Profit's a proft.
One thing in SMT.l's favour is interest rate environment. We're on a downward trajectory albeit a little shallower than hoped. This should work in SMT.L's favour.
That point on $MRNA....yes. been unfortunate. Slater & Co. did say they reduced at some point last year. Has the percentage of fund dropped due to valuation or reduction in how much they own? I'm unclear on that.
I hold $MRNA and though I'm in profit, its very volatile and have to admit its a bit of a knife edge given the data its waiting on. Holding a small amount is fine, but not 7% or something.
As for Deepseek. Europe, Japan and US have all been complimentary of what its achieved. Very noble. But without transparency, you can't tell the history of it versus non-Chinese peers.. Its a wait and see. As well, there's many layers to the AI ecosystem. Who does it hit? Those who generate AI based tools, probably since they could be paying more than those accessing Deepseek models. From a hardware point of view, they claimed to have used a 'dumbed' down verison of NVDA's GPU which they're allowed to sell. Of course its unclear if the Chinese have circumvented the export restriction through back channels and sourced more cutting edge GPU's and not declared it. We don't know and if so, then there's no negative issue. Actually positive given its more TAM, albeit one that NVDA isn't allowed to acknowledge.
Non-AI Data Center buildout is still strong and so the need to manufacture high end chips for Cloud and edge compute is still looking good. This feeds into equipment suppliers such as ASML and fabs such as TSMC.
Basically, we don't have enough info.
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