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Citigroup raises Morgan Advanced Materials target to 435 (425) pence - 'buy'
@lordloadssoflolly
These funds tend to state a horizon of 5 years.
SO where are you relative to 5 years ago.
Performance since late 2021 has been due to speculative growth stocks being hammered. The INvestment trust trades at a discount to NAV because of sentiment towards BG's team on this fund.
Not sure I can see discount narrowing to neutral, but we're on the cusp of plateauing interest rates (+50bps in total is a good bet)
@Jinkar
Is your Liontrust GF High Yield Bond (acc divis) down from when you bought owing to interest rate rises?
Has recovered a little, but doesn't look like its trading at much of a discount over a 3yr timespan.
Its Hedged, which I'm not too keen on.
Thanks for sharing that zac0_4.
I have 2 of your top holdings. Have to say I've done ok with Fidelity Global dividend and Fildelity Global Special Situations.
I have a US Bond fund too which has been moot despite the interest rate rises over the period I held. I'm intrigued to see what happens when interest rates (and in particular treasury yields) fall. My expectation says it should rise, but I'll wait for the proof.
Anyone here buying gilts directly? I know we have another 2 more 25bps rises highly likely, but at some point (either before a recession or inflation magically shows meaningful drop) BoE will want to bring them down. Back to 0.5% or lower? I doubt it, but buying 2 year gilts right now with a fixed coupon and discounted, would give you a nice tax-free return (outside of an ISA) if you held to maturity. If anyone has bought, could you share how? Do you have to open an account with Compushare? Or do people just buy fund which effectively clump purchases of gilts?
@Walp
My reason for buying $SMT at the time was spur of the moment and I thought it was a safe bet given the history of the fund.
With it dropping nearly 50% from the highs (of the last 2 years), I thought it was a good entry point and would suffer a maximum of 10% drop in the near term especially given the 10% discount to NAV at the time. That was 12 months ago.
The NAV discount has widened.
In the end, its been a learning experience to monitor the guys running the fund. There's a culture of being with the big boys and so you're safe as houses, and the value of the fund will continue to rise with minimal work and soem flippant punts. In the case of SMT, investors haven't backed that fund and its dropped close to 20% from where I bought.
Its a lesson learnt for me.
I have to say Fidelity Global Dividend (Acc) has been a good steady Eddie for me. But then and again, its not an Investment Trust. Its an OEIC.
So they announced some results of the AGM.
They have approval for a year to sell stock (aka Dilution)...LOL! What makes them think they're going to be in a position to do that over the next 12m?
Anyway, its just an approval. The can also buyback up to 14.99% of the float.
@walp
you can't base a recommendation on what insiders of a company state (senior leadership team) due to the fact they obliged to plug the company. its their job to put a positive spin on everything. look at novovax and innovia.
smt.l need to have a team who can wade through the scientific and financial data and ask, "is success likely"?
my concern regarding bg's smt team is whether the same team looking at mrna look at tsla or nvda. totally different kettle of fish. they might send out a glossy brochure with bio's of analysts...but that doesn't mean they can comment on mrna's technology, patent litigation defence or cash runway to blowout revenues (excluding covid).
has past success of the fund (seems a long way way) gotten to their heads and they've realised " oh ****! we actually need to know what we're doing here?"
i'm long in the inv trust, but the wide discount to nav shows nothing but lack of confidence in the management team. it should be trading at a minor premium to nav, even in rising interest rate environments.
funny thing is, there's individual stocks (not even niche) which have done remarkably well in the sectors they're choosing, but some of their big hitters have performed very badly and bg's senior team should really be vocal about it to the smt team and let us stockholders know they're applying pressure on the smt team.
anyone know how yesterday's agm went?
obesity and liver targeted drugs are becoming even more noisier. was in the infancy before this year. smt don't seem to figure them in their holdings.
i wouldn't complain at them holding the likes of bmy, mrk or lly (too late now).
wolf is a pure sic play and yet they're not in the picture. its tumbled a lot due to interest rate rises. but correct horizon.
anyone know how yesterday's agm went? any difficult q's?
I genuinely believe they have MRNA wrong.
Buying at $200 was insane. It is, and will do so for sometime, be marked on COVID revs. There's nothing else for a while. The fast-tracking helped them bag revs quickly, but having invested in their pipeline (correct), their stock was too elevated. Needs to drop below $80 before it makes sense to buy within the next 18months. And it will, since there's no catalysts in terms of revenue bump.
The vaccines they are working on are promising, but not over the line. As well, it takes a while for adoption. You're looking at 2027 before you see rising revenues for the company as a whole.
Peoples attitude to spending is different now than when it was back pre-2000.
We now live in a world of IVA etc.
The population is addicted to credit. PCP loans on cars are a fine example. Once a upon a time, you either bought a second hand car or you bought a car with a car loan. Now you put down a deposit, pay monthly installments (avec interest) and then you give the car back....huh? Yes you can pay the balloon payment or put down another deposit, take a new car and go round the merry go round again.
We happy to purchase things on loans and credit cards, because when we rack up debts on credit cards, someone will bail us out.
This is why interest rates don't control inflation. People need to be shocked and embarrassed when they go to the shop...stick their 100inch TV on the counter, and their debit card is declined due to insufficient funds.
Then the penny will drop whether they buy the nice TV or pay for food on the table.
FED and BoE don't have the tools to control inflation. They'll only manage it when they crash the economy.
@Littleaston
Bailey can only use interest rates to pressure inflation.
But not all inflation is the same.
I think some part of the Government or say IFS or Resolution need to study in depth, the entire chain in which the consumer feels inflation or even the so-called basket which is used to measure inflation. And convince themselves of where in the chain is inflation feeding in and why?
I look around restaurants in my area. They're full to the brim on non-weekend days. People aren't holding back.
People are still filling their cars. Sales of electrical 'toys' are still bouyant. Sales of holidays abroad and in the UK are still strong.
Interest rates aren't working.
Represents 3.2% of the holding. 20Pc uplift in NVDA SP will see NAV rise ~0.5%
THing is, SMT SP doesn't trade with a tight correlation to NAV. Difference has widened.
Positive sentiment towards SMT will narrow and reverse that spread.
They really need to be selling the trust to funds and pensions.
Getting the $1.8bn regardless of loss based on inflation is better at reducing leverage and drawing a line under that matter.
The leverage is holding this company back atm. Of course there's a better deal to be had, but working in Africa is very difficult. Angola, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana etc all make it very difficult for IOCs to work. They just have a track record of political troubles, corruption which leads to re-neging contracts after they're so far along. The only guys who successfully do business are the Chinese and Russians. But there's a clear difference between how they conduct their business and treat Africans, and how in the current day, N.America and Europe treats Africans.
We're just not in the 'bullying' approach to doing business with such contracts.
If $1.8bn is on the table? Take it and get out.