Member Info for Tambo210

Walp.

What do you like about SMT? What would compel you to add more at these levels?

If not, why not?

We've been on a downward trend since Nov 2021. But that applies to a lot of NASDAQ stocks excluding the Magnificent 7.

What's you expectation at the end of 2025 given a near 5 year horizon? Where do you feel the SP will be (not just the NAV) then, to prove your point that SMT is no exception?

Relative to 5 years ago, this trust SP is up 50%.

Walp....One thing SMT reminds me of is Cathie Wood and her ARK funds.

As if they believe everything they touch will turn to gold.

Take a look at Global Discovery (Another BG fund). I sold out of that at 50% loss last month, due to the fact I believe they're going to wind up the fund. The guys running that fund are really clueless. Genuinely believe they're out of ideas and they're going to throw in the towel and admit they don't know how to execute that fund.

LLL - It is an about turn, but more to do with acknowledging my rotten luck and living within my means......namely dividend shares. Bagging a healthy yield is no bad thing. Currently, if I bank the divi, I'll make my money back on the original investment in 10 years. The dividend also rises 1p per year.

I'm with MrAmericano on this partly, in that the volatility is quite stark and worse still, it skews to the downside namely it wants to trade at a discount to NAV.

My personal opinion is BG should have a responsibility to temper any cowboy like manoeuvres to wrong foot the market and claim to know where the future lies. The result is where we have been for the last 12months. When the fund size is nearly $13bn, BG should demonstrate fiscal discipline with investor money to ensure a safety net. Slater and his sidekick state " investing in the agents of change trumps reacting to short-term headwinds." But they invest early in non-profitable companies burning through cash. They don't question cash burn and where are they going to get their funding from to support their quest. The portfolio realignment you see at present is far too late. Top 5 are cash generating. We knew early last year the FED was going to raise rates (too late BTW). BG would have cleaned up had they shifted to boring stocks such as MSFT, APPL, GOOG. Even in the pharma space, they should have had a stake in LLY, even if they started small. Buying more of MRNA early 2023 was nuts. COVID revs are what drove the stock, but when we emerged from the pandemic and people had their government funded 2 shots, where was the sustained revenues? People don't want to pay $100 for a vaccine unless death is guaranteed. People wing it just like we do with the annual flu vaccine. MRNA is a 2025 and beyond story. Yet Slater and Lawrence think they know otherwise. We kinda saw this at the November 2023 fireside chat. They looked uncomfortable.

Looking at the holdings, I wonder if there's going to be another push to purge Chinese holdings.

(Just seen MRNA is only 4.4% of their portfolio. Did they sell or buy more of other's?)

Timing is everything....you're right. Funny thing is I broke my mantra and jumped in too quickly without doing DD on Slater and Lawrence. I should have booked a small loss in Feb 23 rather than riding out the year. I would have bagged a 9% dividend in the meantime. I'm waiting for 810p before I exit. Unless they boot Slater and his buddy out and refresh with guys who remember the legacy of this IT and the image is has to maintain.

CaptainPicard - £12 is half way between £8 and £16. No science.

I missed my chance to sell at 810p and switch into LGEN/MNG.....Latter is boring, but the divi is nice dependable income.

Am I mad in thinking SMT.L can reach 1200p at some point this year as chatter of rate cuts gets ever louder towards the end of 2024? I know that's 50% gain from here, but we all gotta have some dreams.!

The NAV would have to rise too which might be a stretch.

LLL - For sure..But I'm sure BG would have waited for the lower prices to buyback if they put new batteries in their crystal ball.

ANyway, positive and certainly going into 2024, this is definitely a one to hold given the chatter of cutting FED funds rate.

That's a very specific target date, Stargate.

I totally agree MGAM is valued very cheaply. It lacks press.

They've got a £1bn+ in revs planned, they pay a dividend...Leverage is 1.3x (though has been rising).

How good is there branding and global reach? I'd say they could become an acquisition target.

VEry true about the discount to NAV. I see they also bought back stock. I wonder if the managers are kicking themselves for not buying more at 700p.

Didn't notice it went above 800p this morning....my breakeven price...

Might actually breakeven soon (£8)

I doubt the regulators would allow it.

Would the UK government be happy with a non-UK entity owning a company with a huge stake in the Pensions welfare of its citizens? Imagine if Apollo messed up, how much of our retirements would be at risk?

LGEN is not stressed. No need to be acquired...and if they did consider it, they need to be asking for a hefty premium.

Robleo -

I'll echo a lot of what others have written.

My experience of stocks has been more to the downside. Never done well. More I've found where I belong and I should be happy with that.

Solid dividend players for me is my future and just keep ploughing savings into those funds/stocks. I don't re-invest dividends for the simple reason that if that company went under, then I'd lose the capital + the income reinvested. All boils down to not putting your eggs in one basket.

There's been occasions where my original belief on why I bought into a company remained consistent, but market forces had other ideas. For example, oil. I bought heavily into drillers last decade in the middle. Height of the oil boom. Prices for oil were north of $100/barrel. oil companies were pulling oil out of the ground at an amazing rate and driller were being paid whatever they asked for. Then the price crashed, with supply cited as outstripping demand. When you look at the data like I did, the world wasn't accumulating vast quantities if oil....perhaps a 1M boed either side of 100M boed. But those with the power to shift prices exaggerated that and dropped the price of a barrel to as low as $28. Funny that...did you ever notice petrol at the pumps materially lower than £1 between 2015 and 2020? I didn't. Did people stop buying fuel? Nope!

Nevertheless, the debt which driller took on board to buy more rigs crippled then and the day rates dropped by over 80% in some cases. Whilst its crazy to think oil was going to be plentiful for the next 100 years, that's how the market treated drillers and in the end, despite me not seeing lowing price of fuel at the pumps, drillers filed Ch11. I held on to my conviction and accepted the paperloss, to the point where my share were de-listed.

There's been other occasions where I've called it a day on my paper loss, booked a 90% loss buy selling, only to see the stock miraculously rise 20 fold the following month owing to a buyout or fantastic FDA results or bloody COVID!

Some folk are plain lucky. Some aren't. I'm the latter.

But I have settled into slow and steady (like Edward) with some limited success. This is where I belong.

As long as I beat the banks' savings rate, I'm happy.

That will be good for TLW. trackers will load up....might see a new trading range.

DB upgrades PT to 250p...Whooo hooo!

Deutsche Bank raises Legal & General price target to 295 (290) pence - 'buy'

Also noticed my other holding got a nice 10% increase in the PT.

Deutsche Bank raises M&G price target to 250 (230) pence - 'buy'

Casapinos - Defo not boring.....The current turmoil in the markets over the last 18months has presented a gift that keeps on giving. Boring but likely reliable investment that provides a bit of stability to anyone's portfolio.

In a few year, you'd be kicking yourself if Interest rates fall back to

Robleo - Define 'best'?

Could mean lowest price. Highest rating if any. Highest coupon (If its this, then perhaps you should consider corporate bonds, albeit with higher risk). Longest time to maturity.

Casapinos - Oh...There's also no stampduty to pay like shares, but you still pay HL commission to buy and sell.

There's a slight loss in interest calculated in the run up to the next maturity date. Pro-rated I presume.

Casapinos - Thanks.

I understand the relationship between Interest rates (& bond coupon) vs bond prices. That's why I'm asking giving we're nearing peak rates (if not already there). There's a few bonds priced below par offering coupons above 4% on HL platform.

Treasury 4.25% 07/12/2055

GBP | GB00B06YGN05 | B06YGN0 4.250 7 December 2055 93.440

You'll get 6% upon maturity and 4.25% annually for over 20yrs...Just tuck it away!

Treasury 4.75% 07/12/2038

GBP | GB00B00NY175 | B00NY17 4.750 7 December 2038 102.410

You'll lose 2% upon maturity but you bag almost 15yrs worth of coupon at 4.75%.

Casapinos - who do you buy your gilts through?

Is there's a minimum amount and how liquid are they to sell.

Just to confirm....being gilts, their coupons don't eat into any of our tax allowances do they if held outside of an ISA? That was my understanding.

This could be a catalyst if reports of 150bn valuation are true