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Dontshootme
Unfortunate about bailing L&G Global tech fund.
Have to say a worse investment than SMT is Ballie Gifford Global Discovery Fund.
SMT has at least recovered a little. The BG fund is so poor, I'm expecting them to close it due to poor performance.
Antonvb
"If the Kenyan government didn't pay or abide by it's own laws then they can forget about any future foreign investment ".
Chinese and Russians are always willing to turn a blind eye just to annoy the West.
"Basically if Kenya pull the plug TLW will bill them"
LOL! Good luck with that. Small time TLW taking on a foreign government.
How is any court going to enforce a fine if Kenya basically turn their back on any money owed?
Join the queue is what the response will be.
@fela96
" Gates' work on disease prevention is more admirable though I'm not sure how much success he's had with it"
Specific to the eradication of Polio, he and Melinda have been key to the drive regardless of how much of their own wealth they've put in.
Scrodingerscat
I'm fully aware of how contracts work in the UK.
But in Iraq, Iran, Kenya, Russia, Ghana, Egypt etc, things run a little differently.
Kenya owes some $6.4bn to China in bilateral debt. China would happily develop the field (for cheaper than what TLW is probably quoting) and wipe some of the debt. China couldn't careless if TLW walked away from the field. China can strongarm the Kenyan government in return for more money to fund Government plans (+ a bit of extra for you know who...oink oink!)
Let's conclude this. I'll be happy when I see that $2bn in TLW's coffers with no exceptions.
@DaKen
IN theory, Yes! But is that what happens in practice? $2bn is a lot of money for Kenya to just give up without a fight and claim that Tullow has done this wrong or that wrong during the development.
Makes sense not to burn bridges in order to build a track record of bilateral working relations.
But as I have said (unfortunately in a cringing way), doing business in Africa is not straightforward. They need investment to get development done. But you have to agree to their terms and changes to terms and conditions as time goes on. Otherwise they'll happily back out when you're 50% invested. They don't care if its not finished. They never put anything material into the project. Tullow meanwhile is nursing a significant writedown unless they complete and hope they'll get some money for oil revs which will be sold on Kenya's terms. Not Africa, but take a look at Genel. They have been screwed time and time again. Take it or leave it.
If Tullow back out to show defiance, I can bet Kenyan will go to CNOCC or Lukoil or Rosneft and ask them to take of the field and complete. What's Tullow going to do about it? Take them to the court of . LOL!
My point with all this is, throwing big numbers around like $2bn in the context of working in Africa is just naive. If TLW banks the cash, then hooray! Their balance sheet achieves a major repair. But calculating what they're owed on the back of a napkin and actually receiving funds (after various deductions that are magically taken) are 2 different things.
Crawshaw and antonb.
I've been long since £2.35....a very long time ago.
I've seen companies in Angola re-neg on their commitments to companies until the contractors go bk.
I have stock in companies with Pemex (not African) but same mentality dispute territories after oil reserves are proved and de-risked. Projects in East Africa with great promise get drawn out and investors like us are left staring at a carrot at the end of a very long stick.
Whilst Ghana has provided cashflow, I wouldn't be surprised if one day, the Ghanian government decides it wants a bigger piece of the pie and helps itself to the fields. Not sure why people are naive in thinking it would never happen.
The only countries which successfully extract resources in Africa are China and Russia. An its pretty well documented how they operate.
We have working oil in Ghana at present. Great! Extract as much as you can at prices above $55, before you're kicked out of the country due to a questionable tax dispute (yet to be whipped up). Kenya..I'll say it again...There's a reason why partners bailed. The terms aren't great and there's risk of actual revenue and how much cost contractors will have to bear. HAs it actually reached FID? It struck oil 11 years ago....yet still no progress! That's how long I've been invested! POO rose to $120+ back in 2014 ...even more of a reason to grant license and get a move on..yet here we are in 2023 with how many strategic partners?
On Libya, how can you guarantee the safety of your employees and transportation of oil for sale after you've successfully installed infrastructure? Two governments run the country and they want to divide the revenues. If not agreed, then shutdown...no revenues. Pretty well documented. They used to produce 1.8mbpd. They're under 1.2mbpd ytd. Dropped as low as 800kbpd in July 2022.
"Thereafter, positive news on Ghana gas deal( hopefully with some conciliatory words on the tax dispute) should see 12 month highs and a positive outcome on Kenya should then see 60p+."
Doing business with African governments doesn't work I'm afraid. I know its a 'paint everyone with a same brush' comment, but they just don't stick to agreements. Kenya not happening, otherwise it would have happened by now. Ghana tax dispute....come on, has to be in their favour.
Progress on Jubilee/TEN fields has been painfully slow and also cost more due to delays.
Angola too is a country and pulls the rug from under your feet. South Africa is in bed with Russia. Libya is a no no.
Either that or oil contractors need to bake Government re-negging into their estimates.