Member Info for Tambo210

LLL

'True, but I'd argue largely a red herring. Lockdown periods created a short term bubble - particularly in the tech sector - which subsequently burst for the majority of companies that benefitted most at the time.'

You beat me to it.

'True, but I'd argue largely a red herring. Lockdown periods created a short term bubble - particularly in the tech sector - which subsequently burst for the majority of companies that benefitted most at the time.'

YEs, but if you're like me and not great at catching the opposite of a falling knife, then we'll never succeed.

Personally its gambling at that point detached from fundamentals.

Like yourself, I have to be content with the gains to date and bail at this point which is why I sold at 1143p (bought at 800p) . Hence I moved to LGEN/MNG/PHNX. or some oeic's like Fidelity Global dividend fund,

All the best.

AI Hype is beginning to look like a bubble despite what Tom and other commentators state at the moment. Valuations are stretched and all it takes is for one of the Mag7 companies to guide flat or lower, and we'll cascade. The holdings report is still dated July, so it'll be interesting to see if they weighted more towards Semis.

I think they hold SpaceX as #1 in the hope they'll IPO and then start cashing out.

MercadoLibre is geographically more cushioned. But 3, 4, 5 are vulnerable at the moment.

Some stocks which I've followed have grown to silly valuations just based on involvement of AI related infrastructure. No evidence of size of orders or revevue growth. Just they've annouced a partnership.

If China really starts to get a foothold in the eco system, then competition is going to ratchet up.

I'm also seeing some volatility in stocks for no apparent reason. Down one day by 7% up the next by 6%. Then drift up.

I swapped into LGEN to secure plain ol' dividend. I'll buy back in if this falls below 850p.

Eckie8 - There's a difference between dividend low dividend growth and a dividend cut.

Business conditions dictate a cut or lower dividend growth.

As has been discussed on this board many times, LGEN (alongwith PHNX and MNG amongst others) are high yielders. Haven't been considered growth. Even if you drip your stagnant dividend, you grow in a compound fashion.

Dividend growth is a bonus.

Just a point to note, this year, its been a different.

I got away iwth it for PHNX and MNG earlier this year.

Didn't work for LGEN...took ages for me to buy back in at 235p (sold as 247p)

I'm still of a belief that with Trump this year, insurer et al., like MNG, LGEN, PHNX have held up remarkably well after ex-div.

Recent one was MNG. Went xDiv 11th Sept. Take a look and ask will it be worth it? If you have a VERY large holding, then a quick trade might be rewarding.

Hard to call this year.

'I am the most accurate poster on here by a mile.

Who called sell at 39p

Who called out the gas blag?

Who was the only one on here who commented on the $30m loss with $65 op ?

:)'

JMAX - With that amount of boasting, be careful not to bang your head on the way out through the double doors.

I agree with a lot of what you've said, but even I have to admit you're a bit childish.

Selfishly I would like it to stay lower here until after ex-div+a few days so I can load up (Haven't started my 2025/26 ISA allowance yet.

UserSteve - Can't seem to find a justfication.

Might just be trying their luck to get it so low.

I have a buy order set for 235p, in cash there's a flash crash.

Only glimmer of hope it'll happen is the Cheeto king will do something rash over a weekend.

Sparhawk - LOL! You'd never make it into politics with such sensible suggestions..

Must admit I've been reading into the destabilisation of the French debt due to the government collapse talks.

Whilst their yields are still lower, they really are sinking under a lot of public debt. Crazy how the public sector refuses to help with the debt levels. Painful, but if a haircut to welfare is required to stave off a bailout, then surely it should be accepted.

I really hope such action is taken here with our public sector bill (welfare, public pensions, state pensions, etc). Its just nuts how fast the wage bill is rising.

If Rachel from accounts drags her feet and instead taxes the private sector more, then that debt-to-GDP is going to keep creeping up.

We just have no growth.

LGEN has been doing really well, and my belief is still that Trump's tariff fallout is really what's pushing money over here in to high yielders (safer). If he was to become nicer towards businesses, in particular growth sectors, money could switch to the opposite direction and LGEN is fall back to 220p. But that won't happen until mid-terms or he's up for re-election.

But for now.....French government bonds are holding me back from going all in on LGEN.

So MGAM selling a 42m revenue business (adjusted profits £5m).

$20m cash as part of the deal. Hope they use it sensibly.

Couerdelion - Thanks (You'd have thought they'd get that right!) Been like that for weeks.

When you look on the L&G website, there's an option to have a calendar entry for Ex-Div. It explcitly says 12pm BST. Is that an error or does it go Ex-Div at Noon and we may see a further drop?

That gearing ratio looks high, but actually they could increase the shareholder equity to bring the ratio materially down (to our expense through dilution). Total equity is $350m. Ok, so the market cap is £500m+, but as I said before, its unusual to have revenues higher than market cap, unless it was in serious financial distress and the shares had been hammered.

The point about the dividends was very valid and I didn't add that until I read more on it. On the face of it, it looks bad. BUt unless I'm mistaken, they bought back £8m+ in stock over the last reporting period (of a £40m authorised buyback, in tranches of £10m). So why not stop the buybacks to fund the dividend and not make it look bad?

The EPS has been affected quite badly with FOREX (not unanimously)...but this is not unique to MGAM. Almost all companies in the UK and US I'm watching have reported the same.

SO I don't think the results can be viewed as simplistically. I do think they are misfiring on certain things and have had expeditures on spurious events like the IT hack etc. But that's management oversight and they needed it to move with the times.

My opinion is they're undervalued. If they were trading in the US bourses, this thing would be higher. But that's the downside of listing in the UK. Good luck

Bendipa1 - Are they making a loss?

They generated FCF. How many companies can boast that? Only £1.2m but still positive.

Still paying a divi and ttheir net leverage is only 1.7x. (Note : Their dividends do hurt their Net cash flow)

Whilst FY revenue was down modestly last year, they still bagged £1.1bn. Yet its market cap is just over £500m. I know its not a great measure, but usually the market cap exceeds the annual revs...especially on a dividend paying stock.

WHen you look at this company, I can't fathom why it trades so low. I wonder if they attend conferences and exhibitions. They're products are very much in the crosshairs of modern teh industry. Is China beating them to it? Is their management too laid back? Dividend is reliable.

Forex has been a pain, but they really should be growing....I need to redo my research and see who their competitors are in the markets that matter.

Some of the points are valid, but RBC does look like its trying to pull the SP down for a buy op.

Next leg down should be when it goes ex-div this month. 6-7p on the day.

Quite a strong share, though most insurers have. My theory on the rise has been the Trump factor. Trump's tariff and general anti-business rhetoric has pushed money out of growth stocks in the US and offshore. LGEN with their dividend along with MNG and Phnx to name a few have been safe havens.

If Trump goes Pro-business again, then I'll bet money will go the other way. This is also supported by the fact the pound is stronger than the dollar since DJT toook over.

Xxnjr - I think JMAX's point is it doesn't generate FCF from operating activities (even when WTI trades at 65USD). Only by asset sales as you detailed.

This is a big deal, since you want the company to accuulate cash on hand through its operating business......like a lot of oil companies should be doing.

So the guidance is bonafide, just it shows it has to sell assets to report cash increase.

It'll also move with interest rate decisions in the US

"TLW could do with the $80m this year. At $65 op, TLW is losing money."

Aren't they making money on anything >$59 According to the hedging detailed in page 6 of https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/4117/4288/7111/Tullow_Oil_2024_Full_Year_Results_Fact_Book_.pdf?