Member Info for TakingMyTime

@zoros "TMT - I owe you an apology for mistaking you for someone else earlier today!"

If he was smart or good-looking I'll thank you instead of forgiving you.

@zoros
"I don't think we should discard the option completely but I do hear loud and clear that a majority here think this is folly. So be it."

I don't think it is folly. I just think that NCM is unlikely to pay enough to justify it. I also think they probably made an offer and it wasn't enough to justify it, and the newly announced JV is the outcome. If they were ever going to buy all of Hav, it was before that. Now, they've facilitated us going to mining, which means the cost of buying Hav from us will be much higher.

Conclusion: they aren't going to do it barring a significant change. They've made it much harder to do so for themselves, and coincidentally, much harder for a rival to do so, as well. That JV went a long way toward protecting our independence and future ownership of 25% of Hav. Won't be surprised at all if they buy the last 5%, maybe an additional 5-10 if we offer it, but we're going to be in Hav for a long time.

Also, Jack, doing ok. Spent way too much time in GGP conversation today but it's been a kind of therapy, I guess. Just to think about something not all that important and maybe get out of myself and do something to help others a little bit as well.

It's weird, you go through both very deep lows and these bizarre highs where you just want to laugh at something. I suppose it's just different ways of responding to extreme stress, I don't know.

Thanks for asking. Will probably be here excessively at times and not at all at other times for a while. Have to find an equilibrium but not too bothered about that yet.

@jack, fair enough. Can't say I've ever looked that way.

"That click only tells you chat data"

Yep. Click on my name you wouldn't know I'm in FJV, ML, NCM. Probably would have to go through a lot of history to see I'm in IAG, BP, ROR, and might guess I'm not in them anymore, but I am. One of those boards is dead, the other two are troll-filled and I quit trying. Might see I'm in PSN. Might see I'm in ABF, too. Would never see which funds I'm in. Couldn't tell which are significant holdings and which are minor flyers, and can't tell when I bought them. Most importantly, can't tell why I bought them and how it fits into my strategy.

Hi, Zoros. I don't think I responded to you this time, though you've directed a response to me. Perhaps my spirit wafted into someone else's reply. :)

But to answer you now, the price of gold-in-the-ground, even for Australia, even for all the special factors involved with Hav, is probably not more than $500 / oz and probably less. The price of mined gold is roughly POG minus AISC, with some additional deductions we don't have to go into right now. In the case of Hav, it might be around $1000 / oz. You have to wait for it, of course, but the difference is substantial.

Explorers usually sell because they simply have to. Solg doesn't want to sell because of the huge difference between the two. GGP has taken the middle route -- sell 3/4 to NCM to get the thing rolling.

If NCM offers enough to narrow the gap between produced gold and gold in the ground, I'm sure GH would sell. Otherwise, I'm quite happy to see us go on to production as a junior partner in a JV with an experienced miner. In the long run it results in much higher income and within two years solves forever the perennial problem that explorers have -- where do you get the money to pay salaries and drill all the holes you think are needed?

There are other options, as well -- selling an additional 10% of Hav, for instance, to get funds now. Renegotiate with NCM to become basically a streaming company. Many variables.

The JV clearly indicates, to me, that we're moving towards production as a junior partner, with NCM providing expertise and driving things forward. I don't really want us to become a full-scale mining company going it alone unless Scally has four Havierons. Then, use Hav Mark 1 to finance all that is needed, and hold onto all 100%. Otherwise, I hope we use Hav money to drill it enough to prove it up sufficiently that it is virtually entirely derisked and we can get a 60/40 or even 55/45 JV deal.

@OilM
There have been some relatively small MSCI trackers who have taken up investments. For the most part they are using a formula just like GDXJ (though a different formula, obviously).

The vast majority of the recent large investors are doing so because of their assessment that there is an upside worth buying, not formula-driven investment.

They may be buying for short term gains, for instance to sell the shares to GDXJ this coming week. But most are looking for medium term gains (maybe a quick 20-30% over 3-12 months) or long term gains. I believe there were two significant triggers. First, inclusion in the MSCI index triggered much higher profile and brought GGP into their universe of investable shares and perhaps into their high-focus shares.

Second, the recent JV announcements moved the needle for institutional investors. GGP is no longer "just an explorer," we've signaled that we are moving to mining and NCM has signaled that they are facilitating that rather than pressuring us into a low-ball buyout. We are not going to struggle for the cash to do it. NCM is not going to be talking about "potential JV" any more, it's an actual, real JV now, which was pointless if there is no intent to keep it that way all the way to production. All those things tick the boxes for fund managers that this is now a safe investment rather than a crazy gamble.

Sorry, you guys are mistaken. The rules for the index are clearly published on the MVIS website and the rules for the GDXJ fund are clearly published on their website. There is no qualitative analysis done. The fees they charge aren't enough to pay for research/analysis. They just blindly follow a formula.

It appears to not even be calculated by high-quality staff. They made a stupid mistake last time and I would never trust them to even get their own percentages right.

Ah!

Every older lady in our church was 'Auntie'. Church as a family, not blood relatives.
"one of Charles’ 80-year-old ‘aunties’ walked up...."

Cultural thing, not something you should have been expected to understand. Sorry for not being clear.

One in 70s, one 80s. Odd question but obviously matters to you.

Dear All, wish I'd done this on the weekend, at least. Markets are open, it isn't fair to have this on the board for those who come here to discuss GGP. I am sorry.

@Jambo, if your question is about estate planning, he has enough to take advice and then do what he wants. I'm just going to have to give it away when it comes to me anyway, I will never use that much.

Russkie, thank you. You remind me that just because I can write about it doesn't mean there's anything special about my pain. We all suffer at times, sometimes badly. It is good for me to remember. All the best to you.

My cousin in America made bad mistakes, no violence, but stuff he shouldn’t have done. He asked for help getting a lawyer. We said no, because he deserved consequences. We didn’t know about the three-strikes law. We didn’t know blacks were going to prison in droves because they didn’t have good lawyers. We didn’t know it would be life without parole.

When ‘Cheri’ learned it was life, she cried for days, and said, ‘We must at least support his family.’ She blamed herself. For 19 years, she sent most of our ‘retirement savings’ to support my cousin’s wife and two children, month after month.

My cousin got out last year, after the law changed. He was just starting to get on his feet when Covid hit and shut his job down. He wants to start a new business. We planned to sell GGP shares to finance it.

My father-in-law’s letter says he and Mum are going to finance my cousin’s business, but only if I come and spend Christmas with them instead of alone. He can’t buy happiness for me but they are spending all they can on love, in many ways. It’s breaking my heart all over again, in a good way.

I know this is self-indulgent. I’ve always used writing to sort my feelings. It’s very strange to do it here – maybe it’s the GGP connection – I was writing about GGP when I heard, and the thing with my cousin. No doubt the psychologists have an explanation. It’s not what you’ve come here for but I know many of you will forgive me. At least I’ve waited until outside trading hours, that makes me feel a little less guilty.

I’m sitting at my desk looking at a letter from my father-in-law. He wrote it to my wife on 30 November after he heard the news. It says that she was always in his will, and that if it goes the way the doctors say, he’s changing it to put me in instead.

I have his old will and his new one. The only change is the name. Her name is gone, mine is in its place. It’s two million quid, plus half a million for each of our kids. What will I do with two million quid?

His letter says he never told her before because he wanted her to be proud of me that I’d taken care of her on my own, and to never have any doubts in her mind that I’d married her for money.

His letter says he knew I’d make good and make her happy, he knew from the first time he met me. It says he’s always been thankful that I trusted him to accept me. It also teases her that the best thing I ever did was sort out her politics.

I hope you don’t mind indulging me.

Three decades ago, a young man (call him Charles) came here from Jamaica for uni. His father, who did the same earlier, said, ‘Keep your head down, always be polite, don’t hear any abuse coming your way, and don’t fall in love.’ That all seemed easy since Charles was very shy.

Our ‘hero’ made only one friend his first six months. But one day two classmates invited him to a small party at their flat and he went. It was more of a political discussion group than a party, but he enjoyed the back and forth and they treated him well, and asked him to come again the next week.

One girl, we’ll call her ‘Cheri’, singled out Charles. His family was religious and conservative, and she was an atheistic Marxist. She always targeted him, and after about 5 weeks they agreed to get together separate from the group to discuss things, and a strange friendship began. Cheri started asking Charles about his church, and finally said she’d go with him. Charles didn’t want to take her, since everyone was black he thought she’d feel uncomfortable, but she was proud of her ‘tolerance’ and said she’d come.

First thing, one of Charles’ 80-year-old ‘aunties’ walked up, gave Cheri a huge hug, and said, ‘Are you in love with Charles? We all are, so you’d better be.’ Cheri laughed and said, ‘No,’ and Auntie Marla said, ‘You mean “not yet.” We will pray and that will solve it.’

Charles was mortified, but no one ever withstood Auntie Marla’s prayers. Three months later, Cheri told Charles she wanted to get married. Charles was afraid for her – there weren’t many interracial marriages around. But her father gave his blessing with an understanding – there would never be any money unless she were starving, but they would always be welcome in his home.

Charles and Cheri did everything together. She adopted his faith, she was 100% for him in every way. She learned all about his work. She even became a cricket fan. She was the kindest and least selfish person he ever met. She was the best wife he could have ever imagined. They were mates and soul mates. He worshipped the ground she walked on. They had three children and five grandchildren. This year, they became GGP shareholders, Cheri first, then Charles.

28 November, Cheri became ill, hospitalised 29 November. All night Charles waited, expecting a bad ulcer or something, burning time reading about the JVs with NCM, and writing his analysis. About 0930, he was told the cancer was everywhere, and nothing could be done. Covid meant only one hour together before he had to leave.

By noon, Charles had phoned everyone. At home, he looked at his iPad and his stupid analysis, said, “Why not, what’s it matter,” and posted it. It's weird how GGP got in the middle of this.

On compassionate grounds, Charles got to be with Cheri in hospital 7 and 8 December. Very early 9 December, Cheri’s suffering ended, and Charles' light went out.

I'm waiting to be let back into a hospital room. Trying to distract my mind, I read the news, checked investments, and decided to see what's been happening here since Monday.

Almost always, you can tell when a poster is well on the sunny side of 70. When he's obviously a genuinely nice person, you don't judge his social media posting as harshly as you might judge mine. I'm neither as old nor as nice. You might not trust his "sources" (I trust none I can't verify) but his personal quality is obvious and should be appreciated.

It's not what I expected here. There's often a sense of shared humanity here which is why I came today. That went missing. Please bring it back for your own sakes. You never know.

Rushing.

Not reading here, but reading you on Twitter. Scotiabank know NCM gets 70% for a pittance. Value surely based on NCM 70%, not 40%. Still a good number but hope none of my friends here get hurt by reading it wrong.

My stuff: thanks all friends for kind words. Some know and have my permission to say if they want. Don't mind people knowing, just not ready to talk myself. Thanks again.

I apologise if anyone has posted the things I'm going to say. I have had life-changing news and have no time to read it all. But I am still very interested in this share and am arrogant enough to think some may find my views interesting or valuable. So, some of the thoughts I've had.

1. NCM is not buying the rest of Hav from us, nor buying us out. They have just provided financing to us that will make a buyout much harder for them. They wouldn't do that if they intended a full or partial buyout.

2. We're going mining, which is probably the best way to get maximum return from Hav. Compare the price of spot gold to common prices for gold-in-the-ground, and you will see what I mean by that. But it does mean it will take longer to get max return.

3. The three agreements to be announced today are obviously a package. NCM gets a great deal on PRE / Black Hills, no doubt. We get rapid forward movement on Hav that protects our full ownership stake (25-30%) in it. That's great news. We gave up something for it, yes.

4. This clearly tells us that GH does not want to spend our money exploring PRE. That can only mean he has other places to spend it. It is virtually locked on to my thinking that preliminary results at Scal showed a hit, promising enough that he's ready to throw all resources at Hav and Scal (which we still own 100%).

5. I think we are likely to be going mining at Scal, if it is a hit. We may do this with Hav profits or we may do it as a JV at a better percentage.

6. PRE? I'm pretty sure this tells us Scal was a hit, which means we weren't going to get to PRE forever. 25% of something is better than 100% of nothing.

7. I suspect this makes a hostile takeover harder. If you had a hit at Scal, you'd know from the experience with Hav that the market will be slow to value Scal. That makes you very appealing to raiders, who would say, "25% of Hav? Scal? And we'll get PRE, too. And we might get it for 50p / share or something." Not now. Now it's 25% of PRE and they have to work with NCM, etc. This is good because a hostile takeover now would probably mean we get less than full value.

8. We still have Rudall and Panorama.

I don't love every aspect of this but I love it on the whole. It's a good deal (and good for NCM as well). It drives us forward. It's nice to have us hit on the GDXJ rebalance valuation date, I doubt that's an accident.

Might not be here much for a few months.

ATB

@Bamps, just put them in your pockets and jump as much as you want. :)

Oh, and reported (again). Would encourage others to do so as well if you think he broke any site rules.