Member Info for TakingMyTime

@Kjgood
" I can see some benefit in letting NC know behind the scenes that they are not the only player in the market to drive a better deal, but initially and during negotiations I wouldnt be doing this in public"

Yes, absolutely. You've got to trust the BOD to handle this kind of negotiation carefully, with the big picture in view. That may mean that even after the RFR is gone, you give NCM the inside track on Scal negotiations.

@Tex
"That said, if we had a 50/50 JV with NCM for Scally, what is NCM motivation to develop Scally at lighting speed and feed to Telfer, instead of using those resources on HAV or Juri?"

Good question. Not really expecting a 50/50, probably best it could get is 60/40, or maybe even 70/30 but with much higher expenditure on NCM's part. I think we'd always be the junior partner and I'm ok with that. I think at one point in the past I suggested 50/50, but further research suggests that's not ever likely.

So, why should NCM go full speed ahead at Scal if it's 60/40 as opposed to 70/30 at Hav? Perhaps for money, LOL. If Scal is another Tier 1, 60% of a Tier 1 is worth pursuing hard, especially since by that time Hav would be paying the bills for it. And what if Scal is actually bigger than Hav? Suppose Hav is 20 moz, and NCM owns 70% -- that's 14 moz belonging to NCM. What if Scal is 30 moz and NCM owns "only" 60%? That would be 18 moz belonging to NCM, and perhaps under less cover.

To be clear, I'll be ecstatic if we get a 10 moz resource at Hav, the above was just for illustration. But I don't think the percentage difference in JVs is likely to significantly drive NCM's decisions on what to prioritise. More likely it will be the nature of the resource, how long it takes to bring it to production, whether it makes sense to process the ore at Telfer, etc.

@Hopefully
From the 30 November RNS:
"In order to support the planned acceleration of the construction of a box-cut and decline and a faster rate and scope of planned spending on exploration activities, the parties have agreed to fund these activities in proportion to their post-Farm-in period interests (70% Newcrest; 30% Greatland)."

That sounds to me like the 70/30 spend division is intended to encompass all early works and all further exploration drilling.

As many have already noted, the Farm-in agreement wasn't big enough in scope to really handle what they discovered when they kicked the drilling into high gear. As best I can see, the $20 million additional spend is encompassed in the 70% they'll be spending.

You ask, "Just how big is Havieron?" Perhaps we will live long enough to find out!

@Texlax "That said, I’m all for JV’s because of the certainty it brings, lack of dilution, and the growth in SP."

I'm all for JVs, too. But IMO, if we have a hit at Scal and we prove it up whilst waiting for NCM's RFR to expire, we're likely to get better JV terms, since it will be more derisked AND there will be open competition for the right to be our partners. So I'm ecstatic with the Hav relationships and content with Juri, but I hope we take our time on this one and get it right, if Scal turns out to be a big hit.

One key thing, the main thing I was looking for. Trending above a five star rating. That suggests that the build quality / customer satisfaction issues are continuing to resolve strongly. The negative press this company was getting in the past, much of which was fully deserved, appears to be history.

Cash position is very good, land bank still strong. Brexit not that bad for PSN. Once Covid clears, this should fly. I'll look for 3500 before I top slice, I'll hold well past that. No matter what happens in the economy, there's still a housing shortage, and if the economy struggles they'll just by PSN houses rather than from one of the more expensive builders.

Top-end builders may have bigger upsides in a good economy, but PSN will do well in a good economy, too. IMO this investment is "safe as houses."

"Where can you track short interest in GGP?"

Maybe go interview people in an insane asylum?

@napth
If we assume a higher POG / inflation, we probably have to assume other components of AISC will be higher, too. Labour costs, equipment, etc. But these increases aren't likely to come close to tracking POG in an inflationary cycle.

@TTB, LOL, not something you'd usually be accused of.

@TTB "Hannam & P have previously used $1950, which I know some see as a bit high. Maybe not in 18 months. Straight away that's a +40% increase on Berenberg's 33p which equates to 46p per share or 92p un-risked...."

Only if they are doing their maths wrong. It's a 40% increase on Berenberg's $1400, but the value of the asset is price per ounce minus AISC. AISC will be the same either way, so a $550 increase in the value of the gold will probably mean close to double the value of the asset, depending on their AISC assumption (which I don't remember and am too lazy to look up).

@Dodge, you're slipping, mate! What happened to that #6 ranking you were bragging about?

Time to start bringing the quality content and stop the slacking!

@RW, it is very kind of you and Jenny to take time to send messages to us. All the best to Nigel and your family.

I am sure, when you think about it, that it will be no surprise he is well regarded here. He is obviously the kind of person who would earn that kind of regard -- quality shines through.

May God go with you all.

Hi, Bamps. Totally serious.

Lots of evidence to think there's a resource there. No way there's sufficient evidence to be guaranteeing "the most prolific gold and copper deposit in the world."

And even if someone knew all the results of all the drill cores, there still wouldn't be enough for that. And anyone who knows all those results isn't going to be talking about it like this here.

Easy to believe JB knows something. Impossible to believe he knows everything he's claiming to know.

@RTC, I can understand why people are sure that there are resources there. Lots of evidence to make us think that way, though obviously no proof until we get the results.

But there's no way anyone can be as sure as our friend is stating, unless he's actually a mole and has been burrowing under the earth at Scal for years to find out how much Au/Cu is there. It's all buried, it takes drilling to know what is there. There hasn't been enough of that.

So, how many holes have been drilled at Havieron to prove how big it is?

How many holes have been drilled at Scallywag to prove how big it is?

So, even if Joe Bass somehow has access to all the results from Scal, and even if they show great, phenomenal, mind-blowing results, even if they all hit, is that enough to know that Scal is going to make Hav "look a tad small"? Is it enough to be able to know that it is "the most prolific gold and copper deposit in the world"?

How could anyone possibly know enough to make these assertions at this point in time? Even if they had the results?

There haven't been enough holes drilled to make these assertions.

Anyone who believes in DYOR has to be saying, "Sorry, mate, bring the evidence." These assertions keep showing up but the evidence is lacking.

Right, he's sold less than half a million shares, like I said.

Have you researched how much he still holds? He's still the beneficial owner of about £87 million, he sold about 12% of what he owned. Hardly a mass divestment.

I remember Nige going out of his way to try to convince me to change my strategy because he was sure I was making a mistake. It wasn't a condescending thing, we had a mutual respect. But there was absolutely nothing in it for him, he was just being a friend. Whether I changed or stayed with the same strategy made no difference to him, he was just trying to be helpful.

If I'd got into GGP when he first told me to, I'd have been buying at 2p rather than 9, 11, 12, 13, etc. (Of course, if I'd listened to Bamps and TomE it would have been 1 or 1.5.) I don't regret that decision, but I'd love to tell him, "You were right, Nige, should have listened to you." Of course, he knew I eventually did come in heavily.

A true gentleman, hope he is peaceful and pain-free, at least.

Dear RW, please if it is appropriate pass my regards to Nige. He will remember me, perhaps. What a nice person he is. He had a part in convincing my wife to invest here.

Best regards,
TMT

@bernard
Probably mostly profit-taking. When price goes high, some people top-slice, others say "good enough" and sell.

As I posted elsewhere, for non-UK shareholders, in most cases we're in a new tax year, so if they took profits in December, they'd have had to pay capital gains tax on those profits very soon. If they waited until January, they'd pay capital gains tax a year later.

So some who may have wanted to take profits a month or week earlier took them this last week, instead, for tax reasons.

Also, I'm guessing some are nervous about Scal and think there's a risk it isn't going to hit, and that if it doesn't the SP will drop. So when the price went high, they sold out to avoid that risk.

If so, I'd expect the drop is mostly over, that the Scal-nervous people are likely to be pretty much to tapped out, as well as the non-UK profit takers, and the selling is likely close to worn out. If so, we'll stabilise, at least, this week, if not begin to climb again.

@redleader, it was a joke. If you look at it in thread view, you can see the original post and....

Mate, if you look at that thread in thread view you can see it. Warning, you won't learn anything of value, it was totally a joke then, as was my post today. If you want a laugh on the weekend, I for one thought it was funny.

"Never was a truer word said on this thread"

Well, the bar for "true words on this thread" had been set astoundingly low, so I'm not sure you've said a lot here, LOL.