Member Info for TakingMyTime

"TakingMyTime, are you trying to set a rhetoric trap for me here:-)"

No, trying to understand and expose your obviously fallacious reasoning. ;)

So now, I'm going to attempt to shred it (completely altruistically for your benefit, of course!). I'll break it into pieces to perhaps facilitate clearer conversation on the various components, as I see them.

If Goliath (and the rest of PRE) is a duster, this whole discussion is pointless, right? So this only really a big deal if there is a resource of at least 10 moz, right? Let's assume (for purposes of discussion) that would eventually add £1 or more to the SP. Maybe a lot more if it is as big as we hope.

If we had done a placing of 300 million shares to raise our $50 million (USD), that dilution would have cost us over £300 million, in the long run. Not 8% plus LIBOR which can probably be refinanced after a year to a lower rate, and will likely be paid off in 2-3 years.

So, point #1, in any scenario in which Paterson Range East matters, the loan agreement with NCM is a huge win for GGP. Much, much superior to a placing. Dilution is shockingly expensive in any scenario in which the SP is significantly increasing. The SP seems likely to significantly increase even if PRE is a duster, and if the BOD has any strong indication that Scal is going to be economical to mine, they would have been derelict in their duty to shareholders to do a placing if a debt financing was available.

The loan agreement is hugely beneficial to GGP compared to the benefit to NCM, which is marginal at best.

If you are unable to see this point then I don't see any point in discussing any of it further, because this is foundational to the way I view the three agreements announced together.

That's part one, summary:
The loan agreement was immensely to GGP's benefit.

@SocialistB

Two questions for you:
1. Who benefits the most by Havieron moving from "Farm-in and potential JV" to "Havieron JV"? NCM or GGP?

2. Who benefits the most by NCM providing financing at LIBOR+8%? NCM or GGP?

(On #2, remember that if we'd done a placing the cost would have already been 100% rather than LIBOR+8%. So who has benefited most?)

I bought £10K more today.

@SocialistB
1. You are basically right about NCM's RFR. We can't do a Farm-in, JV, or sale of Scal without giving NCM the right to match any offers we receive. That restriction expires, if I remember correctly, on completion of Stage 4 of the Hav Farm-in agreement.

2. The same RFR applied to PRE until the Juri JV superseded it.

3. You are still obviously, from your posts, viewing the Juri JV in isolation, rather than as part of a package with the Hav JV and financing agreements. I believe that's a fundamental mistake in how you are viewing it. Havieron is the crown jewel, Goliath is maybe a huge resource but maybe a huge lump of worthless granite. If we had been forced to sell our share of Hav for less than it was worth because we couldn't finance our share of the costs, we'd have potentially killed our most valuable asset. If we had been forced to do a huge placing at 15-18p per share (remember what the SP was at the time), that would look pretty disastrous compared to where we are now.

The Hav JV and financing agreements have made the company. If the Juri JV was part of the price for that, it's a huge winner. Especially if we know that Scal is a hit and all of our resources are going to go to proving it up.

If you are going to view Juri in isolation, it's never going to look very satisfactory.

@Sanibel, I think we've discussed this before and are largely on the same page.

There are things in the wording of both NCM's and GGP's release on the Juri JV that indicate both parties think Scal is important and valuable.

I'm on record as saying that the Juri JV makes all kinds of sense to me if we know Scal is a hit, and that I don't understand it if we don't know that.

My expectation is that all, that is, 100% (if not 1000% :)) of our resources in the near and medium term are going to Hav and Scal. If you KNOW you've got a hit at Scal, then you know the best thing you can do with your money, besides driving forward with Hav at full speed, is to prove up Scal. Turn it into another Hav (or Hav++) and prove it up as best you can to try to get an even JV deal than at Hav.

If that's the case, then you have this glorious set of targets at PRE that you literally have nothing to spend on exploring it, and you aren't going to have anything to spend on it for a while. What do you do then? Offer NCM a good deal, both to be a sweetener to facilitate the Hav deals and to turn a completely inactive asset, and one that is unlikely to be activated for a decade or more, into an active one.

If Scal is already known to be a hit, the Juri deal makes a tremendous amount of sense to me.

We didn't give away 75%.

This was not going to be mined or explored for a long, long, long time if we did it on our own. If we didn't do it on our own, the very most we would have held would have been a 35% split. Farm-ins between majors and juniors don't happen for 50-50. We would not have had the money to develop this at all for probably a decade (because all our money is going to Hav and Scal), and then we'd have done well to get a 65/35 split.

So we gave away 10%, not 75%. The 65% was going to be gone anyway.

What did we get out of it? We brought the exploration forward 10 years. And we gave NCM a sweetener to facilitate the JV/financing arrangements for Hav which are now driving the SP.

That's two things we got, and they are probably the main reasons for the Juri JV. In addition, yes, it's a defensive tactic that makes a hostile takeover harder for anyone but NCM. And the Hav deals are pretty indicative that NCM isn't taking us over soon.

So you are right that this was a good defensive move, but it's not the primary reason for it. The bigger impact is that it helped facilitate the accompanying Hav related deals, and those are what has driven the SP on. That's the best defensive tactic of them all -- increase your share price.

I strongly recommend that you stop seeing Juri in isolation. It was obviously a package deal.

I'm immensely happy with it because it makes it almost certain we're taking Hav to production, and in my view that's what gets us the best long-term return.

"IF he ever found himself short of funds (which is extremely unlikely) surely it would then be our decision as to whether or not to help him out and in whatever way we see fit to do so?"

As long as the money is no longer under his control, you are in the clear. It would be your decision (and your brother's) to make a gift to him out of your money if he ever needed any.

If you were to give money back to him, the tax man might claim that proves it was never a gift at all, and go after you on any amounts that weren't given back. You might take advice before giving any back, as to ways you can do it to protect your position. One option might be to loan him the money in such a case, but I don't know the rules. Obviously everyone hopes he'll never need any of it.

Thanks, Paddy, appreciate it.

Paddy, you know this stuff better than me. Am I right that this is where the explosives store was going to be?

Maybe what they've seen from ARV convinced them to have a look before locating the explosives store there. Just one little hole to find out if we should be thinking about mining there instead of putting explosives there. Maybe? Total speculation.

Sounds like you did the right thing. Every large company will make mistakes and have to pay fines from time to time, but from what you've said, they've confirmed it and raised it to the ICO, which sounds like they eventually got it right and did what they should have done.

Persimmon has few friends in the press. If this were anything more than a one-off, the press would have been all over it by now. I'm not convinced it undermines the case for investing.

Thanks, Paddy, I appreciate it. Yes, it's reassuring when people with different experience and knowledge bases are all seeing the same thing.

To you and all my other friends here, I am doing ok, Christmas was better than expected. I am back to actually caring about how this investment does, though for different reasons than before. Now, it's more about winning the investment game than about caring about the money. But I suppose the fact that I'm back to caring about things rather than just going through the motions is a good thing.

That said, I think I'd like to ask the board to move on. I appreciate the friendship and the caring more than I can properly express but now that Christmas is past and I've survived it :), I think it is best to look forward. My situation is not significantly worse than thousands of other people this year, including some on this board, and to bring it up may stir grief for those who may be struggling even worse than me.

If I need help, I promise my friends here that I'll get it -- please do not worry about me, and trust me that I'll do what's needed if situations arise. Thank you all for all your kindness to me.

@San
"Maybe just maybe GGP had a very good idea of what Swag holds ?
Just my thoughts."

That's my thoughts, too. If I'm wrong, and if PRE is a bust, Hav is still going to make this a great investment over the next year, IMO. But yes, I think Scal is (at the very least) promising enough that they chose to make PRE the sweetener rather than Scal.

@Paddy "As the MRE moves to indicated & the growth drilling keeps increasing then the II demand should continue to increase."

100% agreed.

I know the Juri JV wasn't popular with a lot of people here but it was the sweetener for NCM that made the Hav JV and the loan agreement go. Now, when instos look at this, they see a derisked miner-to-be with financing in place rather than a flaky AIM explorer that will have to dilute to raise cash.

They also see other institutions buying. They see us in the Morgan Stanley index, which has a lot more credibility industry wide than the MVIS index which is owned by Van Eck. So we're in some portfolios at relatively low levels (that could be increased) and on a lot of other watchlists now of people who haven't bought yet but are paying attention now.

Every piece of good news, every good drilling report and certainly the transition to indicated resource and increases in the resource size, will draw their attention and give them a reason to buy.

There will still be tree shakes but it won't be like it used to be. There are too many IIs who won't be spooked, too many PIs who have seen it all before and will buy the dips.

Further, our BOD have proven they know what they are about. They knew what was needed to bring in the instos, and instead of being greedy and trying to hang onto all of PRE, the leveraged it to make Hav go. The CEO transition was always likely to hit the SP, but they finalised and released it during GDXJ buy-in week, which put a floor on the SP drop and quickly repaired it. They know what they are doing and they have the asset (and maybe multiple assets) to make it work. The instos like that, too.

The repeated 250K buys suggest a big buyer (or buyers) is already building a stake. The MMs dare not drop the price speculatively while that is happening -- they'd have to supply 250K at a low price with the hope that the tree shake would scare some sellers. They'd get badly burned. They'll drop the price if there is enough profit-taking to justify paying a lower price, but not in a speculative "I hope this will scare some people into selling." That isn't going to happen right now.

The "Report Post" box has a red header, for what it's worth. If anyone thinks anyone is trolling or being argumentative, you can always just report them for being disruptive.

One thread is already gone, seems like another could disappear as well. Why long-term members decide to turn themselves into trolls, I don't know.

"But I am still curious as to who and why a dated ( 24-12-2020 ) article appeared out of the blue ."

Since that website has done it on more than one occasion, I suspect it isn't accidental. They are releasing significantly old articles in an attempt to drive traffic to their website (and people here are falling for it, it appears).

It may be because they have malware on their site that they are hoping can be used to infect your device. More likely it is just trying to juice traffic numbers to increase their advertising revenue. But in neither case is it good. We'd all do well to flag up any links to that domain (latam-mining.com) and warn people not to click through.

Thanks for all the friendship here.

Thanks to Bamps and TomE for talking about this on the TW board and catching my attention. Thanks to NigeW who kept suggesting I invest here -- it was Nige who finally tipped the balance for my wife to take a flyer on GGP, which eventually led to a massive investment here for me. Thanks for those who have contributed solid research -- I've never experienced a board like this.

Thanks to all who've been kind to me recently. Thanks to those who, when we've disagreed, have done so decently and respectfully.

Thanks to those who endure my tendency to write long posts. Like this one, which is getting long for a Happy Christmas message.

Blessings to you all. May you find the true joy which endures through all circumstances and is not found in monetary wealth -- but hopefully, GGP will bring you a little wealth as well.

So you are alleging that the GGP board and/or employees have broken the laws on insider trading, by providing confidential information to specified market participants without notifying the market as a whole.

Evidence?

"lenz, I am making a generalised comment."

A good one, too.

I suppose the "I'm entitled to an opinion" comment pushes one of my buttons. Not every opinion deserves respect or even to be heard. But if I came on too strong I apologise.

Thanks, Mate. Doing ok.

The human creature tends to adjust, and find ways to cope.

@Spy, I agree -- if, as you say, it's a reasoned opinion.

Just saying "I'm entitled to an opinion", though, without any reason given, means you aren't entitled to respect, IMO.