Member Info for surprised

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1561695693462544387

broker note target sp 414p...and has since been revised up further

Broker note 5.7.22

''High production and cash. Another good well result.

Increasing production guidance. • 2Q22 production was ~14.5 mbbl/d. This is above the guidance of ~13.5 mbbl/d and our forecast of ~13 mbbl/d.

Total cash at the end of June was ~US$77 mm, including US$16.2 mm of restricted cash. Estimated accounts receivable and accounts payable at the quarter end were respectively ~US$88 mm (including ~US$54 mm of trueup revenue expected to be received in August) and US$50 mm. The cash position is well above our expectations of ~US$40 mm

Valuation
We continue to cautiously forecast only 16 mbbl/d production in 3Q22; which suggests some potential upside to our numbers.
We forecast that YE23 net cash will represent 80% of the current market cap.

The shares continue to offer deep value and growth.

We are increasing our target price from £1.20 per share to £1.30 per share as we incorporate the increased production and strong financial position''

sp drifted down from 340p+ at start of year against back drop of excellent figures & expect to comfortably beat expectations....

''full-year results are "expected to be comfortably ahead of market expectations and significantly ahead of [the] prior year."

The group anticipates sales and adjusted EBITDA to increase by 43% to £67.5mln and 24% to £19.5mln respectively for the full year ended 31 May 2022.

All three business divisions - business revenues, restructuring and tax sales - are expected to report "very strong performances," according to the provider of specialist advisory services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

K3 expects the business sales division to have a record year - up 34% - boosted by continued organic growth momentum enabled by its data-driven marketing technology platform.

"We have seen strong growth across all of our business divisions underpinned by the group's proprietary data-driven marketing platform and cross-referral network, which continues to drive competitive differentiation and deliver a strong pipeline of opportunities across the group," John Rigby, chief executive, said.

The group flagged it will also have a "robust balance sheet" with £12mln net cash - which will provide headroom to fund organic investment and acquisition opportunities.''

Well 11H was put on production June 30, 2022, and has averaged approximately 9,550 bopd over its first four producing days with an estimated payout in early August 2022;

Q2 2022 oil deliveries for export via Brazil were a record estimated 1.15 million barrels (12,600 bopd) and are expected to further increase in July 2022;

The latest four-day average production ending on July 3, 2022, was a record 22,376 bopd, with a peak production of 26,000 bopd. To accommodate sales availability, the Company expects to maintain production between 18,000 and 19,000 bopd with Brazilian exports increasing until the ongoing Northern Peruvian Pipeline ("ONP") repairs are completed, which is expected by September 2022;

The final Brent oil price for the 719,961 barrel lifting from Bayovar, announced on June 16, 2022, was $114/bbl using the average ICE Brent oil price for the final ten days of June 2022, inclusive of usual pricing adjustments, thereby finalizing true up revenue of approximately $53.9 million, which is expected to be received in August 2022;

Total cash at June 30, 2022 was $77.0 million, including $16.2 million of restricted cash. Estimated accounts receivable and accounts payable at the quarter end were approximately $88 and $50 million

"PetroTal has now achieved its seventh straight quarter of production growth and has delivered another production record, growing 21% in the quarter. 11H's early technical assessment estimates it will achieve an investment payout by early August 2022 at current Brent oil prices and, like our other wells, help deliver a robust free cash flow profile thereafter.

Given our strong liquidity profile we are actively assessing the Company's ability to put in place an accretive shareholder return policy upon payout of the bonds, which we look forward to communicating about later in 2022.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PTAL/q2-2022-operations-and-liquidity-update-087dr64ie1u04zk.html

'Malcys Blog
Yet more good news from PTAL this morning as the price adjustment revenue adds some $60m of gains. With all options open on delivery optionality with regard to Bretana oil the numbers at PetroTal certainly sparkle, as ive said before, Man I love this stock…''

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PTAL/q2-2022-operations-and-liquidity-update-087dr64ie1u04zk.html

July 5th 20222 update ..

Q2 2022 production averaged approximately 14,500 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), a new quarterly record, representing 7% above revised guidance provided on May 26, 2022, the seventh straight quarter of production growth;

· Well 11H was put on production June 30, 2022, and has averaged approximately 9,550 bopd over its first four producing days with an estimated payout in early August 2022;

· Well 11H was drilled and completed for an estimated $13.8 million, on budget, with total depth reaching approximately 4,300 meters inclusive of the horizontal section of 1,125 meters, and was completed with Autonomous Inflow Control Device ("AICD") valves;

· Q2 2022 oil deliveries for export via Brazil were a record estimated 1.15 million barrels (12,600 bopd) and are expected to further increase in July 2022;

· The latest four-day average production ending on July 3, 2022, was a record 22,376 bopd, with a peak production of 26,000 bopd. To accommodate sales availability, the Company expects to maintain production between 18,000 and 19,000 bopd with Brazilian exports increasing until the ongoing Northern Peruvian Pipeline ("ONP") repairs are completed, which is expected by September 2022;

· The final Brent oil price for the 719,961 barrel lifting from Bayovar, announced on June 16, 2022, was $114/bbl using the average ICE Brent oil price for the final ten days of June 2022, inclusive of usual pricing adjustments, thereby finalizing true up revenue of approximately $53.9 million, which is expected to be received in August 2022;

· Total cash at June 30, 2022 was $77.0 million, including $16.2 million of restricted cash. Estimated accounts receivable and accounts payable at the quarter end were approximately $88 and $50 million,

Q2 2022 was a strong operational period for the Company, having unconstrained production for the majority of the quarter. Production was supported with strong oil rates from wells 8H, 9H, and 10H, each flowing between 3,000 and 4,000 bopd with well 11H commencing production on June 30, 2022 at an initial four-day average of 9,550 bopd
The ONP is still undergoing maintenance, which Petroperu expects to have completed by September 2022

"PetroTal has now achieved its seventh straight quarter of production growth and has delivered another production record, growing 21% in the quarter. 11H's early technical assessment estimates it will achieve an investment payout by early August 2022 at current Brent oil prices and, like our other wells, help deliver a robust free cash flow profile thereafter. Given our strong liquidity profile we are actively assessing the Company's ability to put in place an accretive shareholder return policy upon payout of the bonds, which we look forward to communicating about later in 2022.

''PetroTal has announced the following sales related update.

720,000 barrels of oil under contract for export from Bayovar. Approximately 720,000 barrels of PetroTal’s Bretana oil has now been successfully tendered at the Bayovar port by Petroperu for the July lifting. Following an accelerated and temporary re-opening of section II of the Northern Peruvian Pipeline (“ONP”) which had been previously closed due to maintenance operations, Petroperu has been able to deliver a material amount of oil to Bayovar over recent weeks. This oil previously entered the ONP in 2020 and was part of the restructured oil sales arrangement with Petroperu, announced in late 2020, with the Company receiving approximately $45/bbl of value. PetroTal will receive the difference between this tender price and the restructured $45/bbl price in the contract, generating over $60 million of price adjustment revenue.

Section II of the ONP line temporarily online. Petroperu recently informed PetroTal that it was able to temporarily pump all the oil from Station 5 (approximately 550,000 barrels) to the Bayovar port. The ONP section II has an approximate capacity of 2.1 million barrels with an estimated 82% being Bretana oil. Section I of the line between pump stations 1 and 5 remains closed due a maintenance delay from ongoing social protests in one community near pump station 1.

Manuel Pablo Zuniga-Pflucker, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented

“We applaud Petroperu’s efforts to resume partial pipeline operations in a safe and reliable way. The true up revenue to be received from this tender was previously anticipated in Q4 2022 and will provide assurance that we can execute our shareholder strategy on time and as indicated in our corporate presentation.”

Yet more good news from PTAL this morning as the price adjustment revenue adds some $60m of gains. With all options open on delivery optionality with regard to Bretana oil the numbers at PetroTal certainly sparkle, as ive said before, Man I love this stock…''

Malcys Blog 16 June 2022

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1560186712462172163
added to holding

https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/russian-state-energy-giant-gazprom-says-european-natural-gas-prices-could-climb-by-another-60-this-winter/articleshow/93612447.cms

Russian state-energy giant Gazprom says European natural-gas prices could climb by another 60% this winter

the advertised spread is not the real spread ....231.6p to sell on bid live prices.....

spread tigtening on slowly increasing volume....230.75p sell bid now....besides that the sp drift down against the backdrop of excellent figures as detailed below and the positive outlook provides a very decent opportunity imo :-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1559858288786870282

broker has 130p target

The Company expects to maintain production between 18,000 and 19,000 bbl/d with Brazilian exports increasing until the ongoing ONP repairs are completed, which is expected by September 2022. This is again above the guidance of 16.6 mbbl/d for 3Q22 and our forecast of 16 mbbl/d. • The shares continue to offer deep value and growth. We are increasing our target price from £1.20 per share to £1.30 per share as we incorporate the increased production and strong financial position

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1559849252762918913

yet to make a move (amazingly) increased production, excellent receivables making strong free cash flow Overall production planning for this quarter is expected to be around 18-19000 b/d which is now guidance, but with plenty of upside.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/07/oil-price-petrotal-united-oil-gas-and-finally/

“PetroTal has now achieved its seventh straight quarter of production growth and has delivered another production record, growing 21% in the quarter. 11H’s early technical assessment estimates it will achieve an investment payout by early August 2022 at current Brent oil prices and, like our other wells, help deliver a robust free cash flow profile thereafter. Given our strong liquidity profile we are actively assessing the Company’s ability to put in place an accretive shareholder return policy upon payout of the bonds, which we look forward to communicating about later in 2022. We are also very excited about the agreement to include our social trust initiative into the Block 95 petroleum license, thereby accepting the concept into rule of law.”

PetroTal just continues to deliver quarter after quarter and this is no exception. Average 2Q production was 14,500 b/d, itself some 7% above guidance and the 7th straight quarter of growth and with unconstrained production for the majority of the quarter.

The Brazil route for oil exports continues to rise until the ONP repairs are complete, expected around September of this year. The last lifting from Bayovar was priced at $114/bbl finalising true up revenue of approximately $53.9 million contributing to the cash total which was $77m at June 30th and as they continue to pay down debt shareholders can look forward to being treated to distributions as early as later this year.

With so many pluses in this announcement, increased production, excellent receivables making strong free cash flow leading to debt paydown and subsequent distributions PetroTal has yet again stamped its quality on the sector.

I said a little while ago that an increase in TP was on the cards, well I’m raising that to 125p today but have a feeling that it won’t be long before I do it again…

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1559843051551555584

a 'no reason' drop against backdrop of excellent results and growing business .Bango's revenues are typically weighted 40:60 H1:H2, outlook points to Bango comfortably meeting FY22...broker has 260p target

https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1559518055654338563

Gazprom does not rule out that gas prices in Europe in winter may rise above the record-breaking figure $4,000 per 1,000 cubic meters, the holding said

https://tass.com/economy/1494233?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=smm_social_share

https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1559512383311183873

European natural gas prices exploding higher this morning

https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1/status/1559525733176942594
Natural Gas is approaching its 14 year high this morning, up to $9.26

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1559490241593049090

Gross profit grew by 16.5% to £13.2m (FY21: £11.3m). Adjusted EBITDA1 in the Year grew by 16.3% to £10.3m (FY21: £8.8m). Fnx continues to generate strong underlying cash flows, will pay a final dividend in November 2022.

broker target 230p

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1559451872037052417

12% increase in revenue to £127.4 million (2021: £113.7 million).· 18% gross margin (2021: 18.3%).· 24% increase in underlying EBITDA to £6.2 million, Cash as at 31 March 2022 of £15.3 m....IC & broker have sp target 70p+

The NHS is under even more stress than usual and is likely to remain so
for several years due to the treatment backlog built up over
the pandemic, which underpins Totally’s growth opportunity.
Its 111 service and Urgent Care centres relieve pressure in
primary healthcare provision, while the main growth driver is
likely to be the evolving Insourcing business. This is where
the NHS commissions Totally to carry out diagnostic and
surgical procedures using NHS facilities. The division grew
to £10m revenue in the year to March from just £3m the prior
year. Margins were lower due to more diagnostic procedures
in the mix, but CEO Wendy Lawrence told us margins should
improve this year. There will also be a significant boost from
the Pioneer acquisition which will add over £5m revenue and
has a strong profile within the NHS.
The group also has a high degree of visibility from existing
multi-year contracts. Lawrence said she is also seeing a lot
more contract extensions, rather than having to re-tender
when a contract nears expiry. Management is focused
on high-quality provision and ensuring the systems and
processes are in place to ensure contracts are managed
effectively – which is crucial in the context of a business
where revenue has doubled in four years. Cheap on a current
year p/e ......

technically oversold, fundamentally undervalued, profitable, cash in hand and outlook states 'set to beat expectations', broker has 400p+ target

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1558074322945773569

sp drifted down from over 200p against the backdrop of record revenue etc..... value gap here now should be closed (sp back to 200p+) here as UPGS continue to show they are a well run business :-)