Member Info for surprised

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1597511444987539457

Over the last 40 hours, the UK wind power industry has gone from producing 16.4 GW to 0.4 GW
UK power markets are tight, hence large increase in gas demand & jump in gas price yesterday...winter's coming

ok then ...it was very bad for a few hours yesterday and then it'll be vey good when the oil flows today as usual when the authorities step in again ...the ongoing situation that ptal have been dealing with for over two years and still been very profitable

in addition re the bond repayment, ptal have quite a cash pile, hence the return of capital to shareholders envisaged shortly too.

with respect Trueinvest it's the norm and part of the on going dispute, that's been on going for ages. equally 'determined government intervention is expected to restore order and peace in the only oil-producing district of Loreto, which is one of the strongholds of the national oil industry.' is expected today to get the oil flowing and restore order as the locals also want as ptal are happy to pay into the local fund, providing no disruption to oil deliveries.

'..... Aidecobap maintains a "territorial control" in the Puinahua Canal that puts at risk the normal supply of diesel that PetroTal donates for the generation of energy that serves to bring the water and electricity service to Brittany
Despite the fact that the Government has called a new meeting of the so-called Block 95 Technical Committee for the fortnight of December, Aidecobap has continued with its forceful measures that violate the human rights of Brazilian citizens and the population of the Puinahua district. .

At press time, determined government intervention is expected to restore order and peace in the only oil-producing district of Loreto, which is one of the strongholds of the national oil industry.

The company has repeatedly stated its willingness to sign the addendum to the Lot 95 contract, which formally creates the Puinahua District Development Fund, but they request that the commitment to make the contributions be included in it, which is equivalent to 2.5% of the value of its controlled production – as long as the operation of Block 95 and the transport of its production in Puinahua are not paralyzed due to social conflicts.'

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1597259551551926273

While oil prices plunge, keep an eye on electricity markets in the UK and France today.

A tight day with minimum wind this evening, which is going to require a big gas burn to compensate.

UK day-ahead baseload power prices jumped >£300 per MWh. And evening peak load hit £1,000.

Broker note out confirming....'The receipt of the tax rebate is in line with our expectations for a A$2m rebate to be received before the calendar year end. The confirmation of the receipt and quantum are reassuring and should help provide comfort that the company is fully funded to execute on its business plan, which is expected to see the company reach EBITDA profitability this year, which is a key value inflection point.
With a growing product portfolio, and upside left in a number of areas such as litigation and new licensees, we continue to believe CAP-XX is significantly undervalued and iterate our Buy recommendation and 14p DCF based valuation.'

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1595120214663839744

Next crisis in sight ...EU bidding against US and others for supply.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-22/shortage-looms-for-diesel-world-s-most-crucial-fuel?leadSource=uverify%20wall

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1595117212855308288

First Shell, now Equinor

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/equinor-evaluating-impact-britains-windfall-tax-projects-2022-11-22/

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1594743914505846799

Saudi Arabia says it is not discussing 500k b/d oil output hike. MORE IMPORTANTLY, it hints it's ready to cut:

"... if there is a need to take further measures by **reducing production** to balance supply and demand, we always remain ready to intervene"

Business leaders have called on Rishi Sunak to move faster to outline plans to help stimulate investment and economic growth, with Shell suggesting that its ambitions to invest £25 billion in the UK were under review unless changes were made to the windfall tax.
..the need for the tax to reflect the movements, both higher and lower, in oil and gas prices in the markets.

“The reality is just like all of us, when you tax more you’re going to have less disposable income in your pocket, less to invest, and we laid out the pathway for £25 billion of investment, which is in fact, just to put it into context, far more than the cash that we generate in the UK..

.“It is a challenge and we will be working in consulting with the government on hopefully a few modifications. It would certainly be helped if there was a price condition associated with the construct to allow a more modelling predictability.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-need-your-plans-for-growth-urgently-business-leaders-tell-pm-lsd7fkz55

;-)

Gas ....

Gax getting tighter by the day, despite current price.....competition globally is increasing, Europe/UK energy policies (they don't have one!) failing to deal with the issue of supply. WFT not the most encouraging initiative for investment in high risk projects and increasing supply , however, the physical demand for gas over coming years is now really increasing. Gs prices only going one way ...

https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1594603725452365824

breaking news today - Qatar and China sign one of the BIGGEST LNG deals in the history of the industry
Qatar will supply China with 4 million tons/year of LNG from 2026 for 27 years

That heaps a TON of pressure on Europe, which has failed to sign a deal w/ Qatar

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1594591302313803776

There are no long-term LNG contracts available before 2026...LNG intensifies as supply is "SOLD OUT" for years,
Europe rushes to replace Russian pipeline gas with LNG, further adding to shortages

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-21/global-lng-supplies-are-sold-out-for-years-top-importer-warns

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1594419793687453700

COP27 conclusion: attempts to have nations agree to peak global emissions by 2025 or a phase-down of fossil fuels, failed

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1594400412630929408

It appears even at COP27 (whisper it) gas is finally recognised by many to be an essential primary fuel.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1594285015571075073

The COP27 political-policy text (aka, “cover”) is full of diplomatic language gymnastics. Note, for example, the reference to “low-emission” energy to mean gas and nuclear (and probably carbon-captured oil)

Early attempts to call for a phase down of fossil fuel *consumption* were killed .

''This 80% Investment Allowance meant businesses would get a £91.25 tax saving for every £100 they invest – providing them with an additional incentive to invest. This nearly doubled the tax relief available and means the more investment a firm makes, the less tax they will pay.
Under the 35% levy rate, the government is reducing the rate of the allowance to 29% which, due to the higher rate, will broadly maintain the existing cash value of the allowance.
This means business will be able to claim £91.40 in tax relief for every £100 invested rather than the previous £91.25''

SQZ still ideal position to generate very healthy profits etc .

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1593329187389149189

Blackrock added £3m before todays widely known WFT extension, #SQZ have options (hedging/investment offset etc) gas prices expected to stay high for next year, so still great cash flow & profit making business, no debt and a protected cash pile free of tax

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1593203324974678022

'markdown in the shares is short sighted in the extreme & one that offers an excellent buying opportunity, it should be reversed when the sheer value, size and margins of the business become apparent. target price 150p'

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/11/flash-blog-petrotal-jadestone/

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1593329187389149189

Blackrock added £3m before todays widely known WFT extension, SQZ have options (hedging/investment offset etc) gas prices expected to stay high for next year, so still great cash flow & profit making business, no debt and a protected cash pile free of tax