Member Info for surprised

Excellent news from PTAL and they will see production get back to normal quickly as they can now use barge transportation to and from the company’s operating area. 

 The shares are up some 10% as 41p but I havent changed my L/T share price target of 150p there is still a huge amount of upside.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/12/oil-price-petrotal-kistos-hunting-getech-and-finally/

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1603060808556109824

Peak Oil Demand Is Nowhere in Sight
The International Energy Agency says consumption will climb to a record 104 million barrels a day late next year.

:-)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-14/peak-oil-demand-is-nowhere-in-sight?sref=f2E6A62x

 Due an update soon ....

Excellent well 13H results. Well 13H successfully tested at over 8,000 bopd during its first week of production and has averaged approximately 6,200 bopd month to date ending November 14, 2022, which was slightly constrained during this period. At its current trend and assuming a $55/bbl netback, the well is on track to payout within 60 days. In addition, the technical team encountered the producing formation five meters higher near the end of the horizontal section of the well possibly increasing future oil in place and reserve estimates.

Well 12H
PetroTal continues its active drilling program to further increase its low cost, high margin production at Bretana. On October 16, 2022, the Company commenced drilling well 12H and an estimated completion in mid-December 2022.

Brazil export route re-opened • The Asociacion Indigena de Desarrollo y Conservacion de Bajo Puinahua has removed the river blockade to allow oil barge transportation access in and out of the PetroTal’s operating area.
With the reopening of the river, the Brazilian export route is now available. • The removing of the blockade has taken place earlier than we expected (YE22). Production ramp up will commence immediately over the next few days and is expected to reach ~18,000 bbl/d for the remainder of December

. • Inclusive of social downtime since late November, the company estimates 4Q22 oil production levels to average between 8,500 and 9,500 bbl/d. This is above our expectations of 7,000 bbl/d.

• PetroTal continues to offer value, cashflow growth and reserves upside. We re-iterate our target price of £1.30 per share.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1603095200951328768

Reality hitting home .....

'We recognize fossil fuels will be around for a long time, Fossil fuel production will need to increase in the near future to meet growing demand, including a shortage of diesel '

(Bloomberg) -- Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm extended an olive branch to the oil and gas industry, telling executives at a meeting in Washington that she recognizes fossil fuels will be around for a long time, even as the Biden administration works to transition away from them to cleaner alternatives.

“We are eager to work with you,” she said at the Wednesday meeting of the National Petroleum Council, an outside federal advisory group that includes executives from Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc. “Moving too fast could have unintended consequences that hurt people, cause backlash.”

Her remarks come at the end of year that’s seen a deterioration in the relationship between the industry and the White House. Biden has accused fossil fuel companies of price gouging and has weighed additional taxes on their profits as well as curbs on exports of refined oil products.

Granholm nodded to that friction Wednesday, beginning her remarks by acknowledging the “elephant in the room” and that the administration has “butted heads” with industry. Fossil fuel production will need to increase in the near future to meet growing demand, including a shortage of diesel in the Northeast US, she said.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1602592551671840769

new product launch 'These coin cells are ubiquitous with http://market.us estimating the global coin cell market was worth around $4.2bn in 2022'.....broker reiterates 14p target

It is positive to see the CAP-XX product range grow again into another mass market application. These coin cells are ubiquitous with market.us estimating the global coin cell market was worth around $4.2bn in 2022.
With such a large market, the opportunity for niches where the additional reliability of the CAP-XX supercapacitor version are important selling points, will still be large and should in time lead to significant sales from this product alone.

For example the market for RTC battery backup in PC/laptops alone is around 0.5bn units pa. We therefore continue to highlight the transformation of the company’s product offering over the last year as a major leading indicator for value creation with its products selling into the growing markets of Internet of Things and motive electrification amongst others.

We iterate our Buy recommendation and 14p DCF based valuation

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1602361700539404293

Make that now £6,000 per MWh

I believe that's both a UK record for a gas-fired power plant and an absolute record for the UK balancing market. Emergency actions via interconnectors have cleared at higher prices.

Vitol is selling power equal to VoLL --- quite a move!!!!

Shore Capital view - ''At 223 p and 6 . 9 x EV/EBITDA for FY22F ( modest and attractive on both 6 . 6 x PER), the prevailing valuation appears extremely a relative, historical and absolute basis , reflecting tough market conditions for tech stocks generally. The recent interim results reiterated the full year outlook, implying 117% pro forma adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint of the guidance range, and the mediumterm growth potential for Kape remains high (including broader scope for acquisition opportunities following on from the $222.5m placing completed in September 2022). We believe earnings risk is low, and risk/reward is materially mispriced''

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1602319098557390853

Eyewatering prices in the UK power balancing market (where National Grid ESO buys electricity at short notice to fine-tune supply and demand)

Commodity trader Vitol is selling power from one of its gas-fired plants at >£5,000 per MWh -- among the highest prices I have ever seen

-------------------------------

UK energy regulator Ofgem has been worried for the last year about sky high prices in the balancing market. What's happening today is going to reinforce those concerns. See the letter from Ofgem in Dec 2021 to all market participants about it....before the Russian moves into Ukraine !

Totally has secured a new contract worth up to £66m over eight years, via retender, to deliver two urgent treatment centres (UTCs) in Bromley, South East London. We believe this is a positive development by securing a new contract on better terms to replace the existing provision from 1 April 2023, ( It replaces the existing contract with improved terms on both the service specification and financial model ) while it extends the group's longterm relationship with the NHS South East London Clinical Commissioning Group....

Totally has also confirmed that Pioneer has performed ahead of expectations since it was acquired on 7 March 2022.....

We make a minor adjustment to our forecasts to reflect a related completion adjustment which results in a net cash (pre-leases) forecast of £10.2m for FY23E (-2.5%).

We reiterate our BUY rating and 70p target price, believing that Totally remains well-placed to secure future growth by focussing on areas where demand for healthcare is outstripping supply

Totally trades on FY24E P/E of 7.7x and EV/EBITDA of 5.1x, which we consider to be too cheap given our double-digit growth expectations and an increasingly positive demand backdrop, BUY rating and 70p target price,
.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1602239651120660480

astonishingly still under 350p+ and amazingly not above 300p....no idea how/on what market is pricing this currently, it ain't on the usual metrics of cash flow, profits, no debt, cash in bank, future earnings etc......

''PetroTal and Petroperu have finalized an agreement for the repayment of US$64 mm in true up revenue owed to PetroTal by Petroperu. On 1 December, PetroTal has received US$10.9 mm as part of a schedule of payments, which is expected to be completed by August 2023.
• Indigenous communities have taken control of the pathway of the Amazon river, preventing export to Brazil. PetroTal has reduced production to between 4,500 bbl/d and 5,000 bbl/d since 30 November to manage storage levels and will need to further reduce production levels should the blockade persist as the Northern Peruvian Pipeline remains unavailable due to ongoing repairs.

For the time being and given previous similar situations, we are assuming that the Brazil export route will be restored by the end of the month.

• PetroTal continues to be a value name also offering cashflow growth and reserves upside.

Valuation
While the latest blockade is frustrating, we view the agreement with Petroperu to recover the US$64 mm owed to PetroTal as very good news. It represents ~15% of the company’s current market cap. ..

....We have left our production forecast for 2023 onwards unchanged.

We re-iterate our target price of £1.30 per share.''

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1602200212642369546

Totally plc (AIM: TLY), a leading provider of frontline healthcare services, corporate fitness and wellbeing services across the UK and Ireland, has secured a new contract, worth up to c. £66 million, for the provision of two urgent treatment centres ("UTC") in Bromley, South East London

Shell has urged Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, to implement a “price floor” on the energy profits levy....

....producers who met Jeremy Hunt in Edinburgh today and urged him to implement a “price floor” on the energy profits levy so that it ceases to apply if oil and gas prices drop.

Deirdre Michie, chief executive of the oil lobby group Offshore Energies UK, said: “The chancellor committed to reflect further on [industry] proposals, including removing the windfall tax when oil and gas prices fall back to normal levels.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/shells-predicts-earlier-gas-price-drop-and-urges-windfall-tax-rethink-qzchrtqdg

Well that's a mixed bag RNS (it is Peru)

Very good news- PetroTal and Petroperu have finalized an agreement outlining the repayment terms of the $64 million in true up revenue owed to the Company ....
On December 1, 2022, the Company received $10.9 million from Petroperu as part of a schedule of payments.

Good news - the Company has been producing nearly 14,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd"), reaching 18,000 bopd recently.

Not so good - As a result of the river blockade, PetroTal has reduced production to between 4,500 bopd and 5,000 bopd since November 30, 2022, to manage storage levels (9 days reduced)

the on going - "We are committed to ensuring that the proposed 2.5% Trust Fund is properly implemented so it may provide critical long-term funding to all the Puinahua District communities. We are also pleased to conclude our true up payment agreement with Petroperu and will continue to communicate with them in good faith regarding the additional factoring amounts owed for Q1 2022 oil deliveries into the ONP and the reopening of the pipeline when appropriate repairs are concluded." 

indeed, broker has fair value at 410p

Hi Compooter, you are 100% correct in that there appears no rational explanation for the governments actions, simply none.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1600893088381435904

dropped to 272p on open ??(thank you added to holding) against a back drop of increased demand, increased gas prices 365 now 390, increased cash pile and increased profits. sp still under 300p & imo should be 400p+ and rising on fundamentals/demand etc.

350p takeover offer :-)