RE: Another Outstanding Update/RNS19 Jan 2023 10:07
Broker note out....
2022 was a particularly strong year, and the
2023 guidance range remains relatively wide this early in the year
As expected, the combination of strong ongoing production and oil and gas prices, alongside the
deferral of some 2022 CAPEX into 2023, has driven a strong end 2022 net debt number.
Importantly, Harbour continues to guide that it expects to be net debt free during 2023, which
we would expect to occur during H2.
n terms of shareholder returns, the ongoing US$100m buyback was 57% complete as of the
end of 2022, so remains ongoing. Otherwise, the statement emphasises that Harbour
maintains significant flexibility for both acquisitions and further shareholder returns. The
existing US$200m dividend level is also mentioned, which we would take to imply that this is
not expected to increase, with any additional returns in the form of buybacks or, potentially,
special dividends.
Operationally, development of Talbot in the UK and Tuna in Indonesia are both being
progressed, as is development of Zama in Mexico, where interaction with Pemex has been
good, and development plans are being finalised. There is also now an extensive Indonesia
drilling programme in 2023, with two Timpan appraisal wells and a separate exploration well,
all of which provides news flow.
We remain positive on Harbour, particularly in what is likely to be a rising oil and gas price environment in 2023,
Harbour has a strong asset position in the UK North Sea, with substantial
production and ongoing near field development opportunities to support this going forward.
The cash generated supports this ongoing CAPEX programme, alongside underpinning
returns to shareholders. The company remains conservative with its balance sheet,
conserving cash that it could then deploy into a new growth region (likely, in our view,
including some element of acquisition and/or farm ins). We will need to wait for further news
as to where this might be, but the company has existing footholds in Southeast Asia and
Mexico (via Zama), possibly providing a clue here. Shareholder returns have also been
increased via the US$400m 2022 buyback programme, and could always be further increased
in favour of acquisitions. In our view, Harbour’s existing position is very attractive, particularly
if its hedges roll off but oil and gas prices remain high. Increasing shareholder returns have
been established, though growth potential beyond existing production levels currently
remains unclear. Overall, in a rising oil and gas pricing environment, we have a positive
outlook for the shares.