Member Info for surprised

I t may not feel like it currently whilst the deal is being finalised, however, SQZ is in the top 20 upgrades listed in IC

Upgrade and downgrade tables are based on changes made by brokers over the last month to their consensus forecast earnings for the year ahead. Comparisons are made between forecasts for the same 12 month period, which run from the date given on the table.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts

Cenkos note...

The product announced today is in a class of its own and with very significant potential both in applications where it eliminates batteries, but also where it mates directly to a ubiquitous 3V coin cell battery, dramatically extending the life and capabilities of the coin cell. As with all new electronic component products, it will take time for the supercapacitor to get designed into end products and for volumes to ramp-up. However, we understand samples have already been sent to select customers and the potential of this product is exciting. In the near-term, whilst samples are being priced from $4.95 each, we expect volume orders will be at lower prices, and with a manufacturing capacity of 30-40,000 units per month, this product has the potential to deliver revenues over $1m per annum. In the medium- to longer-term, the
potential of this product is for sales of many millions of units per annum. This new product launch continues CAP-XX’s strategy of ongoing product development activities to address developments in the energy storage devices market with the
past two years seeing a dramatic increase in the size and scope of CAP-XX’s product portfolio, which we believe will drive significant value for shareholders over the medium- to long-term. ..........

that is a good product launch, at last, and will no doubt have global appeal and very much add to the income stream ....

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1624085597609512961

Blackrock up their holding too....

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/holdings-in-company-ygvudi7nlyud3ev.html

Oil trades higher
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/brent-oil-jumps-above-85-after-russia-says-it-plans-output-cut?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Oil trading higher after Russia said it plans to cut March 2023 production by 500,000 barrels a day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/brent-oil-jumps-above-85-after-russia-says-it-plans-output-cut?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Oil trading higher after Russia said it plans to cut March 2023 production by 500,000 barrels a day.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1622857636839391233

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-face-serious-supply-problem-2024-production-capacity-runs-out-goldman-warns

...with sanctions likely to cause Russian oil exports to drop and Chinese demand expected to recover as the country ends its Covid Zero policy, prices will rise above $100 from their current level of around $80. Meanwhile, doubling down on his key long-term thesis, Currie said that a lack of spending in the industry on production needed to meet demand will also be a driver of higher prices, and this lack of capacity may become a big issue by 2024

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1622857636839391233

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-face-serious-supply-problem-2024-production-capacity-runs-out-goldman-warns

10.02.23
Oil trading higher after Russia said it plans to cut March 2023 production by 500,000 barrels a day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/brent-oil-jumps-above-85-after-russia-says-it-plans-output-cut?leadSource=uverify%20wall

A structural growth stock whose sell-off is overdone.....BUY

Spirent Communications is poised to profit from global 5G infrastructure spending, and its shares’ recent drop offers a good entry point.

• Profiting from growth in 5G
• Cheaper than US peers
• Strong balance sheet
• Excellent track record
• Signs of slowing growth
• Risk of sector consolidation

.....This drop seems like an overreaction. Spirent’s management used the same trading update to state that results were in line with market expectations, to reaffirm the strength of the order book and reiterate plans to keep investing in its technology across the portfolio. Given that orders were already at record levels, confirmation that orders climbed 7 per cent in 2022 (from a base of £270mn at the end of 2021) suggests customer momentum didn’t exactly evaporate in the final quarter.............

.......As infrastructure investment continues to increase, so will Spirent’s profit growth

https://pdfs.investorschronicle.co.uk/IC_100223.pdf

thanks Radium, if any business can't do anything they don't have a business and this would be the same for the stocks you are invested in...nothing to suggest TLY have any of these issues and at 24p as stated imo risk v reward is skewed to the upside..thanks for keeping the bb active and I appreciate you have no interest in TLY yourself from an investing point, however, your posts from others are always helpful and thanks for taking the time.

At current price it looks like 'more than bad news' is priced in, hence why I added at 24p. The drop from 36p is a major move/drop based on the ending of the contract and expected. Markets are spooked easily and importantly TLY are seeking to ensure contracts are in place where margins are increased, revenue for the sake of revenue as stated by the ceo is no use, it's about driving profitable services going forward and simply renewing contracts on poor terms is of no benefit.

At current sp level the risk/ reward looks very favourable to me as the markets have acted dramatically and priced in 'who knows what ?' so the risk aspect is already greatly reduced down here and if TLY secure the next contract anytime soon I'm sure the reward aspect will quickly be reflected in a fast rising sp....there's risk in any share purchase, however, the price at 24p potentially leaves a large upside with any downside appearing to be already priced in....

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1623348532559093765

*BP CEO: OIL STOCKPILES ARE LOW, SPARE CAPACITY TIGHT

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/demand-for-oil-to-hit-an-all-time-high-says-energy-agency-wtr8lvmk2

Global oil demand will hit a record high this year, driven by the lifting of Covid restrictions in China and threatening a supply shortage, the International Energy Agency has predicted.

The agency said that oil supply from the Opec+ alliance was expected to decline owing to lower output from Russia as sanctions take effect.

“Are we going to run out of spare oil production capacity? Potentially by 2024 you start to have a serious problem.”

As Bloomberg also notes, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also used remarks at the Riyadh conference on Saturday to decry the lack of investment in refining capacity that has left the world undersupplied

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-face-serious-supply-problem-2024-production-capacity-runs-out-goldman-warns

Do your worst radium, lol...the dates are clear and in the links etc......good luck with your own investments

with respect NewKTOB most of the larger holders voted for the deal and the addition of oil is seen by the majority to be a benefit. I understand the frustrations of some, however, we are where we are, Oil is expected to maintain and grow in value, be in short supply and Gas has fallen , however, also expected to rally later when supply shortages become apparent again, The business will benefit imo and others on the diversification to Oil and with the offset of tax losses value will be far greater than the current sp level. That's the judgement of the SQZ board, the larger holders and others and yes analysts so value closer to 400p+ and beyond on further aquisitions etc. It's a bigger,more diverse business, with greater assets and maybe one step back for three forwards...we all have different takes, it's what makes a markets, however, we're all in it and hopefully will benefit over coming months .

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1623256990968324098

added at 24p last week following the fall from 36p . HSJ article did some damage to sp on end of contract, however, #TLY secured a £10m contract on 16.1.23 and have stated they seek contracts with decent margins rather than revenue for the sake of...

Broker report

Totally has announced a new £10m per annum contract to provide national contingency support for NHS 111, including additional call handling and clinical capacity in urgent care to help alleviate pressures on local services, as required. The contract, which has been awarded to Vocare directly by NHS England will commence from 1 March 2023, initially for a period of one year with an option to extend for a further year.
We believe this award provides strong evidence that Totally is well-placed to support the NHS as it seeks to meet rising demand for primary care and reduce A&E patient waiting times. The group’s long-term relationships with NHS commissioners as well as its proven experience in providing resilient, responsive and high-quality regional NHS 111
services when under increasing pressure has, in our view, proven to be a decisive factor.
With all-party political support now in place to increasingly engage with independent care providers to help ease the burden on the NHS, we believe further new business opportunities are likely to emerge for Totally across both primary and secondary care.
By focussing on areas where demand for healthcare exceeds supply, this could be via tender, framework agreements, service resilience and contract extensions that have the potential to drive recurring revenues from multi-year contracts, improve margins and secure further growth.

Shares look too cheap Totally trades on a March 2024E P/E of 8.0x and EV/EBITDA of 5.4x. In our view, this looks too cheap considering our expectations of double-digit profit growth..highly repeatable revenue streams and an increasingly positive
demand backdrop. 70p target price

https://*********************/companies/uk/medical-equipment-services/totally-plc/research/canaccord-genuity/flash-10m-p-a-contract-awarded-by-nhs-england/85_b1ac523d-add8-4593-93b8-2a99642da41b

nearly 40p less.....that should have read...

today's sp currently early 40p less than the initial figures of 278p agreed in the terms of the deal.....the 278p price was set with a view to adding further value and growth , fair value from brokers suggests closer to 400p+ and many analysts suggest 350p+ on completion of the deal in a few weeks.....241p today may appear very cheap in the rear view in a week or two :-)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/serica-deal-with-tailwind-energy-will-almost-double-its-oil-output-jht7qtsvr

Serica deal with Tailwind Energy will almost double its oil output

It pointed out that net production in January across both companies was equivalent to 43,300 barrels a day. That included Serica’s output being limited after a gas compressor on one of its fields required maintenance work, although that has now been completed.

Aim-listed Serica, which has its operations base in Aberdeen, already produces about five per cent of the UK’s gas from its interests in the Bruce, Keith, Rhum, Columbus and Erskine fields in the North Sea.

Before Christmas it announced the Tailwind proposed takeover in an offer that was a mix of shares and cash and valued the company at about £644 million, including debt.

Those sums were based on Serica’s 278p closing price on December 19 while yesterday the shares closed down by 1½p, or 0.6 per cent, at 238½p.

Serica believes the combination can help it offset about £470 million of tax, put more oil into its production base — currently mainly gas — and extend its reserves with production maintained at more than 40,000 barrels a day through to the end of 2025.

Mitch Flegg, Serica chief executive, said: “The production performance of both the Serica and Tailwind portfolios has remained strong despite some extremely challenging weather conditions during January.”

Ashley Kelty, at Panmure Gordon, described it as “an encouraging update” and suggested the acquisition will make Serica “a materially larger business and with a much wider portfolio to deliver future growth”.

A good ops update from Serica where the Tailwind deal is still in the process of completing but indications are that few obstacles are in the way. With SQZ confirming FY 2022 production of 26,182 boe/d and guidance for this year is now, with Tailwind contribution is 40-47 Boe/d and of course hoping that GE-04 might be doing 8/- boe/d by this month.

Overall I think that all is going well at Serica and assuming regulation stuff like the Bruce work is completed with a minimum of fuss then a bigger, better and more diverse Serica looks like a very solid investment. A certainty in the Bucket List and looking pretty cheap I think that management just need to be perfect operationally and get the story out to the market as soon as Tailwind deal completes.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/02/oil-price-serica-gkp-longboat-predator-and-finally/