Member Info for surprised

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1642547391080419331

Oil price being defended....

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/saudi-arabia-makes-voluntary-cut-500000-barrels-day-may

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1642436653544353792

'The oil and gas wft is being redrawn less than a year after it came in shows how flawed it was.
The government is still haggling over the windfall tax with operators, rejiging the tax with price floors.
Harbour have warned they will cut UK investment'

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/never-mind-inflation-reduction-we-need-a-tax-simplification-act-xrfz9jhk8

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1642436653544353792

The oil and gas wft is being redrawn less than a year after it came in shows how flawed it was.
The government is still haggling over the windfall tax with operators, rejiging the tax with price floors.
Harbour have warned they will cut UK investment'

Few details yet, more expected later today....

Energy security day, in which a whole host of energy policies and strategy updates were announced for Track 1’ list of projects.
Those that did make the list saw a muted reaction on Thursday. BP (BP.) will be a key player across both the Teesside projects that made the list, while further down the supply chain hydrogen-exposed firms did well – Ceres Power (CWR) and ITM Power (ITM) were up around 7 per cent each. The carbon capture and hydrogen focus was held up as a positive by most commentators

https://twitter.com/IChronicle/status/1641405504541827074

PT 3
Assuming 50% WI and 80% drilling success, Osheki
Kametza could produce ~35 mbbl/d production et to Petrotal in 2031. We
are not including this prospect in our valuation yet.
We forecast that the company will generate ~US$125 mm free cash flow including the payment
of receivables by Petroperu in 2023 (pre capital return) and ~US$160 mm
in 2024

pt 2
Comparing dividend yield across the sector

PetroTal’s dividend yield of ~13% is one of the highest of the sector. Only
Diversified Energy and Ithaca Energy (21%) offer a higher yield (~15% and
~21% respectively) with Genel Energy and Gulf Keystone Petroleum
offering ~13% (based on declared dividends so far in 2023 for Gulf
Keystone). These two names have assets in Kurdistan and with the export
pipeline to Turkey now shut-in and renewed challenges in collecting
payments for produced oil, these levels might not be sustainable. The
other highest dividend payers (Alvopetro Energy, Tethys Oil, Aker BP,
Canacol Energy, Energean, Serica Energy, Harbour Energy and Panoro
Energy) offer annual dividend yield of 7-11% while Parex Resources
(Colombia)’ yield is only ~3.7% and Jadestone Energy (Thailand, Malaysia
and Australia), ~2.3% (expected). PetroTal’s proposed dividend compares
favourably with the European super majors having a dividend yield of ~3-
4%

Production continues to be very high with 20,500 bbl/d production to
date during March.
• PetroTal expects to sell >19 mbbl/d through Brazil in March and >18
mbb/d in April. This would be the highest level achieved though that
route. This is important because the net backs through Brazil are
higher than through the ONP.
• PetroTal has re-iterated its FY23 production guidance of 14-15 mbbl/d.
There is however an upside case of 17 mbbl/d for 2H23 depending on
river levels. We only assume 14.9 mbbl/d in 2H23.
• With the bond now fully repaid, PetroTal is launching a generous
capital return programme with a share buyback programme for up to
10% of the share capital over a period of 12 months from 2Q23 and a
US$0.015 per share quarterly dividend. On an annualized basis, this
represents ~13% dividend yield, one of the highest in the sector.
• We re-iterate our target price of £1.50 per share

lol..Rachel Reeves has just said Labour cannot commit to a freeze on council tax by using WFT as they would have to look at the uk finances at the time, their statement today was meant to be what they would do if they were in government today ! .. , face palm

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1641361787739160578

Rishi Sunak and Grant Shapps, the Energy Security minister, are visiting a research laboratory this morning to mark the unveiling of the Government's new energy security plan.
Expecting to hear from Mr Sunak later today in an interview with broadcasters

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1641326697223004162

If Carlsberg did RNS's this is what it would look like .....share buybacks to begin, 13% quarterly divi, EBITDA $274m (mcap £340), bond debt cleared & forecast greater FCF....broker had 150p target before today's results

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1639211772250054656

added to SEPL 100p.......markets crashed price of oil stocks today, again, however, profitable, fcf and divi upcoming

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1638921124229570562

.the figures suggest the sp has serious upside and with an initial 10p divi upcoming.

with guidance upcoming, new wells ahead, increasing production and cash flow forecast to come and business aiming to be back on track all looks set for a better 2023 and the likely prospect of an acquisition too there's a lot too look forward to...after the delays it's better to get it right than false starts, so no hurry and for those who position ahead of the news flow current sp looks vey attractive :-)

;-)

'expect to beat quoted bopd, can add extra value, expect more M&A (overseas) No debt, net cash, balance sheet will grow with enhanced shareholder returns '

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HT9xEzw3Nto

Mercuria have there shares at 278p, I would guess they would be seeking a return on that and likely more aquisitions on the way, with many analysts expecting the oil price to rally back above 80 dollars going forward the cash generation for SQZ looks excellent....

and yes there are obviously additional shares, however, there is now additional oil that was not part of the business before, so overall a larger business with an additional income stream instead of just gas (thank goodness)....so a bigger businees, greater income potential, partial tax loss to be offset against growing profits and an expected greater ability to generate cash.......and at current prices agreat opportunity imo

great, that's that settled...we now have an oil and gas company....game on :-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1637741924454125570

a bit of early turbulence, calming down a bit brent back up to 71.67

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1637443580284338181

Goldman Sachs forecast revised to $94 for 2023 and $97 for 2024...not too shabby .

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-19/goldman-sachs-no-longer-sees-oil-reaching-100-this-year?srnd=premium&sref=866aH6XX&utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=mobile_web_share&leadSource=uverify%20wall