Member Info for surprised

In private, ministers and their advisers readily admit they acted in haste and messed up the whole thing. They know they could alleviate the damage with relative ease, by applying a price floor to the tax and increasing investment allowances.

The North Sea is critical to British energy security. Oil and gas supply more than two thirds of our overall energy. Wind and solar, despite all the hoo-ha, supply less than 10 per cent and cannot be relied upon in the wrong weather. About half our oil and a third of our gas is produced in the North Sea. So running it down simply means the UK will have to import more, which is both riskier and more carbon-intensive.

recent rounds of poorly designed windfall taxes, and warnings by Labour that it will stop all “new investment” in fossil fuels, that have really sent the industry into a tailspin. Nine in ten capital projects in the North Sea are now on hold. The largest of them is the Rosebank field, where work was due to start extracting 300 million barrels of oil. Activity in new fields is at a 40-year low. Investment has cratered to the point where future production will be below even what is required by the Climate Change Committee’s preferred “pathway” to net zero

The plan, insofar as there is one, is to rely on more imports from the United States or Middle East, which means being at the mercy of global gas markets — while Britain wrecks its own production prospects and fails to open more storage capacity so we can stockpile

“The politics are difficult,” they whisper. “It doesn’t play well.” In other words, our government is knowingly engaged in an act of economic vandalism purely for the sake of short-term political gain. It is sacrificing both Britain’s energy security and the climate because “standing up to Big Oil” sounds good in focus groups.

A few weeks ago, the country was appalled to learn that Russia had been sending spy vessels around the North Sea in a possible precursor to sabotage. The truth is that Moscow needn’t bother. If the government has its way, North Sea industry will soon be in irreversible decline. Who needs the FSB when you have the Treasury?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/treasury-idiocy-is-killing-north-sea-energy-t6ngw95j7

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Crude-Prices-Rise-On-Surprise-Inventory-Draw.html

The price of WTI and Brent were both trading up on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release.

By 3:11 p.m. EST, WTI was trading up $0.86 (+1.19%) on the day at $72.91 per barrel, and up more than $2 per barrel week over week. Brent crude was trading up $0.84 (+1.11%) on the day at $76.83—up roughly $2 per barrel from this time last week.

WTI was trading at $73.18 shortly after the data release.

Gasoline inventories fell by 6.398 million barrels after falling in the week prior by 2.46 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 1.771 million barrels after decreasing by 886,000 barrels in the week prior.

https://twitter.com/BloombergNRG/status/1661223963261825029

Oil kept rising after Saudi Arabia's energy minister warned short-sellers they might be ``ouching''. That's a sign the OPEC+ cartel might be preparing to cut output again to buoy falling prices

Https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/05/oil-price-coro-petro-matad-jadestone-and-finally/

''Given my view that JSE is one of the best managed company in the sector who have built up a portfolio to be envied in Asia with significant organic and non-organic growth it is a natural that this RBL is installed to help with its growth.

But the market’s confidence is low and I thought that the share price fall had finished at the 70p level, but with the recent fall taking it to below 50p it is time to get the buying boots on''

Momentum rebuilding: The extensions follow recent contract awards across urgent and elective care. This includes a £66m eight year retender to deliver two urgent treatment centres in Bromley, SE London, and a £10m p.a. contract with NHS England to provide national contingency support for NHS 111. It also includes two insourcing contracts (c.£2.2m combined) with Saolta Group in Ireland, while the group was added to the NHS Wales insourcing framework. This suggests momentum is rebuilding across the group following the demobilisation in NW London.

Cross-party alignment: We believe Totally is focussed on securing profitable growth from the significant opportunities present across the UK healthcare market. To this point, it is encouraging to find cross-party political support is in place to increasingly engage with independent care providers and ease the burden on the NHS.

Undemanding valuation: Totally trades on a FY24E EV/EBITDA of 4.3x and a P/E of 6.0x.

The dividend yield is 4.8%. We maintain our BUY rating and 40p target price.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1660527877752774657

.Totally secures multiple contract extensions The extensions underpin revenue expectations for the year ahead says ceo.

Totally secures extensions across multiple services in the North and Midlands totalling c. £12m

Totally plc (AIM: TLY), a leading provider of frontline healthcare services, corporate fitness and wellbeing services across the UK and Ireland, has secured multiple contract extensions for a range of urgent care services delivered across the North of England and the Midlands valued in total at c. £12 million.

The contract extensions vary in length between six and 12 month periods and cover a range of urgent care services including NHS 111, GP OOH and Clinical Assessment Services (CAS) in Staffordshire, Yorkshire and Northumberland.

The extensions underpin revenue expectations for the year ahead.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1660524086714417152

'prime minister sets out plans to cut waiting lists with efforts to use private companies to boost NHS capacity and reduce waiting list'

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-app-to-let-patients-book-private-healthcare-rrcf8dtzf

We initiate on Ceres Power (Ceres) with a BUY rating and a target price of 800p.

Ceres’ business is differentiated by its specialisation in both fuel cell and electrolyser technology under an asset-light, licensing business model.

In our view, Ceres Power is a “must-have” ticket to the energy transition within our coverage. Ceres has both fuel cell (power) and electrolyser (hydrogen production) technology exposure. Its solid oxide technology is gaining greater commercial traction, and its commercial partners are world-class operators in their industry niches. The company operates a capital-light, licensing model that delivers high margins, and is highly scalable relative to peers.

We see imminent strong upward inflection in revenue from partnerships with Bosch, Doosan and Weichai as the company’s licence-based model delivers a highly scalable royalty revenue stream with best-in-class gross margins. It’s capex-light model ensures good FCF generation, and thus offers potential for significant capital return.

Our Sum of parts of fuel cell + electrolysis + net cash indicates 135% potential share price upside. Ceres now has two

businesses that are leveraged to the energy transition mega-trend.

Ceres continues to collaborate with high-quality, global industrial companies who are highly motivated to integrate green technology solutions

Bosch and Doosan have already committed to shipments commencing in 2024, (respectively producing at 200MW and 50MW pa from 2024) while we expect the commercial agreement centred around Weichai to be finalised

Well-funded and will be cash positive to +ve FCF – In our view Ceres is more than adequately funded in relation to its capex needs.

We believe the market is not applying any value to electrolysis yet, and on our numbers it is only reflecting 80% of

our valuation for the fuel cell business.

Valuation: 800p target price.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1658032761100288000

Will this be the 'political' opportunity for the WFT to have a floor ?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-bills-will-fall-in-six-weeks-shapps-predicts-qmd6pfn5b

Energy bills should fall within six weeks, Grant Shapps has predicted.

The energy secretary acknowledged that while wholesale prices were returning to “normal” levels, households had yet to see that reflected in their bills. The wholesale price of gas peaked at about £6 per therm but is at 76p per therm.

Shapps said households should start to see the fall in wholesale prices affect their bills this summer.

He told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme: “What we’re starting to see, or have seen on the wholesale price, those energy prices falling below that cap and getting back to more normal prices.

Some are adding too down at these prices :-)

David Neuhauser, a Non-Executive Director of Jadestone, acquired a total of 100,000 ordinary shares, for a total amount of £50,500.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1656544104971378690

'we can deliver both material production growth per share and a significant free cash flow yield'

" Manuel Pablo Zuniga-Pflucker, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"I am pleased to report that the Company has achieved production in excess of 20,000 bopd for over 74 days since late February 2023.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1656545151093809154

and another £19k shares added to his holding ..nearly £100k added in two days

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1656198888070561792

et another director buy, ceo, £77k, they do appear to be backing themselves for recovery.

Paul Blakeley, an Executive Director, President and CEO of Jadestone, acquired a total of 160,000 ordinary shares, for a total amount of £77,600.

Following the transaction, Mr. Blakeley holds a total of 4,517,111 ordinary shares

;-)

https://twitter.com/BloombergNRG/status/1654301086784561152

Crude markets have suffered a disastrous few weeks, dragged down by alarm over the wider economy. But real oil demand still looks strong enough to foster a rebound in prices
Price Collapse Is Excessive and Physical market is ‘pretty tight,’ Shell CEO Wael Sawan says

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1653839716234436615

Fully expect it to be a takeover target as it sits ripe for Maxwell or another to swoop now , patents, production line, products, new Continental deal etc....at what price is the key as they should have raised long ago (poor decision not too by AK once again, finally stood down)

Totally anticipates FY23E EBITDA will be in line with market expectations (CGe: £6.3m), which we see as reassuring given the well-flagged cost and legal challenges faced during the period. We are also told that net cash was £3.9m (gross £6.4m) at 31 March 2023.
This is £1.6m below our estimate but reflects exceptional restructuring costs and growth demands on working capital. Looking forward, we note Totally has now demobilised its NW London Urgent Treatment Centre (UTC) contracts and is not expecting any revenue, cost or liability contribution for FY24E. We believe this is important as it draws a line in
the sand, and allows management to fully focus on delivering growth given significant opportunities across the healthcare market.
Indeed, Totally is already building good momentum as it works to bridge the gap and grow y/y. Pioneer Healthcare will likely be a key driver of this, in our view, with revenues doubling y/y and improving the margin mix. Recent contract wins with Saolta Group and a position secured on NHS Wales insourcing framework suggests that Pioneer is well placed to continue on its current growth trajectory
Meanwhile, in Urgent Care we note a successful retender and mobilisation for two UTCs in Bromley while Totally has recently enhanced its NHS 111 capability by becoming the first provider to become fully mobilised on NHS England’s
SVCC model. Investment continues to be made in corporate well-being (EFP) and this could begin to offer interesting diversification opportunities in the future.
Healthy cash position
At 31 March 2023 Totally had gross cash of £6.4m (FY22: £15.3m). Net cash (pre-leases) was £3.9m. The reduction reflects
a shift in the working capital profile of the group as Pioneer has grown

Valuation looks undemanding
Based on our estimates, Totally trades on a FY-Mar24E P/E of 6.4x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.6x. The dividend yield is 4.5%. We maintain our BUY rating and 40p target price

The new contract win, which is valued at around £1.5m, is in addition to a £0.65m urology contract secured with the same client (announced 12 April) and runs from May to December 2023. It will see Pioneer Healthcare support Saolta to reduce patient waiting lists for several acute procedures covering diagnostic colonoscopy, gastroscopy and flexible sigmoidoscopy. We believe this additional contract offers encouragement, adding to the trading momentum building through insourcing wins in recent weeks. In particular, it highlights a significant opportunity for Pioneer (Totally's fastest growing and highest margin division) to support waiting list reduction across the UK and Ireland via a capital light insourcing model.

The dividend yield is 5%. We maintain our BUY rating and 40p target price which is based on an FY24E EV/EBITDA of 8x (currently a 25% discount to peer average) and implies a P/E of 12x. With the shares trading at almost half our target, we believe further positive news momentum could provide a catalyst to help drive a significant share price re-rating

'.....The financial press has also reported that the government will make changes to the energy profits levy (EPL). It realises that charging it on all profits rather than just windfalls was self-defeating. North Sea operators are cutting investment in the region, hitting jobs, reducing the UKs energy security, and ultimately increasing the release of carbon as imported liquid natural gas (LNG) takes its place. If the government does modify the EPL, it should improve sentiment towards the sector.'