Member Info for surprised

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1666705241465659394

PTAL account for around 5% disruption in their forecasts and unfortunately it's part of the normal business however, they still manage to generate great profits, divis, buy backs and are growing still, so more plus than minus.

Taking a Peru naval vessel and a PTAL barge will certainly get them noticed......can only imagine the government will want it's nave vessel and people back quickly ...

footage of the hijack ..

https://twitter.com/TitoAlvites/status/1666454723786948609

Miton now take a 3 percent hoding too ....interesting

Lol, maybe, however, it's part of doing business in Peru, it's not for the faint hearted or those who panic at a bit of disruption as we all know :-)

To be fair it co incides with the planned halt and is already catered for in the overall targets, so hardly a crisis, part of the business that is accounted for and a small hiccup against the backdrop of excellent production , cash generation and PTAL is still cheap on all metrics at current price...hardly a drama in the PTAL world, just normal business ...

''....our updated fair value estimate amounts to 27.0p (29.5p). The operational and financial outlook for i3 Energy remains robust. Trading at an EV to cashflow multiple of 3.4 times, based on our estimates, and paying a dividend yield of 11.4%, we believe i3 Energy represents a significantly undervalued growth opportunity that is delivering solid operational and financial results.''

David and Monique Newlands are back in with a 3 percent holding......interesting.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1665995013426225153

Stokopedia tweet...

Forecasts for 2023 seem to be for 100p of earnings. So there's a forecast P/E of just over 2. But half the £863m market cap is currently in cash - £433m. Wow.

Stockopedia Quality rank 97 /100

Value rank 94/100

Stock rank 95/100

Our honeymoon with electric cars is coming to an end, we’re realising that a wider range of options need to be explored'....they're far from 'green'

' the lithium-ion battery is an imperfect device for electric cars, it’s a complete non-starter for trucks because of its weight; for such vehicles hydrogen can be injected directly into a new kind of piston engine. JCB, the company that makes yellow diggers, has made huge strides with hydrogen engines and hopes to put them into production in the next couple of years..'

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/03/electric-vehicles-early-adopter-petrol-car-ev-environment-rowan-atkinson?CMP=fb_cif

Labour’s oil drilling ban would be too much, far too soon

that Labour may end licensing for new UK oil and gas developments sent shockwaves through my industry this week. Britain’s offshore sector employs 200,000 people, was among the first in the country to commit to net zero, and is critical to delivering it.

UK energy operators produce 40 per cent of our gas and 60 per cent of our oil. We have 24 million homes reliant on gas boilers and 76 per cent of our total energy comes from oil and gas. So North Sea supplies are essential to energy security.

An end to new investment would lead to oil and gas output falling 80 per cent by 2033, a decline too rapid to find low-carbon replacements. We would have to turn to imports.

Why are new oil and gas licences so important for UK production? The answer lies in the geology of the North Sea. The Brent field has produced three billion barrels of oil since 1975 while the Forties field has produced 2.6 billion barrels since the 1970s, with 20 years more life. Their output is, however, declining, so the focus is on the many smaller fields in the North Sea, Celtic Sea and eastern Atlantic, with shorter lives. The UK has 283 active oil and gas fields but 180 will shut down by 2030. So we need to find new ones.

This “churn”, the constant replacement of dying fields with newer ones, is crucial. In the past five years 12 new gas fields were opened and provide 30 per cent of our gas. Without them the Ukraine crisis would have forced Britain to source more liquefied natural gas from overseas. The climate change committee has said Britain will need 16 billion barrels-worth of oil and gas between now and 2050.

Finding new oil and gas fields is expensive and risky, but the UK always attracted investors because of its political and fiscal stability. That no longer applies. Windfall taxes plus political uncertainty over licensing means 90 per cent of UK energy producers are cutting investment.

I would ask Sir Keir Starmer, Ed Miliband and other policymakers to reflect — and to talk to us. Parliament may thrive on opposition and argument, but big engineering projects only succeed through collaboration. The transition to net zero will be the biggest engineering project this country has ever seen. It will fail if politicians undermine the industries, workforces and communities whose skills will be vital for building our energy future.

:-)

Pt2

Simply to fulfil any kind of net-zero plan will require new factories, pipelines and turbines to be built — all of which need to be powered through the National Grid.

Cutting off domestic production of oil and gas too soon would simply push up prices and leave the UK more vulnerable when the next crisis comes. By letting ideology trump pragmatism, Labour risks repeating the mistakes of the past.

The UK doesn’t bang its own drum loudly enough on climate progress. In the two decades to 2021, carbon emissions fell by 43 per cent, helped in large part by the almost total removal of coal from the power system. But, like it or not, oil and gas continue to provide three quarters of our overall energy mix.

A good proportion is produced in the North Sea. But because of falling production we have, since 2004, been a net importer, exposed to the volatility of the open market. Rocketing fuel prices after Covid and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine focused minds on energy security — and the trade-offs involved in trying to choke off domestic oil and gas supplies before enough renewables have become available.

Labour’s proposal to ban new North Sea development should be seen in this context. Apparently chasing eco-votes, Sir Keir Starmer is expected to say that a Labour government would not issue any more drilling licences. Talking about turning Britain into a “clean energy superpower” is all very well. But sounding the death knell for the North Sea, where operators are already reeling from windfall taxes and hostile rhetoric from the Scottish National Party, is an economically risky idea that would risk leaving Britain permanently at the mercy of international price fluctuations.

Renewables now account for nearly half the UK’s electricity generation, but they are still making up less than 10 per cent of the total energy mix.

Aggressively phasing out oil and gas without building more nuclear power to replace the lost “baseload” — reliable generation — is a pipe dream. Any serious vision for decarbonising the UK’s energy system must embrace nuclear, and even gas, as well as renewables.

The big energy companies Labour would whack with its ban are precisely the ones it would then want help from for its green agenda. Giants such as Shell are not just oil and gas explorers.

Windfall taxes, which raise the total rate for North Sea oil and gas to 75 per cent — and offer no investment allowances for renewables — have sent a chill through the industry. Offshore Energies UK, a lobby group, warns that 90 per cent of operators are cutting back their activities. It says £200 billion of investment — including on offshore wind, carbon capture and storage and hydrogen production — is at risk. Jobs are already being lost as firms such as the North Sea specialist Harbour Energy retreat,

The present government is far from innocent in this, having brought in the windfall taxes Labour called for and then raised them further. Both sides need to get real. Windfall taxes are strangling the North Sea, and Starmer’s ban would kill it off.

.....

''Without new licences being approved, experts predict that domestic oil and gas production could fall by as much as 15 per cent per year by the turn of the decade. If so, output in ten years would be about 80 per cent lower than it is now.

According to the latest estimates, there were 4 billion barrels of “proven and probable” oil and gas remaining at the end of 2021. As a country, the UK uses about one billion barrels a year, though much of the North Sea output is exported for use in plastics and other manufacturing. A further 6.1 billion barrels are thought to remain in licensed fields waiting for full approval,...''

Time on our side still and investment in UK will now be held off until election results known or goes abroad

Labour would continue to use existing oil and gas wells over the coming decades and manage them sustainably as we transform the UK into a clean energy superpower.”

Labour’s treatment of the North Sea will create a dividing line not only with the Tories, but also the Scottish National Party, which has stopped short of calling for a halt to North Sea oil and gas licences.

The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) has just held a new licensing round for oil and gas exploration projects which attracted more than 100 bids. Two significant oil fields — Cambo and Jackdaw — have been given licences.

Last week Graham Stuart, the Tory minister for climate and net zero, said the government was committed to new oil and gas licences in the North Sea

Without new licences being approved, experts predict that domestic oil and gas production could fall by as much as 15 per cent per year by the turn of the decade. If so, output in ten years would be about 80 per cent lower than it is now.

According to the latest estimates, there were 4 billion barrels of “proven and probable” oil and gas remaining at the end of 2021. As a country, the UK uses about one billion barrels a year, though much of the North Sea output is exported for use in plastics and other manufacturing. A further 6.1 billion barrels are thought to remain in licensed fields waiting for full approval, proposed new developments and what the authority calls “marginal discoveries”.

Dave Whitehouse, chief executive of Offshore Energies UK, said: “People wouldn’t forgive anyone who shut down Britain’s oil and gas industry and replaced it with imports . . . Labour’s approach risks sending the wrong signals.

The most ludicrous decision by any politician that will send costs soaring, leave energy supply vulnerable & bring many businesses to a halt, a huge jobs risk with increased import emissionss to ! An uncosted ill thought out disaster from @UKLabour

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/starmer-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-developments-lqr2tc66k

Keir Starmer will announce plans to block all new North Sea oil and gas developments and limit borrowing to green investment only as part of a radical blueprint to make Britain a “clean energy superpower”.

The Labour leader is expected to set out his net zero energy policy when he launches his latest “national mission” in Scotland next month. It will include a pledge to ban all new North Sea oil and gas licences, signalling a seismic shift in decades of UK energy policy.

It will be one of Starmer’s five key pledges to the electorate and opens up a clear dividing line with the Conservative Party over a critical issue facing the UK as next year’s general election approaches. Rishi Sunak has backed further oil and gas exploration in the country’s energy security strategy.

Starmer will also announce that a Labour government would only borrow to invest in green enterprises, another dramatic departure from policies enacted by successive UK governments. The Labour source added: “We’ll set out our fiscal plans in full at the election, showing how we will invest in jobs and industries of the future while meeting our fiscal rules.”

The party expects the plan to create up to half a million jobs in the renewables industry, including at least 50,000 in Scotland. The move is expected to offset developments in the dwindling North Sea oil and gas fields that directly employ more than 20,000 workers and provide an estimated further 200,000 jobs onshore.

Under the “green prosperity” plan, Labour is aiming to double onshore wind, triple solar and more than quadruple offshore wind power. The party has committed to creating a publicly owned renewable energy company whose aim is to achieve a zero-carbon power system by 2030.

However, Starmer’s decision to turn off the taps in the North Sea is not expected to come without challenges amid fears it could force the UK to place more reliance on energy imported from countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Currently, the UK meets about 45 per cent of its gas needs from domestic energy generation, reducing its dependence on overseas vendors with higher emissions. Despite the continued rise in renewables, however, 85 per cent of British homes still rely on gas boilers for heat and 42 per cent of the UK’s electricity comes from gas.

A Labour source said: “We are against the granting of new licences for oil and gas in the North Sea. They will do nothing to cut bills as the Tories have acknowledged. They undermine our energy security, and would drive a coach and horse through our climate targets. Labour would co

The article re WFT is likely a pre cursor to a floor in the tax being announced shortly alongside the news of reduced energy bills for households as prices have fallen back dramatically as we know. 'Politically' the opportunity is now there to reduce the windfall tax imo.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1661012482243317761

:-)

The article re WFT is likely a pre cursor to a floor in the tax being announced shortly alongside the news of reduced energy bills for households as prices have fallen back dramatically as we know. 'Politically' the opportunity is now there to reduce the windfall tax imo.

In private, ministers and their advisers readily admit they acted in haste and messed up the whole thing. They know they could alleviate the damage with relative ease, by applying a price floor to the tax and increasing investment allowances.

The North Sea is critical to British energy security. Oil and gas supply more than two thirds of our overall energy. Wind and solar, despite all the hoo-ha, supply less than 10 per cent and cannot be relied upon in the wrong weather. About half our oil and a third of our gas is produced in the North Sea. So running it down simply means the UK will have to import more, which is both riskier and more carbon-intensive.

recent rounds of poorly designed windfall taxes, and warnings by Labour that it will stop all “new investment” in fossil fuels, that have really sent the industry into a tailspin. Nine in ten capital projects in the North Sea are now on hold. The largest of them is the Rosebank field, where work was due to start extracting 300 million barrels of oil. Activity in new fields is at a 40-year low. Investment has cratered to the point where future production will be below even what is required by the Climate Change Committee’s preferred “pathway” to net zero

The plan, insofar as there is one, is to rely on more imports from the United States or Middle East, which means being at the mercy of global gas markets — while Britain wrecks its own production prospects and fails to open more storage capacity so we can stockpile

“The politics are difficult,” they whisper. “It doesn’t play well.” In other words, our government is knowingly engaged in an act of economic vandalism purely for the sake of short-term political gain. It is sacrificing both Britain’s energy security and the climate because “standing up to Big Oil” sounds good in focus groups.

A few weeks ago, the country was appalled to learn that Russia had been sending spy vessels around the North Sea in a possible precursor to sabotage. The truth is that Moscow needn’t bother. If the government has its way, North Sea industry will soon be in irreversible decline. Who needs the FSB when you have the Treasury?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/treasury-idiocy-is-killing-north-sea-energy-t6ngw95j7