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Energy boss says prices might spike this winter

Energy (gas) prices could spike this winter forcing governments to step in and subsidise bills again, the head of the International Energy Agency has said.

If the Chinese economy strengthens quickly and there is a harsh winter, gas prices could rise, putting pressure on consumers, Fatih Birol said.

He said this winter "we cannot rule out" another spike in gas prices.

"In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets, and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers," he said.

He said he "wouldn't rule out blackouts" this winter as "part of the game".

"We do not know yet how strongly the Chinese economy will rebound," he said.

Https://guardian.ng/business-services/seplat-optimistic-of-completing-1-3b-exxonmobil-acquisition/

Seplat Energy Plc has expressed its commitment to completing the purchase of Nigerian oil and gas assets from ExxonMobil Corporation, a deal that has been held up by the Federal Government for more than a year.

The Lagos and London-listed company is hoping that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would adopt a different approach than his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, who reversed an initial decision to approve the transaction.

Seplat’s Chief Executive Officer, Roger Brown, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying: “We are still interested in the assets. We still like the company we are buying. We think it is a game changing operation.”

Under the deal unveiled in February 2022, Seplat agreed to pay $1.3b for an Exxon unit that holds a 40 per cent operating stake in four shallow-water licenses in a purchase that would almost quadruple the independent company’s oil output to more than 130,000 bpd.

A confident and astute AGM statement by Mitch Flegg in which he points out the quality of the Serica portfolio cum Tailwind which has been producing at nearly 50/- boe/d but with an eye on maintenance work guidance is still 40-47/-.

Tactically with politics in mind he also says that short-cycle investment opportunities are being addressed and we know what that is code for. The dividend of 14p goes XD today so worth having on its own, while adding the minimum of 8p making 22p gives them a yield of 10%, a substantial amount and covered more than twice and which the company are aiming to ‘maintain or increase in future years’.

Serica is in very good nick since the Tailwind deal which has made the company ‘more balanced’ in the words of Mitch Flegg, and he is now clearly looking at more M&A activity. If industry valuations are anything like the quoted ones then it may be an asset deal, otherwise there are accretive opportunities all over the place in the market.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/06/oil-price-touchstone-sound-serica-i3-jadestone-and-finally/

Investor behavior has been the focus of many studies, and numerous theories attempt to explain the regret or overreaction that buyers and sellers often experience when it comes to money. The reality is that the investor's psyche can overpower rational thinking during times of stress, whether that stress is a result of euphoria or panic. Taking a rational and realistic approach to investing—during what seems like a short time frame for capitalizing on euphoria or fearful market developments—is essential.

Investors typically put hard-earned cash in investments for the sake of receiving a return. Still, they see their investments lose value due to market developments at times. The losses can cause stress and second-guessing. That is, many investors have a relatively low risk tolerance when it comes to investing because losing money is painful.

challenges due to emotional investing can crop up when investors see unidentified or higher-stake risks than they had originally anticipated.

At the end of the day, individual investors are accountable for their own trade decisions and therefore must be cautious when seeking to time market opportunities based on the latest headlines. Using rational and realistic thinking to understand when an investment may be in a development cycle is the key to evaluating interesting opportunities and resisting bad investing ideas. Reacting to the latest breaking news is probably a sign that decisions are being driven by emotion rather than rational thinking.

Investing without emotion is easier said than done, but there are some important considerations that can keep an individual investor from chasing futile gains or overselling in panic. Understanding your own risk tolerance and the risks of your investments can be an important basis for rational decisions.

Overall, while there are times when active and emotional investing can be profitable, data shows that following a well-defined investment strategy and staying the course through market volatility often results in the best long-term performance returns.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1019334/i3-energy-continues-to-perform-very-well-despite-unexpectedly-low-oil-and-gas-prices-1019334.html

10% up from this morning low so a few are taking advantage onm the initial emotions :-)

Fair value estimate to 22.3p on current ouitlook , with upside potential on rising oil/gas prices and /or increased production.

Contnd...

We have been inordinately focused on i3 Energy’s Clearwater acreage because it generates 100% oil and industry leading

economics. We believe that confirmed success via forthcoming production can really move the dial for i3 Energy given its land base.

We are encouraged that i3 Energy is successfully drilling its Clearwater acreage on a 100% operated basis and we are

excited to see how these wells come in.

We are also encouraged by i3 Energy’s peers in the area because they are growing the play into new regions and expanding the sequences within the Clearwater formation that are being targeted.

3 Energy stated that it remains flexible and able to adapt to further commodity price dynamics, potentially drilling more aggressively should energy prices rise convincingly in 2H 2023 – as we expect.

• Conclusion: i3 Energy, we believe, has reacted conservatively to lower energy prices, unexpected developments outside of the company’s control and the demands related to the conservative amortization profile of its newly secured debt facility.

Although we believe that the outlook for both oil and gas prices is exceptionally robust for 2H 2023, we believe i3 Energy has taken measures to keep its balance sheet strong across a range of energy price outcomes.

Leaves room for increased upside..

The company’s revised production guidance reflects, planned downtime, third-party infrastructure curtailments, downtime related to wildfires and its reduced capex, as a result of which, production guidance for the year has been revised to 20,000-21,000 boe/d (from 22,250-23,000 boe/d).

Reflecting these changes, we are lowering our expected 2023 cashflow projection for i3 Energy to £55.7m (from £67.3m).

Our conservative, some might say punitive, valuation methodology is based on applying a 5x (EV/CF) multiple to 2023 cashflow; as a result of which, we are lowering our fair value estimate to 22.3p (from 27.0p).

We continue to expect a strong 2H 2023 for both oil and natural gas prices and believe the measures taken by i3 Energy will

ensure it retains balance sheet strength and flexibility for a broad range of commodity price outcomes. We are particularly encouraged by the company’s drilling results and land acquisitions in the Clearwater formation and the increased focus on oil weighted production growth

Lol.....

averaged 53k boepd in the 2nd quarter of this year. Have maintained annual guidance. They are looking to maintain or further increase annual divi of 22p which is a 10% yield.

FCF expected tob e at least 2x the required divi payment. Strong net cash hence divi etc. also have tax losses to offset.

Not a bad outlook at all (very good in fact) and when oil/gas prices climb so does FCF , profits and divi :-)

Yup, those initial (inside) sellers of the past couple of days are now picking up todays new sellers down here, as seen by the instant buying at 12p and looking for a nice gain back above 16p+ going forward over coming weeks....it's how mkts work, the key is not to provide them with your shares if you feel there is value and an 8 percent divi now over coming weeks when all is settled and if /when oil/gas climbs as expected . gla

Buyers snapping up the intial panic sells as expected ....

Divi reduced to 6% on 16p sp, likely to be much higher % after todays initial sell off. Holding all, let market settle Have a longer term view and at present can see upward revision as/if/when oil/gas prices jump.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1674313178153463808

Gas Is Here to Stay for Decades, Say Fossil Fuel Heavyweights

Natural gas was seen as a short-term bridge to greener energy sources, but increasing investment in the fuel is a clear sign that demand will remain for decades to come

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-24/oil-giants-from-shell-to-chevron-say-gas-here-to-stay-for-green-transition?srnd=premium-asia&sref=qDFwOhqX&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=energy&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-energy&utm_medium=social&leadSource=uverify%20wall

''PTAL announces that it received notices to exercise 37,949,314 Investor Warrants at a price of 16 pence per Common Share from an investor in relation to the Investor Warrants issued on June 12, 2020. The Company received 6,071,890 GBP for the Warrants exercised.

Following the Warrants exercise, the Company will have no Investor Warrants outstanding. Application will be made for admission of the 37,949,314 Common Shares, which will rank pari passu with existing Common Shares, to trading on AIM ("Admission"), which is expected to occur on or around June 21, 2023.

Once these are cleared no more brake on sp :-)

Final tranche of warrants being offloaded, once they are worked through we are clear to go :-)

Oil & Gas 26/06/2023

PetroTal

Underrated Growth and Income

Stock trading at large discount to peers (ca.-40%) and to risked NAV (ca.-60%).

• Our estimate of total cash return yield of 15-16% for FY23E and FY24E (as per RNS of 30 March 2023) is not yet priced-in by the market.

• We expect FY23E guidance to be raised in August to account for strong production of 20,000bbl/d in Q2 2023.

• Beyond that, we expect strong future growth in reserves and production from current Bretaña field development as well as low risk exploration.

• Best time to buy into this strongly underrated growth and income investment opportunity with flawless track record of operational delivery.

PetroTal demonstrated strong production and reserves growth from the Bretaña field and has now committed to returning a significant portion of cash generated to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. We believe strong operational growth will continue in the future and generate surplus cash beyond the level of distribution already committed to, due to the significant running room in the asset base and established commercial routes.

We believe PetroTal is a strong investment opportunity currently in the sector, combining a high potential cash return yield of 15-16% with significant capital growth.

Looks like demand is poised to surge along with prices...and profits :-)

Warns of a Copper ‘Train Wreck’ as Supply Stalls

Ivanhoe founder says he fears copper prices could jump tenfold

Copper is poised to follow other commodities upended by recent price surges as the mining industry struggles to expand ahead of accelerating demand, warns the man behind some of the world’s biggest mines.

Demand for critical raw materials is set to jump as nations mandate clean energy and transport while clambering to develop their own supply chains. But a combination of factors suggests supply won’t keep pace,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-26/billionaire-miner-friedland-warns-of-copper-train-wreck-as-supply-stalls?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1673364228844011525

Saudis to slash oil production next month by 10%, a cut that will reduce output to just 9 million barrels a day, the lowest since 2011. Crucially, as important as the cut itself, is where it’s going to be felt: The signals point to the US and Europe.

When Saudi Arabia needs to quickly convince the oil market that supply is tightening, putting upward pressure on prices, nothing beats reducing its crude exports into the US.

Focusing on the US would telegraph the reduction clearly to traders. Fluctuations in American crude imports, and ultimately, oil stockpiles have an outsize impact because Washington publishes the data weekly. In other regions, traders only get official figures on a monthly basis, or sometimes not at all, as in China and India.

It’s a tactic that Saudi Arabia used to great effect six years ago when the kingdom targeted American buyers to rewrite the market’s narrative. .

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-06-26/gas-price-alert-saudis-are-tightening-the-screws-on-us-oil-shipments?leadSource=uverify%20wall