Member Info for surprised

The level of disclosed Short Interest in HBR has changed materially.

Short Interest has moved from 3.79% on the previous trading day to 3.29% today.

Sentiment change on Oil today....

Global Oil Market to Tighten in 2023 as US Reverses Forecast

World expected to consume more oil than it produces this year

China’s demand seen growing more while production cuts mount

The US expects the global oil market to tighten this year as it reverses its forecast in a move that more closely aligns with bullish estimates by OPEC and the International Energy Agency.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/us-sees-global-oil-demand-exceeding-supply-this-year?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Sentiment change on Oil today....

Global Oil Market to Tighten in 2023 as US Reverses Forecast

World expected to consume more oil than it produces this year

China’s demand seen growing more while production cuts mount

The US expects the global oil market to tighten this year as it reverses its forecast in a move that more closely aligns with bullish estimates by OPEC and the International Energy Agency.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/us-sees-global-oil-demand-exceeding-supply-this-year?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Nope, hedging is not an achillies heel......oil price will work through along with fundamentals etc :-)

Nope...

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Cuts Are Quietly Starting to Bite

Headline oil prices are based on low-sulfur, density oil

Prices for heavier grades are rallying faster after Saudi cuts

The oil market is finally starting to flicker into life — and nowhere is that clearer than in the prices of crude like Saudi Arabia’s, where output cuts are quietly transforming the supply landscape.

The kingdom and its partners in the OPEC+ oil producer alliance have been restraining supply for months now, with relatively little impact on the futures market. Brent oil traded in London had been stuck around the $75-a-barrel mark for weeks.

That shifted a little Friday, when the contracts rose to about $78........

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/away-from-headline-oil-prices-saudi-arabia-s-output-cuts-are-starting-to-bite?leadSource=uverify%20wall

SQZ so badly priced in relation to profits, FCF, etc you just have to own it down here 🤪

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1678772283991793664

Totally is one of the only UK-quoted providers of independent healthcare services that has the scale and breadth to help address this and has been growing rapidly in recent years. Whilst procurement delays and inflationary pressures have impacted in the short term, the recent pullback in the shares looks overdone and has, in our opinion, created a compelling buying opportunity.

Medium term, we see scope for a re-rating as further growth is delivered and as margins continue to improve on scale and improved mix. We initiate with a Buy recommendation.

We believe we have pitched our forecasts conservatively to reflect short term inflationary pressures and contract transitions. Despite this, we expect margins to continue to improve on scale efficiencies and improved mix. We expect strong cash generation to resume this year and earnings growth in FY25 (EPS +40%), with scope for upside to these forecasts on further contract win momentum and potentially accretive future M&A.

Compelling value on offer Following the recent pullback, TLY trades on just 4.9x FY24 EV/EBITDA, falling to 3.9x in FY25. This is a significant discount to its peers (on 8-10x), its historical averages and to comparable transactions in the space. Furthermore, the model is asset-light and highly cash generative, offering a 10% FCF yield in FY25 and a 3% dividend yield. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and 12m Target Price of 30p.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1678302399553839105

price already reflected (drop from 40p 😳) difficulties in NHS, strikes, etc...sp at lows, will wait and see if ceo can provide a lift above the current forecast & government provide a boost to clearing waiting lists eventually.

broker note..

urgent care revenues declined 10% as pandemic-related demand fell away and certain contracts came to an end. Elective revenues almost doubled with organic growth of 21% y/y to improve the profit mix. We anticipate a 25% fall in urgent care revenues

in FY24E with elective care growing by 20% which should further improve profit mix.Operating cash flow (and working capital) was positive during H2'23 despite a FY23 draw with cash consumption during the 2H largely driven by £6.4m of contingent consideration for Pioneer. We think this should help alleviate concerns around cash.

The dividend yield is 3.7%. We maintain our BUY rating but reduce our target price to 30p based on 8x EV/EBITDA, which looks undemanding relative to peer average of 11x.

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1677245133727604736

Seplat CEO, Roger Brown, was quoted by Bloomberg 'We think it is a game changing operation' & would quadruple oil output to over 130,000 bpd.

https://guardian.ng/business-services/seplat-optimistic-of-completing-1-3b-exxonmobil-acquisition/

You're angry aren't you ?

'there is nothing about the daily price action of any stock, up or down, that tells you if you should keep owning it or sell it, it is simply if you see greater value ahead based on your knowledge of the stock ..Warren Buffet.'

looks to me that much greater value awaits once market settles and i3e's fundamentally solid business see's higher commodity prices, daily fluctuations are simply that :-)

I'll have a word with stocopedia, lol good job tax losses can be offset on some of the tax, overall a very healthy position considering all the previous headwinds and the fundamentals remain that the sp remains very cheap against the backdrop of FCF, profits etc :-)

They are still working through the last of the warrants so a few sells will appear before they are exhausted soon, the finally we should have a free running sp and say goodbye to the low 40p's :-)

Very decent Investor meet by the bod yesterday, fully explaining the drop in commoidity prices and the need to manage the finances to match market conditions. I3E have the ability to quickly adapt to expected incresases in oil/gas prices and the business remains on a solid footing with growth plans able to be implemented in high or low oil/gas price enevironment. M&A or buybacks under consideration for best use of capital and to return shareholder value.

Dust settling and everyone's adding to holdings....JP Morgan holding up to 8% from 5% & CEO adds 196,318 ordinary shares at a price of 12.7 p , Chairman purchased 470,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 14p

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1676474093321723905

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1676868826242113536

markets can be irrational for some time, case in point #SQZ, increasing FCF, profits, divi and cash pile 50% of mcap..

Market Cap £799.42m

Enterprise Value £366.89m

Revenue £812.42m

Gas prices up on the month and oil up too ...sp curiously down but fundamentals are rock solid with FCF growing daily and there is a clear disconnect between sp and valuation/fundamentals. ..markets can be irrational for some time, howver, from an investor perspective, profits, FCF, no debt, div and options to grow (M&A etc) are the key factors and all in abundance with SQZ.

.if Carlsberg did RNS's - record production in Q2 -new well initiailly adding 7.3k bopd and $75m unrestricted cash..divi & share buybacks continue apace, expecting upgrade from brokers who have 100p to 150p targets.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1676844417485864961

Expect share price to come back strongly for a host of reasons going forward ...Majid

Share buy backs are under consideration as they feel business is valued too cheaply....could be better use of capital than M&A ....