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Barclays raised its Brent price forecast for 2024 by $8 per barrel to $97 a barrel as it expects market balances to tighten further next year.

"Slowing non-OPEC+ supply growth, driven primarily by the US, and persistent underproduction from several OPEC+ producers due to structural constraints bolsters our core thesis behind a constructive view on oil prices," Barclays said in a note.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd to the end of September, adding that it could be extended beyond then or deepened. Russia also said it would cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

Barclays forecasts a supply deficit of 670 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2023 and 250 kb/d in 2024 and recommends going long the $90-$95 per barrel call spread on January 2024

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/barclays-hikes-2024-brent-crude-price-forecast-tighter-balance-view-2023-08-30/

Interest on $100 calls over the next 12 months has risen from about 80,000 contracts in the middle of July to 120,000 today. Calls at $90 and $100 are the two most held strikes over the next 12 months

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-01/options-traders-lift-wagers-on-100-oil-as-market-gets-tighter?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1697604427203387523

OIL MARKET: West Texas Intermediate crude hits $85 a barrel for the first time this year. Brent crude is at $88 a barrell

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUqfgAqw1hw

Brent 87.8

crude 84.8

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUqfgAqw1hw

i3 Energy PLC chief executive Majid Shafiq speaks to Thomas Warner from Proactive after the independent oil and gas company released an interim report and an operational update for H1 2023.

Shafiq shares a comprehensive update on the company's first half achievements and financial milestones, saying i3 Energy successfully completed eight gross wells, contributing to a 9% YoY production increase, despite challenges like facility maintenance and wildfires. The year-end reserves audit for 2022 showed an impressive 80% increase in RTP reserves, reflecting a robust resource base with a 22-year reserve life.

Financially, i3 Energy refinance their outstanding loan notes with a $100mln Canadian facility from Trafigura, strengthening their financial position. They also managed to reduce operating costs by 4% through synergies and contract renegotiations. Additionally, they revised their EBITDA and NOI forecasts upwards by over 20%, driven by improving WTI prices and cost-efficiency measures.

Regarding the perennial question of share buybacks versus dividends, Shafiq emphasises the company's focus on growth and the capacity to deliver high returns through drilling opportunities and potential M&A activities.

H Results – Solid Revenues, Significant Cost Reductions i3 Energy announced solid results, beating our earnings forecast with significant cost reductions. The company produced 20,640 boe/d (WHIe: 20,716 boe/d) in the half, generating revenues net of royalties of £75.5m (WHIe: £75.7m), net operating income of £38.9m (WHIe: £34.4), profit before tax of £14.5m (WHIe: £9.9m) and profit after tax of £10.9m (WHIe: £5.3m). Both operating and general & administrative costs were significantly lower than in the prior half-year and relative to our expectations.

Effectively, i3 Energy has more than managed cost inflation by significantly reducing costs.

We expect oil prices to rise significantly in 2H 2023 and into early 2024, due to a significant tightening of the oil market. We therefore see a strong 2H 2023 for i3 Energy and anticipate increasing our fair value estimate as oil prices increase relative to our conservative WTI oil price assumption of $77.89/b for 2023

The company stated that production in July averaged 22,065 boe/d, which indicates that 20 operated turnarounds and curtailments related to third party infrastructure and wildfires are all in the rear-view mirror. The company is well positioned to benefit fully from rising oil prices.

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-30/saudi-arabia-expected-to-prolong-oil-cut-again-survey-shows?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Saudi Arabia is expected to extend a 1 million-barrel oil supply cut into October,

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1695332263012012503

Windfall Tax harms industrial competition & sustainability. The UK has the most irrational energy strategy and both Conservatives & Labour should think again about the damaging business environment that Britain now provides for the energy sector.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-energy-company-taxes-fuel-follies-nxfrggpzs

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1693928238051930541

added further to holding....

Shell Plc has whittled down bidders for its southern North Sea gas fields to three final contenders, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Perenco SA, Ithaca Energy Plc and newcomer Viaro Energy Ltd. have bid for a package of UK assets that includes the Leman Alpha hub, the Clipper field and the Bacton gas terminal.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-21/shell-is-said-to-receive-final-bids-for-uk-north-sea-gas-assets?leadSource=uverify%20wall,

Production up, profits up, cash in bank up, Free cash flow up, dividend up.....oil price up too 👍

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1688882510283841536

.If Carlsberg did RNS's - Record figures, production up, revenue up, profits up, divi up (4.7% quarterly dividend yield (18.7% annualized)...

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nigeria-Looks-To-Attract-Oil-Gas-Investment-At-International-Roadshow.html

Https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1687086261477986305

Ministry of Energy: Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cut of one million bpd for another month to include Sept. that can be extended and deepened

US credit rating simply dropped the markets, overshadowing any other aspects on any market.....the fundamentals relating to the largest draw are still there and fully expect oil to rebound over coming sessions...supply demand etc and Saudi are to decide shortly (Friday ?) if they will extend cuts to supply through September....

Https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wti-soars-near-ytd-highs-after-api-reports-biggest-weekly-crude-draw-least-40-years

WTI Soars After Biggest Weekly Crude Draw In History

"Oil remains one of the most attractive trades and buyers will likely emerge on every dip," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst after biggest weekly crude draw in history..

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Balloon-On-Largest-Single-Week-Crude-Inventory-Crash-In-Years.html

Crude oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly fell sizably this week by 15.4 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday. Analysts were expecting a draw of 900,000 barrels

The level of disclosed Short Interest in CWR has changed materially.

Short Interest has moved from 1.20% on the previous trading day to 0.67% today. That is a movement of -0.53 percentage points

This data is taken from the FCA and comprises all disclosed short positions above the 0.5% reporting threshold requirement

“It is significant that Shell and BP are attending the meeting given Shell’s £5 billion profits announced last week and BP’s upcoming profit announcement.”

Tomorrow ministers will meet the heads of Shell, BP and other big UK energy players in Downing Street. Government sources said that Grant Shapps, the energy secretary, would ask the companies to look afresh at their North Sea investments in the light of the announcement. Big oil companies have turned their back on the North Sea in the face of more environmental scrutiny and dwindling returns. In May Shell announced that it was selling its 30 per cent stake in the Cambo field — the second-largest undeveloped oil and gas discovery in the North Sea — which is awaiting regulatory approval.

Last month the Treasury announced plans to ease the windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies in an attempt to shore up investment. Yesterday it announced a call for evidence to seek the views of the industry on a “long-term fiscal regime” for the North Sea which “delivers certainty, supports investment, protects jobs and the country’s energy security”.

Ministers hope the meeting will result in concrete pledges of support for new oilfields and gasfields ..

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-carbon-capture-north-sea-oil-gas-licences-scotland-latest-news-89lbx0pr0