Member Info for surprised

'.....The financial press has also reported that the government will make changes to the energy profits levy (EPL). It realises that charging it on all profits rather than just ‘windfalls’ was self-defeating. North Sea operators are cutting investment in the region, hitting jobs, reducing the UK’s energy security, and ultimately increasing the release of carbon as imported liquid natural gas (LNG) takes its place. If the government does modify the EPL, it should improve sentiment towards the sector.'

all as expected and a very positive forward look with a spread of assets and aquisitions in the pipeline ....the sp drop no doubt temporary on the past knowns that had already been detailed in previous updates,, JSE builds from here with a clear plan .

Harbour has a strong asset position in the UK North Sea, with substantial
production and ongoing near field development opportunities to help support this going
forward. The cash generated funds this ongoing CAPEX programme, alongside underpinning
returns to shareholders. The company remains conservative with its balance sheet,
conserving cash that it could then deploy into a new growth region (likely including some
element of acquisition and/or farm ins). We will need to wait for further news as to where this
might be, but the company has existing footholds in Southeast Asia and Mexico (via Zama),
possibly providing a clue.
Shareholder returns have also been increased via the US$400m
2022 buyback programme and US$200m 2023 programme and could always be further
increased in favour of acquisitions. In our view, Harbour's existing position is attractive,
particularly if its hedges roll off . Increasing shareholder
returns have been established, though growth potential beyond existing production levels
currently remains unclear, with the potential for lower production if UK investment is not
retained under the windfall tax. Overall, in a rising oil and gas pricing environment, a
positive outlook for the shares, and 497p total risked NAV.

Broker note out ...

18 April 2023
Totally plc
Position on NHS Wales framework secured
Canaccord Genuity view

New opportunity with NHS Wales: Pioneer Healthcare, a division of Totally, has been
awarded a position on a key new framework with NHS Wales, from April 2023, which
provides for a full range of medical and surgical insourcing services in the region. With
elective care waiting lists in Wales at a record high (735,000 open patient pathways in
December 2022 as per Senedd Cymru data), we note the initial four-year agreement
secures a new opportunity for Pioneer to help reduce waiting lists in Wales. An option to
extend the framework for a further four years is subject to Welsh government approval.
Strong track record of delivery: We note that over the last year, Pioneer has
supported elective care waiting list reduction through c.40,000 procedures on behalf
of NHS England.

This could mean that Pioneer is well placed, in our view, to secure
new growth opportunities via the framework. As per the recent trading update on 2
March 2023, it was stated that Pioneer doubled its revenues (across insourcing and
outsourcing) year-to-date, suggesting an ability to mobilise and scale services quickly.
Insourcing momentum building: Today’s news follows the award of a new insourcing
contract for urology services with the Saolta Group in Ireland, announced on 12 April
2023. The contract is valued at c.£650k and runs from May to December 2023 and could
be extended for a further 12 months based on demand and budget availability.

Valuation: Based on our estimates, Totally trades on a Mar24E P/E of 5x and EV/EBITDA
of 3x. The dividend yield is 6.5%.

We maintain our BUY rating and 40p target price.

Toyota CEO: This new engine will destroy the entire EV industry
H2: Hydrogen-Powered Internal Combustion Engine 'looking like the future of automotive technology'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTawvzH0MQ4

rising oil prices and another ex divi day in May may see very limited short term swing and likely to the upside quickly if any dip ...

Nope, far from a coin toss as detailed in the post, good luck with your new trades

results on 25.04.23 will clearly be a backward look, however, a forward view with a bit more meat will be what most investors are looking too. M&A has been mentioned, with a number of options likely.
So any earning enhancing move along with getting production back on track will be the catalysts. they wont appear on any chart and for most folk, a paper move down is just that, providing the forward look is for recovery, if it takes a week or four longer then to most it is not a problem. Short term scraping a few points is nice if anyone can keep on the right side of those trades, difficult though it is, some stocks are not easy to scrape a few points from regularly and require a longer time frame. recovery here and acquistion is a longer game and from what I see progress is likely to be made on both fronts.

Hi Jeff, I'm simply posting info that's out there, every little helps and there are risks in any stock. We as investors have to decide if the positive aspects out weigh the negatives, macro, local or unforseen. If anyone is massively risk adverse it is likely stocks and shares is not for them.
if i genuienly see a risk ahead that deters me from continuing an investment I clearly say so. Situations change on occasions, so we may need to react. A share price fall intself is not always a reason to sell, as implied by some, as it is simply the way markets work. If you're a short term trader you will be interested in the hourly/daily movements, others can ride it out who have longer time frames. Jumping in and out of shares scaping a few points is ok for some, however, it's a tough ask to keep on the right side of those trades.
in addition it is very difficult to call bottoms/tops, so personally target prices help me based on fundamentals, fcf, profits, outlook etc (just like most folk)...initial target for me (clearly stated some weeks back) is 360p for HBR then see where we are.
in the mean time HBR are paying me around 10p a share to hold on and if all goes well we may achieve a decent divi and 360p, at that pont review and decide next action.
if the WFT is reviewed and reasonable the North sea operators will get a boost. I've seen nothing yet to change my positive view of oil stocks going forward, it's been a tough few months, but it appears demand may well outstrip supply and oil will command a decent profitable price through 2023 on current knowns.
Stocks are a moving changing beast affected by many aspects and not a simple matter, however, we can only make our own individual judgements and having held through the last few months, adding on most oil stocks at lows, i personally expect a rebound for HBR and others over coming months, if that view changes I'll post it too.

the latest broker note issued was by Jefferies who updated their broker price target on current knowns on 13.04.23 with a price target of 360p......we await news on any WFT relief /floor price .

that's what makes a market :-)

'@Surprised the face palm should go to you for ramping Harbour and Serica before they both imploded 50%…Numpty'
I've only just seen thsi post Slater, if you think positive views are ramping, that's your view, however, there is little reason to be offensive...oil stocks in the north sea particularl;y have taken a hit for the reasons we know, , however, there is a view shared by many that despite the hurdles both gas and particularly oil will rebound with profits etc increasing...therfore current prices appear to offer opportunity.

lets respect differing views, share info and hopefully we all benefit

in respect of the face palm that was supposed to relate to a laugh with regard to a previous post, not you or insulting, however you may interpret it.

lol....well it looks like some oil in there somewhere

'Harbour Energy plc is a United Kingdom-based independent oil and gas company. The Company's principal activities are the acquisition, exploration, development and production of oil and gas reserves in the United Kingdom and Norwegian Continental Shelves, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico. It has an interest in the Zama field in Mexico's Sureste basin. Its operations in Vietnam are focused on its operated Chim Sao and Dua oil fields'

Zues broker report 24.3.23

Harbour has a strong asset position in the UK North Sea, with substantial
production and ongoing near field development opportunities to help support this going
forward. The cash generated funds this ongoing CAPEX programme, alongside underpinning
returns to shareholders. The company remains conservative with its balance sheet,
conserving cash that it could then deploy into a new growth region (likely including some
element of acquisition and/or farm ins). We will need to wait for further news as to where this
might be, but the company has existing footholds in Southeast Asia and Mexico (via Zama),
possibly providing a clue. Shareholder returns have also been increased via the US$400m
2022 buyback programme and US$200m 2023 programme and could always be further
increased in favour of acquisitions. In our view, Harbour's existing position is attractive,
particularly if its hedges roll off but oil and gas prices remain high. Increasing shareholder
returns have been established, though growth potential beyond existing production levels
currently remains unclear, with the potential for lower production if UK investment is not
retained under the windfall tax. Overall, in a rising oil and gas pricing environment, we have a
positive outlook for the shares, and 497p total risked NAV.

https://*********************/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/harbour-energy-plc/research/zeus-capital/harbour-energy-hbr-ln-zama-development-plan-submitted/b3554901-b1df-444c-ba0b-f95a99932014

Bloomberg) ? Oil supply cuts agreed by OPEC+ nations last week are putting global markets on track for a hefty supply deficit that will widen as the year progresses, the latest data from the group indicate.

World markets may be under supplied by about 2 MMbpd in the fourth quarter as a result of cutbacks announced by Saudi Arabia and its partners, according to figures in a report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Riyadh and its partners shocked crude traders and sent prices rallying with the supply reductions announced on April 2. OPEC officials said the move was necessary to deter speculators from making unwarranted wagers against oil, but the International Energy Agency, which advises consuming nations, called the decision a ?bad surprise.?

Oil futures have climbed to $87 a bbl in London since the cuts were revealed.

https://worldoil.com/news/2023/4/13/opec-production-cuts-to-cause-hefty-supply-deficit-to-global-market/

Bloomberg) – Oil supply cuts agreed by OPEC+ nations last week are putting global markets on track for a hefty supply deficit that will widen as the year progresses, the latest data from the group indicate.

World markets may be under supplied by about 2 MMbpd in the fourth quarter as a result of cutbacks announced by Saudi Arabia and its partners, according to figures in a report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Riyadh and its partners shocked crude traders and sent prices rallying with the supply reductions announced on April 2. OPEC officials said the move was necessary to deter speculators from making unwarranted wagers against oil, but the International Energy Agency, which advises consuming nations, called the decision a “bad surprise.”

Oil futures have climbed to $87 a bbl in London since the cuts were revealed.

https://worldoil.com/news/2023/4/13/opec-production-cuts-to-cause-hefty-supply-deficit-to-global-market/

Serica Energy (SQZ) has booked a massive rise in its after-tax profits for 2022, even with the hit from the Energy Profits Levy. The North Sea oil and gas company hiked its dividend as a result, taking the total payout from 9p the year before to 22p, on the back of operating profit almost doubling to £476mn. Higher production and higher prices drove the profit surge.

Peel Hunt expects earnings to climb again this year, thanks to the production increase, with Ebitdax (cash profits minus exploration spending) at £864mn, compared to £682mn in 2022. Despite the impact of the windfall tax, Serica remains highly cash generative, and at a low valuation. There is risk in taking on debt now but even if oil and gas prices go south, near-term cash flow should take borrowings down quickly. Buy.

Last IC View: Buy, 352p, 27 Sep 2022

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/04/13/serica-energy-s-dealmaking-prowess-on-show/

lol. no I'm not Mitch, however, I do have a more positive view of the deal than a few posters here, it's what makes a market. I understand some of the points raised by those not happy, however, the deal overall and particularly at current sp levels imo is a good opportunity.
The addition of oil is a real bonus, gas alone imo would have been worse for the sp. Going forward Oil is the place to be and sqz will continue to gerate fcf etc and seek to maintain or increase divi etc....apologies for positivity, however, like many of the share holders, very large and small who voted for the deal I'm happy with it, some aspects could be better, however, that's the same with most investments. Over the next few week/months I fully expect the sp to catch up and close in or above the 300p+ level again ....

https://twitter.com/SericaEnergyUK/status/1646472842945482752

‘The introduction of the Gannet GE-04 Well has boosted total production to over 60,000 boe/d on several occasions during March’ - Serica Energy

Broker hails Tailwind acquisition as it reiterates 340p price target

These results came before the Tailwind deal, which has the potential to boost the company's financials further.

Completed in March, it has already impacted Serica Energy's production guidance for 2023. Production is expected to range between 40-47,000 barrels a day, a 66% year-over-year increase at the mid-point, primarily due to the inclusion of central North Sea producer. The combined company's net production averaged 46,800 daily barrels in the first quarter of the new year.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1012025/serica-energy-broker-hails-tailwind-acquisition-is-it-reiterates-340p-price-target-1012025.html?viewSource=TwitterUK