Member Info for Surfit

Well it was only Seimens, GE and First Solar.
If you look at Germanys intent in wind power development for energy and the fact that the US are on the tip of the investment Iceberg (be a poor analogy).
Friend has moved over there from the UK (given green card), started off as a OnG project Engineer now moved fully across for about 6yrs. Good move on his part.
My problem is in too deep with oilers and should have jumped in the covid lows of mid march.
China is going to be looking around for the right company...just never bought shares in a chinese company...the one I was looking at manufactures electric trucks.
Need to sit down for a couple of weeks and do some serious research....just keep wanting/thinking oil will bounce back and recoup losses. Although bought sold VERY well with RRE.
Rgds Sft

Seimens doing really well, renewables across the board. Stuck in oilers now. Should have jumped across when I could have. Stuck in the gamble that oillers will recover (some) now.
Added some BP as they are now down to their Covid-19 lows.
My Aviva, barclays, unilever and rentokil are my only greens. Rest ALL red.
Maybe worth looking at Subsea7 as they look to make inroads into Renewables but could still benift from any return in PoO sub sea developments/ investments???
Maybe still too early for IAG?
£6k left now for PMO RI.
HUR look to be finished @ my 15p ( small previous profit reinvestment pre covid pre well results)
GLA

Its a mess no doubt but its all about the debt structuring and as ever PoO.
PoO is a variable, if you do not think it will be back to $65 (Brent) then its not wise to invest...unless you want to short on ALL oilers.
If TD can not get decent terms and PoO does not break $55 its another long term service of with out being able to add to diminishing portfolio i.e. further development of Solan, Tolmount and dare I say it SL...if its $65 then Tolmount Solan and debt ( with Andrew and Shearwater producing too) really good in 4yrs ( coupled with tax credits). Still do not see the cash for SL development in the medium term planning though....thoughts anyone.....Zama would not be enough ( I have too many shares in RKH).
Still feel Chryasor+ may have something to play in all this yet.....if they are turning a profit on the +£4 billion investment they have made in the North Sea to date?
Rgds Sft

Many apolagise Happy, Rookie error.
Just looked at my chart and saw the rise. Well at least you were reeeally happy for a second or two.
Rgds Sft

Interesting to see that IAG share price moved up 70% after RI.
I would say that that company as an airline is as much, if not more, dependent on a single step change with regard Covid-19 cure and its effects than PMO i.e. Oil has more factors that can influence it positively or negatively.
Appreciate that IAG does not have the debt but it can see it like PMO had to secure its future.
Something to consider: Chryasor could be helping TD keep his negotiations with debt holders...none the less PMO much look cheap to Chryasor after some of their previous aquistions and with (as others say) the tax credits.
Shell assets (UK) for £2.46bn (stirling)
ConocoPhillips’ UK for £2 billion (stirling)
Just depends if there Canadian pension fund backers (Harbour Energy, in turn an investment vehicle of EIG Global Energy Partners)
have another (track record shows thy are not shy) 2 Billion that they want to put some where...depressed markets are always the best time to buy.
Will have a little look at what cash EIG have?
Rgds Sft

"The new boss of Aviva today stuck her money behind her revival of the insurance giant, spending £1 million on its shares.
Amanda Blanc has bought up 324,887 at a little over 300p a share, two months after her appointment at the FTSE 100 life and general insurer......"
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/amanda-blanc-aviva-1m-shares-buy-a4546831.html

Rock, bit of history:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7767747/amp/Premier-Oil-target-record-132m-short-bet-Hong-Kong-hedge-fund.html

The bit that is not legal, is not declaring your short position.
Still the financial regulator has not done anything to penalise ARCM to date either.
Rgds Sft

If there was any truth in rumours regarding Apache they will have saved themselves a bit.
Not that I put any credance to such...the debtors own PMO.
Rgds Sft

He is a finance guy, as such they are use to being able to hide behind "market" and "world events" to explain losses and with investors continuing to invest its a gravy train.
Unfortunately this is a OnG contruction project that actualy demands an end product to realise return.
Its okay not to know everything if you have the right team around you, which has proven to be woefully inadequate....that he ( and Stewart) still take significant renumaration for their failures is the true reflection of their intent and characters.
Publishing the voting figures would have revealed a lot. Until the larger ii get onboard we are stuck with him; as they only have 2, 3 4% stakes it is unlikely that will happen...if one had a significant stake then they would take the bull by the hirns...but I suspect Sam "Sobel" Moody knows that.
IMO
GLA
Rgds Sft

Given PMO's struggles: debt refinancing, delay and issues over Zama and debt reduction target (i.e. what their intent is and time line is, will be dependent on PoO).
What timeline or where does the cash come from to fund the SL development for phase 1?
As the purchase of BP's assets have proven they are not adverse to buying their way out but that has resulted in a RI's requirement.
So again where would Sealion cash requirment sit?

Thoughts anyone?

Rgds Sft

Thank you for the info and reply Romaron.
TD has been fighting for PMO's survival for quite some time now i.e. since Solans lack of expected production, the subsequent 2012/13 crash in PoO (and this 2020), the really significant spend on Sealion both of which were out goings with less than or presentley no generative income, recentley PMO's exploration dropped $23mil in alaska which following there Zama success would have disapointed TD as previously the dept. had added good ( now depayed by the mexicans) value when badley needed.
I cant not see even if ( not done the figures) that PMO were going to cross the line on current debt repayment hence BP purchase rather than yet another risky green field development and with it assuring the lenders they get their return.
Cant rember what the BP portfoilo breakeven cost is ...$35? Minus pipeline use of charges.
Add ARCM in (I agee they have some cojones) its very interesting and in a way informative for a private investor on what is happening out there in the finance side of lending.
If you look at PMO on the whole as an investor they have faced the full gamut (hence "interesting"...especially when you have "skin" in the game. One thing is assured lecturers will teaching their problems in business/finance schools for years to come.
Its all, as always, down to PoO: $55 conservative $65 realistic but in this day and age not to be fully counted on.
Both venezuela ( biggest oil reserves remain out) as does Iraq and libiya to all extent.
Hopefully investment in shale is significantly reduced.
Lots going on for TD to juggle, he is earning his day rate IMO.
Rgds sft

Re point 2: Had ARCM worked that out hence the short build?
Rgds Sft

I think realyl worth a read, Bloombergs assessment sumarises a lot of the situation.
Note: if only ARCM could have been put into a short sqeeeze. Remember they buit up that undisclosed 17/18% short position.
Hedge Fund Gets a Target to Cover Its Short Position
"ARCM is set to cover most of its bet against Premier Oil by buying shares at a discount. That elegant exit is being provided courtesy of Premier......." read on:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-08/hedge-fund-gets-a-target-to-cover-its-short-position
Rgds Sft
Although
1. As others have said: the delay has saved PMO a lot of money.
2. Before the PoO dropped would it be correct to think PMO eere going to default on the debt repayment?
3. How can PMO tax credits be most affectively used? Can they only be used against development ? Or new asset purchases or decom

Rgds Sft

A bit like this movie SK, you devil (-:
https://youtu.be/JC-ykURLzSg

Rgds Sft

Navitas have moved up 24% since the 12th of August (on that date Brent closed at $45.43)

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price

Not saying there is anything it this % rise, just "grasping" for any positive indicators.

Rgds Sft

Thank you Tarth....have Barclays also.
Rgds Sft

Thank you Grippa.
Your info is aiding me in catching up in my understanding and the bb's chat. Appreciated.
Rgds Sft

My question is will we be given the ability to buy these addtional share? At a discount if so if you hold shares through an investment platform do the notify you?
Rgds Sft

Short tracker not indicating an increase....although after ARCM how much can it be trusted ( if not declared) is open for debate.
Reading the ADFN AndyP seems to feel there is still considerable uncertainty.
Being honest I cant get my head around/understand the effects of the RI. Will have to read up more to try and understand.
Rgds Sft

Hoper, i am leaning toward the RI being the driver on current sp value...hoping the institutionals been built it in already?
Hopefully that will be out before Tolmount has arrived on station and safely deployed and landed correctely on seabed.
Its going to be an interesting September.
GLA
Rgds Sft