Member Info for Surfit

There does need to be better renumeration for share holders as said on the bb: the full focus has been on the creditors, they have been part of the negotiations not the share holders so a no vote puts it back to Chryasor. The problem is what is the value that share holders would accept? LTH have a different value to the daytraders that jumped in for the hope of a larger profit other than their previous 5% trades (or even 2% a profit being a profit, as I seem to remember)
With PoO going up LTH may get some of their investment back over time rather than potential loosing the lot. TD has not been able to escape Solans debt, the ARCM play and given in to them. He has full capitulated and either ran away/given up or been asked to leave. He failed basically.
Rgds Sft

I fully agree Rot1, What I particularly like is this comment from Linda Cook:
"Cook said of the deal: "It significantly advances our leading position in the North Sea, where we will continue to reinvest, and expands our geographic footprint to Asia and Latin America. We are excited by the Premier assets in these regions and view them as the foundations upon which to build material portfolios and further diversify the company."
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/premier-oil-north-sea-chrysaor-harbour-a4564221.html

We now have some real hope again.
Rgds Sft

Hey SK I think your wrong, just my opinion but its the assets that have made the deal workable.
Consider Chyasors operating expendeture were according to the artical I readposted from June 20 at $11 boe
Adding PMOs assets of Solan, Catcher, Tolmount BP's Shearwater/Andrew fits perfectley with their precived stratagy i.e. safe and known producers and North Sea geopolitical location. Sea lion is up for debate but I also belive it potential sits well, especially if tthey have low exposure in Argintina (or South America) and the feed has been completed.
The consoladation of debt was the only way PMO were going to get rid of the monkey on their back and PMO opetating expenditure is not as bad as many i.e. BP, Shells etc etc.
I am a long term holder so it sits reasonabley well with me...TD had IMO very few options left especially with ARCM having grabbed such influence.
With Goldman S predicting PoO $65 Q3 $56 Q4 2021 and the Saudies seeing $55 ave up to 2023 (hope not). Its was the only way...all just imo.
Rgds Sft

Too harsh fudstone (IMO). If all irregular poster are treated such.
Lets not attack just because someone post a bit of potential positive. If that occurs we decend into adfn.
This board is fairly stable now, (and ADFN into chaos) if not rather despondent, with reason of course.
We need people on side to galvanise a share holder vote. There will be lot out there that may just listen in.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Any good news will do me at this stage Tex, even if I can not take it too the bank (-;
Waiting for PoO
Waiting for PMO to get debt refinanced and fit this project in as they repay that debt?
Waiting for Navitas
Waiting for UKEF (Required or not, not sure anymore...but belive if not the more funding sourcing required)
Waiting for OM payout, to keep Sam Sobel in the manner he is accustomed to.
Waiting for next vote to try (again) and remove the Sam Sobel Moody and his 2ic
Have I missed anything
"We should be home for Christmas lads" (-:
Rgds Sft
GLA

We would be in a right pickle if future storms burnt out the windfarm generators too!
Rhds Sft

Doubling down: When I look in the mirror. I wonder how many (other) oiller invester have.

Chryasor low operating cost, deep pockets. Ask this question if your stratagey is expansion do you buy in a expensive market or a distressed one.
If they do not buy then I would say their and the groups stratagey (maybe toward investing in hydrocarbons) will have been totaly changed.
Just trying to follow bread crumbs of course.

Rgds Sft

Probabley right, should have added a ? at the end.
But with Chryasors connection to Solan.
https://www.offshore-mag.com/field-development/article/16795145/premier-aiming-to-partner-chrysaor-in-solan
Could it work: in that was that were a % of those tax credits were gained?
Not knowing for sure just looking at potentials.
Rgds Sft

If you belive this artical from June 2020

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/062220-north-sea-focused-chrysaor-eyes-more-acquisitions-after-conocophillips-deal

Selling Solan would be the fit for those "talks".
Especially if the tax credits went with the assets.

A merger, although also a good fit for the companies, and prossibley a must for for many smaller oil companies it may also not be impossible
PMOs debt must be brought together under a cleaner arrangement. So could 45% of the stable creditors be onboard and a consolidation and buy off of the remaining be acceptable to Chyrasor. i.e. what level of debt is acceptable when taken up under one entity. Could TD have been in talks with the Chraysors sponsors?
In my opinion Chryasor will have a big play in the resolve of PMO future.
Rgds Sft

Keep your powder dry: I have no idea on oil for the present.
There seem to be a lot of doom and gloom.
Total recentely also came out saying the belive peak demand is reached by 2030 ( I take that is covid as side). Focus on LNG for future.
Saudi Arabia must look VERY vunerable if they can not get it back up ( estimates have been they need $80, so where does that leave them).
Goldman S predicting $65 for Q3 2, although can that be trusted...i.e. are they exiting slowley).
BP oil trading arm reportedly making them 2bil profit but continue to diversify to renewables..but with no where near the same return as oil.
Libyia back in production but Venuzeala out ( they could have been the worlds largest producer).
Airlines predicting no return to normal until 2023!
With Europe heading away from big reliance on oil for energy eg Germanys ambition to be:
https://www.evwind.es/2020/06/12/germany-adopts-national-energy-climate-plan-and-an-ambitious-hydrogen-strategy/75117
Is a good example.
Mmmmmmm is very accurate SK? Me too (not the Holywood type that is).
Rgds Sft

Hey Happy, I agree that would not be the whole picture for sure, but too be honest was not expecting to get such i.e. whilst talks are ongoing. None the less it does help.
One other interesting artical in oil price news was regarding BP and their intent (or attempts) at diversification
".........The supermajor plans to increase investments in low-carbon businesses to $5 billion annually as part of its transition, stop oil and gas exploration in new countries and reduce oil and gas production by 40 percent by 2030......"
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BPs-Stock-Price-Crashes-To-The-Lowest-Level-In-25-Years.amp.html

Can TD get away with asking for a further 70mil off the asking price....maybe not as far fetched as we think?
Interesting point Andypop made over on ADFN stating ARCM's value of their short is 48milion (just over 6% NOW not as before) balanced against their PMO investment would indicate it would not be in their interests to force PMO to go under?
None the less they (ARCM) are pretty adept at playing the financial game for sure.

Unless its being made by the Chinese, who work to a less "contrained" business/payment model than western companies are now required to do.
Sft

....and what is important to remember, from an investors point of view, in a location that is stable and free of skitish political / corrupt goverments. Not many of the big oil producing regions that can make that claim. That too has to be factored in.
Although investment in hydrocarbons may not get the support it once did, security for the term of the investment in a region/ location must play a significant factor in investment choice (imo).
Rgds Sft

Hello Happy had an email off PMO, after I asked a few question regarding timings on RI.
As of a few days ago they replied terms were negotiated with a subset of the creditor group representing over 45% of PMO debt facilities.
They stated there is no definitive time frame in which the creditors have to lock up to the terms
But they are are pushing to get to the 75% threshold by the end of the month.
Once they have reached that 75% threshold, they can then set about implementing the proposed refinancing via a court process and, in parallel, launch the equity process both of which have a defined timetable. 
They are expecting be in a position to announce the results of the placing and to launch the open offer in mid to late October.
Hope that helps?
Rgds Sft

Even worse, he has realised he can do what he wants and no one to stop him.
Rgds Sft

Or are the buyers waiting for a lower share price to grab a real bargain? Only 1p off the all time low folks.
Weldone Sam Sobel: cracked it £375, 000 per year, plus 1million free share ( although that may not be working out). First class tickets and accomadation all on take what you want expenses.
AND how do we get rid of the man? Its really mad when you think about it.
Start working out how to remove him.
You could replace him and Stu with 1x retired oil excutive for 100k per annum to baby sit whole senario from his bungalow office.
Its all down to PMO and Navitas after all.
Rgds Sft

Does make you wonder, that at this SP value, no debt ( still cash positive, for now), the "potential" award from OM, the free carry from PMO, the % acerage of SL and isobel that have proven "potential" that RKH has not been taken over? Just can not understand why. It impossibley cheap, why are the likes of oil energy investor groups NOT stepping in? As some say it a bargin.
Confusing to say the least.
Rgds Sft

Not sure why creditors would want to take over a company especially an oil company. Lenders lend for a return on their investment. Pretty sure banks do not want to get into the home ownership business, they foreclose if the debt is not getting repaid or will get defaulted on through loss of job or income. TRUE PMO have not been able to meet the time line expected, this is due to world events. The business model remains sound. Terms have to have been renegotiated due to the 2nd PoO drop. The creditors still realise a return on their investments. They foreclose if they do not belive PoO will ever recover, but then its a fire sale on assets in a market where there are not many (if any) buyers. ARCMs actions have resulted in TD getting a better price ( due to the same world events) on the BP assets.
PoO remains the win or fail on any oil company.
The same problem that has hit all that invested in shale, all though in that example it has proven the figures can be manipulated ( productivity / life of field) so the investment returns are not being realised at all.
At last count all creditirs supported the BP purchase at the original price ARCM were the only ones that did not...I feel it is because they a have a different "lending" model to what is the norm. Am I correct in saying that they purchased their position from others. What I do not know and ask is what was their original buyin position, were they part of the original investment round and by how much did they increase it and how quickley. Their speciality seems to be very Gordon Geko.
Rgds Sft

Wonder what Sam "Sobel" Moody and Stu'y do all day?
1. Plan for the weekend: "Gymkhana, chukkas or Cote d'azur Stu'y?"
2. Spin a roulette wheel with little companies we can buy if OM pays out.
3. Party like Jordan Belfort and Donnie Azoff
4. Keep ringing Tony Durrant and asking: "Are we there yet?" Then crack up laughing.
5. Keep ringing Gideon Tadmor and asking: "Oi vey, are we there yet?" Then crack up laughing.
6. Look at each other when the phone rings and go "I answered last time, your turn"
7. Play rock, paper, scissors for who makes the drinks after 12
8. Throw darts for next bonus number always using 5 darts for cash and 6 for share allocation.
(-:
On a more serious note: Go visit ADFN its like a movie set over there (-:
Rgds Sft

With ARCM reportedly (retuers) wanting to auction 200 million their PMO debt is it because they can not now cover it with a short they deem sufficient? Having now/recentley reduced it to 6.19%. Could not increasing that short again have been part of the deal / negotiations held with PMO and ARCM. If PMO can not settle that 200mil nor cover it then they may want to reduce their exposure?
Thoughts
Rgds Sft