Member Info for Superjim

Agree Bunco, that's the only way I see it. But as I said earlier NWF shares would need to open below A$0.13 for people not to make a profit at todays buy in price which is nearly a 50% drop from the level they got suspended at and a 45% drop from the theoretical ex rights price. Even if they do open lower, as you say it certainly shouldn't be long before they are back up. Bear in mind the recent A$7m placing was at a price of A$0.20 so wouldn't expect the price to stay lower than that for long! In my mind this is still a great opportunity to make a decent profit in a short amount of time and the potential rewards far outweigh the risks. As always, all my own opinion, dyor.

You can now buy at 5.55p. The NWF share price would need to fall to below A$0.13 for you not to make any money from the takeover which seems incredibly unlikely.

I will admit it did give me slight heart palpitations!

Very odd, no RNS as far as I can see, maybe an error?

Apologies Bunco, the entitlement offer is indeed at A$0.15 but the additional A$7 million placing is at A$0.20. Based on the fact they calculated the theoretical ex-rights price at A$0.223 I'd say that the entitlement offer price of A$0.15 is really the very very bottom we could expect for the price and in my opinion it will be closer to the placing price of $A0.20 but we shall see. Either way, I'm making a little bit of profit or a lot of profit for waiting a few weeks which seems good value to me.

Also, to not make any gain whatsoever from buying in today at the current price 6.45p the NWF share price would need to fall to below $A0.15. Please correct me if any of my calculations are off.

To add to this if it were to drop to the placing share price of A$0.20 rather than the ex rights price that would still equate to roughly 8.76p per STEL share so we'd still all be in for a nice payday :D

The theoretical ex-rights price used in the offer RNS which takes account of effect of financing was A$0.223 per share. Obviously this is just a calculation and share prices can go up and down but also consider placing price was A$0.20 so wouldn't expect any lower than that really.

Mukflash - if you don't return the vote then it just increases the power of those who have voted. In this case we already have over 50% in favour and hence not voting will just increase that figure so I wouldn't worry about it.

Good news, that's one of the final remaining risks ticked off the list.

Also I think you'd be surprised just how impatient most aim traders are so even the thought of 50% increase for waiting 5-6 weeks isn't enough because they believe they can make 100% elsewhere overnight. I think you'll see a sharp rise in the few days leading up to suspension.

Apologies for the questions and slight ignorance. Just want to check that I'm interpreting correctly. If all goes according to the latest timetable can I expect to trade the Newfield shares on the ASX from 4th May?

Just double checking I hadn't misinterpreted something. Well worth the wait and slight risk in my opinion.

So offer is at around equivalent of 9.77pps. So wait 5-6 weeks for things to go through and make 50% return? Is the lower price just to factor in any risk?

A couple of Bed & ISAs going through today with the rollover of the allowance.

Would hope to hear something back from the Bots Gov fairly shortly with regards to how they plan to go about re-tendering and if they are open to TLOU's suggestion of an initial smaller pilot scheme to get things underway more quickly. 3 weeks after news of the original decision now so hopefully will hear from them in the not too distant future.

Yep, that's the massive opportunity here, we're talking about buying in at a price less than a third of the fair value estimation. Note how Shore Capital are focusing more on the reserves upgrade and the advancements of offtake opportunities rather than the slight delay in the Government tender process. Certainly huge value to be had here at the moment.

Apologies Zippy, perhaps I should have expressly stated 2P reserves on my post which are indeed up 944% which I would see as something to get reasonably excited about as that number is only going to increase in the future. Cheers Jim

Really have got bargain basement prices here at the moment when you consider that we've just had a nigh on 1000% upgrade in reserves and were in the high teens not so long ago. Take a listen to Tony Gilby's interview yesterday. He mentions that the Botswana Government were apologetic for the mix up with the tender award cancellation and he seemed very confident that they would be much more flexible going forward into the new tender. Why would they be apologetic if they didn't acknowledge it was their fault for rigidly sticking to their tender rules and hence making it impossible for either party to win at that stage? Suggests to me that they will look to change the process and get it sorted out quickly. So imagine that they fast track the new process, we win the award and we are sitting on huge reserves with more upgrades to come. Where is the SP then? All this ignoring other offtakes. All we have here is very poor timing in the order of the news and an incredible buying opportunity. All IMO of course but Tony did not seem like a man who's plan had been torn to shreds, he appeared extremely confident, almost like he knew what work is going on in the background.

I expect President Khama is doing a little dance as well Tom :D